Scott Hoyt
 Scott Hoyt is senior director of consumer economics for Moody's Economy.com. He is responsible for the firm’s consumer forecasts and analysis, and is a regular contributor to the Dismal Scientist web site and to Moody’s Economy.com conferences. He is the lead analyst for CreditForecast.com and is the editor of ConsumerFlow.com. He has done custom modeling for credit and consumer sector clients. His areas of expertise include consumer spending, retail sales and industry performance, consumer credit, and other aspects of consumer behavior.
Before joining Moody’s Economy.com, Dr. Hoyt spent five years as an economist for J.C. Penney, where he did extensive work in the company's credit department. He received his Ph.D. and M.A. in economics from the University of Pennsylvania and his B.A. summa cum laude from Bates College. |
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AnalysisShow: | Nov 18, 2009 | As Federal Support Fades, Spending Faces Test | | Nov 12, 2009 | Wal-Mart Data Indicate That Overall Spending Is Slow | | Nov 02, 2009 | As the Rich Recover, Will They Take the Economy Along? | | Oct 22, 2009 | U.S. Holiday Sales Will Not Drive Recovery | | Oct 08, 2009 | Retailers See Improvement in September | | Sep 24, 2009 | U.S. Household Debt Burdens Dip, but Are Still High | | Sep 03, 2009 | Retailers Still Reporting Sales Declines Amid Consumer Woes | | Aug 27, 2009 | Consumers in No Shape to Lead U.S. Out of Recession | | Aug 06, 2009 | Weak Retailer Reports Continue Recent Trends | | Jul 09, 2009 | Special Factors Contribute to Sorry Retailer Reports | | Jun 04, 2009 | Retailers' Weak Reports Consistent With Spending Outlook | | May 07, 2009 | Retailer Reports Improve | | Apr 09, 2009 | Retailers Report Spending Declines May Be Moderating | | Mar 12, 2009 | Is U.S. Consumer Spending Leveling Off? | | Mar 05, 2009 | Retailer Reports Beat Expectations | | Feb 06, 2009 | U.S. Economic Preview: February 9-13 | | Jan 30, 2009 | U.S. Economic Preview: February 2-6 | | Jan 23, 2009 | U.S. Economic Preview: January 26-30 | | Jan 09, 2009 | U.S. Economic Preview: January 12-16 | | Jan 06, 2009 | Do Rebates Stimulate the Economy? | | Dec 24, 2008 | U.S. Economic Preview: December 29-January 2 | | Dec 19, 2008 | U.S. Economic Preview: December 22-26 | | Dec 05, 2008 | U.S. Economic Preview: December 8-12 | | Nov 21, 2008 | U.S. Economic Preview: November 24-26 | | Oct 26, 2008 | U.S. Economic Preview: October 27-31 | | Oct 11, 2008 | U.S. Economic Preview: October 13-17 | | Oct 08, 2008 | Holiday Outlook: Red Ink, Blue Consumers | | Oct 08, 2008 | Chain Store Sales Weak but Not Collapsing | | Sep 06, 2008 | U.S. Economic Preview: September 8-12 | | Aug 22, 2008 | U.S. Economic Preview: August 25-29 | | Aug 09, 2008 | U.S. Economic Preview: August 11-15 | | Aug 03, 2008 | U.S. Economic Preview: August 4-8 | | Aug 01, 2008 | A Make-or-Break Holiday Season | | Jul 25, 2008 | U.S. Economic Preview: July 28-August 1 | | Jul 23, 2008 | Why Doesn't Fed Sound More Worried About Growth? | | Jul 18, 2008 | U.S. Economic Preview: July 21-25 | | Jul 12, 2008 | U.S. Economic Preview: July 14-18 | | Jul 04, 2008 | U.S. Economic Preview: July 7-11 | | Jun 22, 2008 | U.S. Economic Preview: June 23-27 | | Jun 07, 2008 | U.S. Economic Preview: June 9-13 | | May 23, 2008 | U.S. Economic Preview: May 26-30 | | May 09, 2008 | U.S. Economic Preview: May 12-16 | | Apr 25, 2008 | U.S. Economic Preview: April 28-May 2 | | Apr 18, 2008 | U.S. Economic Preview: April 21-25 | | Apr 11, 2008 | U.S. Economic Preview: April 14-18 | | Apr 04, 2008 | U.S. Economic Preview: April 7 - April 11 | | Mar 20, 2008 | U.S. Economic Preview: March 24-28 | | Mar 12, 2008 | Financial Obligations Remain Uncomfortably High | | Mar 08, 2008 | U.S. Economic Preview: March 10-14 | | Feb 22, 2008 | U.S. Economic Preview: February 25-29 | | Feb 08, 2008 | U.S. Economic Preview: February 11-15 | | Jan 25, 2008 | U.S. Economic Preview: January 28-February 1 | | Jan 11, 2008 | U.S. Economic Preview: January 14-18 | | Dec 21, 2007 | U.S. Economic Preview: December 24-28 | | Dec 15, 2007 | U.S. Economic Preview: December 17-21 | | Dec 09, 2007 | U.S. Economic Preview: December 10-14 | | Dec 02, 2007 | U.S. Economic Preview: December 3-7 | | Nov 24, 2007 | U.S. Economic Preview: Nov. 26-30 | | Nov 18, 2007 | Retailer Woes, Consumers and the Economy | | Nov 17, 2007 | U.S. Economic Preview: Nov. 19-23 | | Nov 10, 2007 | U.S. Economic Preview: Nov. 12-16 | | Nov 04, 2007 | U.S. Economic Preview: November 5-9 | | Oct 29, 2007 | U.S. Economic Preview: October 29-November 2 | | Oct 20, 2007 | U.S. Economic Preview: October 22-26 | | Oct 05, 2007 | U.S. Economic Preview: Oct 8-12 | | Oct 02, 2007 | Holiday Outlook: Weak, but No Disaster | | Sep 26, 2007 | U.S. Industry Outlook: Early Warning Signs | | Sep 23, 2007 | U.S. Economic Preview: Sept. 24-28 | | Sep 07, 2007 | U.S. Economic Preview: Sept. 10-14 | | Aug 24, 2007 | U.S. Economic Preview: August 27-31 | | Aug 20, 2007 | The Consumer Fallout | | Aug 11, 2007 | U.S. Economic Preview: August 13-17 | | Jul 30, 2007 | U.S. Economic Preview: 7/30/07 | | Jul 20, 2007 | U.S. Economic Preview: 7/23/07 | | Jul 08, 2007 | U.S. Preview: July 9-13 | | Jul 06, 2007 | Do U.S. Retail Job Losses Make Sense? | | Jun 22, 2007 | U.S. Preview: June 25-29 | | Jun 11, 2007 | U.S. Economic Preview: 6/11/07 | | May 28, 2007 | U.S. Economic Preview: 5/28/07 | | May 23, 2007 | Moody's Economy.com U.S. Industry Outlook | | May 13, 2007 | U.S. Economic Preview: 5/14/07 | | May 06, 2007 | U.S. Economic Preview 5/7/2007 | | May 01, 2007 | U.S. Economic Preview: 4/30/2007 | | Apr 26, 2007 | Housing and Spending | | Apr 23, 2007 | U.S. Economic Preview: 4/23/2007 | | Apr 15, 2007 | U.S. Economic Preview: 4/16/2007 | | Apr 06, 2007 | U.S. Economic Preview 4/9/2007 | | Mar 25, 2007 | U.S. Economic Preview 3/26/2007 | | Mar 10, 2007 | U.S. Economic Preview 3/12/2007 | | Feb 25, 2007 | U.S. Economic Preview: 2/26/2007 | | Feb 11, 2007 | U.S. Economic Preview 2/12/2007 | | Feb 07, 2007 | Moody's Economy.com 2007 U.S. Consumer Finance Outlook | | Jan 28, 2007 | U.S. Economic Preview: 1/29/2007 | | Jan 24, 2007 | Moody's Economy.com U.S. Industry Outlook | | Jan 18, 2007 | Moody's Economy.com 2007 U.S. Consumer Spending Outlook | | Jan 15, 2007 | U.S. Economic Preview: 1/16/2007 | | Jan 05, 2007 | U.S. Economic Preview: 1/8/2007 | | Jan 02, 2007 | U.S. Holiday Spending Growth Likely Met Our Forecast | | Dec 27, 2006 | U.S. Financial Obligations Stabilize Near Record High | | Dec 22, 2006 | U.S. Economic Preview: 12/25/2006 | | Dec 20, 2006 | More Positive U.S. Spending Surprises? | | Dec 17, 2006 | U.S. Economic Preview: 12/18/2006 | | Dec 11, 2006 | U.S. Economic Preview: 12/11/2006 | | Dec 01, 2006 | U.S. Economic Preview: 12/4/2006 | | Nov 22, 2006 | U.S. Economic Preview 11/27/2006 | | Nov 17, 2006 | U.S. Economic Preview: 11/20/2006 | | Nov 12, 2006 | U.S. Economic Preview 11/13/2006 | | Nov 10, 2006 | U.S. Consumers Keep Borrowing to Spend | | Nov 06, 2006 | U.S. Economic Preview 11/6/2006 | | Oct 27, 2006 | U.S. Economic Preview 10/30/2006 | | Oct 22, 2006 | U.S. Economic Preview: 10/23/2006 | | Sep 25, 2006 | U.S. Economic Preview 9/25/2006 | | Sep 21, 2006 | Holiday Spending Looks Pretty Good | | Sep 08, 2006 | U.S. Economic Preview 9/11/2006 | | Aug 25, 2006 | U.S. Economic Preview 8/28/2006 | | Aug 24, 2006 | Is U.S. Consumer Confidence Weak? | | Aug 11, 2006 | U.S. Economic Preview: 8/14/2006 | | Aug 05, 2006 | U.S. Economic Preview: 8/07/2006 | | Jul 28, 2006 | U.S. Economic Preview 7/31/2006 | | Jul 22, 2006 | U.S. Economic Preview 7/24/2006 | | Jul 09, 2006 | U.S. Economic Preview 7/10/2006 | | Jun 25, 2006 | U.S. Economic Preview 6/26/2006 | | Jun 22, 2006 | Cash Flow Has Supported U.S. Spending Growth | | Jun 12, 2006 | U.S. Households' Flow of Funds | | Jun 11, 2006 | U.S. Economic Preview 6/12/2006 | | May 29, 2006 | U.S. Economic Preview 5/30/2006 | | May 21, 2006 | U.S. Economic Preview 5/22/2006 | | Apr 30, 2006 | U.S. Economic Preview: 5/1/2006 | | Apr 21, 2006 | U.S. Economic Preview 4/24/2006 | | Apr 07, 2006 | U.S. Economic Preview: 4/10/2006 | | Mar 26, 2006 | U.S. Economic Preview: 3/27/2006 | | Mar 10, 2006 | U.S. Economic Preview: 3/13/2006 | | Mar 10, 2006 | U.S. Consumer Obligations Dip | | Feb 25, 2006 | U.S. Economic Preview 2/27/2006 | | Feb 10, 2006 | U.S. Economic Preview 2/13/2006 | | Jan 30, 2006 | Moody's Economy.com 2006 U.S. Consumer Finance Outlook | | Jan 28, 2006 | U.S. Economic Preview 1/30/2006 | | Jan 24, 2006 | Holiday Sales Slightly Exceed Expectations | | Jan 20, 2006 | Moody's Economy.com 2006 U.S. Consumer Spending Outlook | | Jan 06, 2006 | U.S. Economic Preview 1/9/2006 | | Dec 29, 2005 | Debt Burdens Keep Rising | | Dec 16, 2005 | U.S. Economic Preview 12/19/2005 | | Dec 02, 2005 | U.S. Economic Preview 12/05/2005 | | Nov 18, 2005 | U.S. Economic Preview 11/21/2005 | | Oct 13, 2005 | U.S. Consumers Will Keep Spending | | Oct 11, 2005 | Katrina: An Assessment of the Impacts on U.S. Consumers | | Oct 07, 2005 | U.S. Economic Preview 10/10/05 | | Aug 29, 2005 | Katrina: Impacts on U.S. Consumption and Income | | Aug 26, 2005 | U.S. Economic Preview | | Jul 29, 2005 | Record Low U.S. Personal Saving | | May 14, 2005 | U.S. Commerce Department Announces Apparel Quotas Are Coming | | Apr 04, 2005 | The First Step Toward New U.S. Apparel Quotas | | Mar 28, 2005 | Chinese Apparel Exports Surging | | Mar 10, 2005 | Chinese Apparel Exports to the U.S. Surge | | Mar 03, 2005 | U.S. Chain Store Sales Exceed Expectations | | Mar 02, 2005 | U.S. Bankruptcy Filings Declined in 2004 | | Feb 16, 2005 | Possible Positives for Consumer Spending | | Jan 31, 2005 | Microsoft Dividend Will Lower U.S. Disposable Income Growth | | Jan 28, 2005 | 2004 U.S. Income Growth Best Since 1999 | | Jan 27, 2005 | 2005 U.S. Consumer Finance Outlook | | Jan 25, 2005 | 2005 U.S. Retail Outlook | | Jan 18, 2005 | U.S. Retail Sales Growth Expected to Slow | | Jan 13, 2005 | The Best Holiday Season Since 1999 | | Jan 13, 2005 | Retail Data Confirms Strong Fourth Quarter Consumer Spending | | Jan 07, 2005 | Historic Decline in U.S. Consumer Credit Usage | | Jan 07, 2005 | 2005 U.S. Consumer Spending Outlook | | Jan 06, 2005 | Holiday Wrap-up | | Jan 03, 2005 | A Quota Free World | | Dec 23, 2004 | U.S. Consumer Confidence Climbs | | Dec 21, 2004 | U.S. Holiday Sales Are on Track | | Dec 14, 2004 | U.S. Financial Obligations Rise | | Dec 13, 2004 | China to Limit Growth of Textile Exports | | Dec 10, 2004 | Household Balance Sheets | | Dec 06, 2004 | Wal-Mart Sales Weak | | Dec 02, 2004 | Does the Weak November Doom the Holiday Season? | | Dec 02, 2004 | Post Quota Battles Heat Up | | Dec 01, 2004 | Mixed Fundamentals Yield Mixed Confidence Readings | | Nov 17, 2004 | Sears and Kmart Merge to Create Third Largest U.S. Retailer | | Nov 04, 2004 | Holiday Outlook Still Looks Healthy | | Nov 01, 2004 | Spending Rebound Overstated | | Nov 01, 2004 | Retail Inventory Issues | | Oct 19, 2004 | Greenspan: Household Finances in Good Shape | | Oct 07, 2004 | Household Saving Is Important and Likely to Rise Modestly | | Oct 06, 2004 | Household Saving Is Important and Likely to Rise Modestly | | Oct 04, 2004 | Changing Retail Landscape | | Sep 28, 2004 | Redbook Confirms Sluggish Sales | | Sep 22, 2004 | U.S. Financial Obligations Decline | | Sep 22, 2004 | NRF Optimistic About Holiday Spending | | Sep 13, 2004 | Early Holiday Outlook | | Sep 02, 2004 | Manufacturers and Retailers at Odds Again | | Sep 02, 2004 | Retail Sales May Have Fallen in August | | Sep 02, 2004 | Retailers Report Weak Sales | | Aug 31, 2004 | Redbook Not as Weak as ICSC | | Aug 26, 2004 | Decline in Real Median Income Ends | | Aug 17, 2004 | Hurricane Charley May Shift Some Consumer Spending | | Aug 16, 2004 | Hurricane Charley May Shift Some Consumer Spending | | Aug 02, 2004 | Are Consumers Done? | | Jul 30, 2004 | Are Consumers Done? | | Jul 30, 2004 | Strong Income Growth Reduces Financial Obligations Ratio | | Jul 29, 2004 | Strong Income Growth Reduces Financial Obligations Ratio | | Jul 27, 2004 | Redbook, ICSC Surveys Suggest Modest Improvement in July Sales | | Jul 27, 2004 | Wealthy Winning | | Jul 26, 2004 | Wal-Mart July Sales Still on Track | | Jul 15, 2004 | Gasoline Prices and Retail Sales | | Jul 14, 2004 | The Sales Slowdown Has Arrived | | Jun 28, 2004 | High Gas Prices Hurt Consumer Confidence | | Jun 21, 2004 | Wal-Mart Weakens June Sales Forecast
| | Jun 21, 2004 | Furniture Tariffs Relatively Modest
| | Jun 18, 2004 | China Determined to Have Dumped Merchandise Again
| | Jun 16, 2004 | Confidence Signals May Not Be Conflicting
| | Jun 09, 2004 | Home Equity Loan Concerns – Well, for Some
| | Jun 04, 2004 | Differential Impact of Economic Trends | | Jun 03, 2004 | Spending Bounces Back
| | Jun 01, 2004 | Slowing Spending or a Timing Issue?
| | May 24, 2004 | Household Finances Improve
| | May 14, 2004 | Even Wal-Mart Sees Deflation Ending
| | May 12, 2004 | Preview: Little Retail Sales Growth in April
| | May 10, 2004 | Preview: Little Retail Sales Growth in April
| | May 10, 2004 | Financial Obligations Rise
| | May 06, 2004 | Slowing Chain Store Sales?
| | May 03, 2004 | Retail Sales Boom Again | | Apr 19, 2004 | Global Business Confidence Continues to Rise
| | Apr 16, 2004 | Confidence Picture Turns Cloudy
| | Apr 15, 2004 | Apparel Price Increase Likely Temporary
| | Apr 14, 2004 | Apparel Price Increase Likely Temporary
| | Apr 13, 2004 | Quota Repeal: Winners, Losers, and Issues | | Apr 09, 2004 | Consumers Are Spending
| | Mar 30, 2004 | Retail Revision Does Not Alter Outlook
| | Mar 26, 2004 | Confidence Inches Up
| | Mar 24, 2004 | Are Rising Energy Prices a Threat to Spending?
| | Mar 17, 2004 | Consumer Confidence Tumbling
| | Mar 11, 2004 | Special Factors Aside, Sales Growth is Accelerating
| | Mar 11, 2004 | Preview: February Retail Sales
| | Mar 10, 2004 | Preview: February Retail Sales
| | Mar 08, 2004 | Jobs, Please | | Mar 05, 2004 | Household Wealth At Highest Level Ever
| | Mar 03, 2004 | Lagging Wages
| | Mar 01, 2004 | Income Growth Will Support Spending
| | Feb 23, 2004 | Greenspan: Household Finances in “Good Shape”
| | Feb 18, 2004 | Chain Store Sales – Less Than They Appear
| | Feb 13, 2004 | Is Confidence Down?
| | Feb 12, 2004 | Puzzling Retail Revisions
| | Feb 09, 2004 | Bourgeois Propensities | | Feb 05, 2004 | Chain Store Sales Growth Accelerates
| | Feb 05, 2004 | Retailers Exceed Expectations
| | Feb 02, 2004 | The Biggest Threat to Spending
| | Jan 30, 2004 | Consumer Spending Still Strong
| | Jan 26, 2004 | 2004 Outlook for Consumer Finance | | Jan 21, 2004 | Spring Spending Surge?
| | Jan 16, 2004 | Household Wealth Continues to Grow
| | Jan 12, 2004 | NRF Projects Stronger Sales in ‘04
| | Jan 08, 2004 | Holiday Sales – Less than Meets the Eye?
| | Jan 06, 2004 | Consumers Spent at Year-end
| | Dec 23, 2003 | Online Sales Strong, but Small
| | Dec 23, 2003 | Healthy Real Spending Growth
| | Dec 23, 2003 | Consumer Data Remains Mixed
| | Dec 22, 2003 | Hightened Security a Small Threat to Retailers
| | Dec 15, 2003 | Cloudy Retail Outlook
| | Dec 15, 2003 | Service and Durable Spending Higher than Thought
| | Dec 15, 2003 | Saving Lowered
| | Dec 12, 2003 | Is Confidence Declining?
| | Dec 11, 2003 | Retail Sales Jump
| | Dec 11, 2003 | Department Store Suffering Continues | | Dec 01, 2003 | But Consumers Will Spend
| | Dec 01, 2003 | Weak Wage Growth Limits Spending
| | Nov 17, 2003 | Holiday Outlook Remains Strong
| | Nov 13, 2003 | Wal-Mart Sees Cautious Consumers
| | Nov 13, 2003 | New Light on Consumer Debt | | Nov 03, 2003 | Services Key to Fourth Quarter Spending
| | Oct 31, 2003 | Income Shifts
| | Oct 23, 2003 | New Measures of Debt Burdens
| | Oct 21, 2003 | Consumers’ Concern About the Present Situation Still Grows
| | Oct 21, 2003 | Chain Store Results and Holiday Sales
| | Oct 16, 2003 | Good, but Not 1999 Good | | Oct 13, 2003 | Some Lift from Rebate Checks Remains
| | Oct 09, 2003 | Retailers Report Stronger Than Expected September Sales
| | Oct 01, 2003 | Retailers May Be a Drag on Labor Market
| | Sep 29, 2003 | Wal-Mart Sales Remain Near the High End of Plan
| | Sep 23, 2003 | Consumer Outlook | | Sep 19, 2003 | Mourning Our Lost Wealth | | Sep 09, 2003 | Retailers Are Getting their Houses In Order | | Sep 02, 2003 | The Mess We're In | | Aug 07, 2003 | U.S. Tax Cuts Lift Spending | | Jul 30, 2003 | Low Rates Are Not in Your Interest | | Jul 10, 2003 | Don't Count on Consumers | | Jun 26, 2003 | Spending As Never Before | | Jun 16, 2003 | Too Many T-Shirts | | Jun 03, 2003 | Not Everything Is on Sale | | May 29, 2003 | Leading the Horse to Water | | May 05, 2003 | E-Commerce Lives | | Apr 21, 2003 | State of the Consumer | | Apr 15, 2003 | Credit Quality Hits Retailers | | Apr 03, 2003 | Oh, Give Me Land, Lotsa Land | | Mar 31, 2003 | Consumers Bend but Don't Break | | Mar 11, 2003 | As for the Fed | | Mar 06, 2003 | There Go Wages | | Feb 28, 2003 | Converging Incomes | | Feb 11, 2003 | Internet Sales Tax Isn't a Big Deal | | Jan 23, 2003 | Consumers Aren't Done Yet | | Jan 21, 2003 | Sale Ends Soon | | Jan 10, 2003 | Shifting Spending | | Dec 17, 2002 | 'Tis the Season, Regardless of its Length | | Dec 10, 2002 | Elves Need Not Apply | | Nov 14, 2002 | No Inventory Building for Retailers | | Oct 30, 2002 | Boat Dealers Couldn't Care Less | | Oct 22, 2002 | Old Folks Don't Buy Game Boys | | Oct 04, 2002 | Retail Worries | | Sep 23, 2002 | Consumers Are Doing It All For Now | | Sep 18, 2002 | I'm Dreaming of an Okay Christmas | | Aug 23, 2002 | All Retailing Is Not Created Equal | | Aug 13, 2002 | Americans Are Saving More?! | | Jul 25, 2002 | Boomers Are a Drag | | Jul 18, 2002 | Discounts, Again | | Jun 28, 2002 | Lower Taxes Save Consumers | | Jun 13, 2002 | Wealth Turns the Corner | | May 31, 2002 | Energy Prices Matter | | May 16, 2002 | Sears at Rope's End | | May 02, 2002 | Irrational Retailers, but Rational Lenders | | Apr 18, 2002 | Where Creditors Fear to Tread | | Apr 04, 2002 | Debt Burdens Consumers |
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