DataPoints:

Irrational Exuberance Redux

Last year we noted tongue-in-cheekily that, based on the painfully limited evidence of their rare past appearances in the Fall Classic, the Philadelphia Phillies appeared to be something of a contrary indicator. A Philadelphia victory in the World Series in 1980 had preceded a serious economic downturn, while the Phillies' loss in the 1983 championship came just as the U.S. entered recovery.

Such evidence, we reasoned, might justify rooting for the Phillies' to lose—which, as it happened, they did not. And that historic victory over the Tampa Bay Rays, as it also happened, preceded a couple of the bleakest quarters for U.S. economic output since World War II.

So are we convinced yet? Have we decided to hope this year that the Phillies flame out against the New York Yankees?

Nope. As Bloomberg reports:

On a macro-economic level, a Phillies victory in the World Series could presage a downturn, according to analyses by Ryan Sweet, senior economist at Moody’s Economy.com in suburban Philadelphia’s West Chester, Pennsylvania. The Philadelphia Athletics, who since moved to Kansas City and then to Oakland, were the last Philadelphia baseball team to win back-to-back championships. They did it in 1929 and 1930.

“We all know what happened then,” Sweet said.

What happened then has since been named the Great Depression. Sweet produced a study on the eve of last year’s World Series that showed whenever a Philadelphia team won the World Series the economy soured badly, a pattern that held true in 2008.

A Boston Red Sox supporter, Sweet still encourages Phillies fans and Yankee-haters like himself to pull for Philadelphia, regardless of the economic implications.

Go Phillies!