Spring 2009 Conference

Wednesday, May 13, 2009

PennState, Great Valley

Safeguard Scientifics Building

The first afternoon of the Outlook Conference will focus on consumer credit risk, including modeling risk in a volatile economic environment.  A case study will be considered, and detailed consumer credit indicators will be assessed. 

12:30 p.m. – 1:00 p.m.

Registration

1:00 p.m. – 2:00 p.m.

Forecasting Credit Risk in a Volatile Economic Environment

Musser Auditorium

Juan Licari, Senior Economist

This session will consider a case study with actual data from a U.S. subprime lender that did not survive the current credit crisis. Using performance data for this institution, we calibrate an aggregate consumer credit model and perform a series of forecasting exercises. The results of this analysis highlight the importance of incorporating financial and macroeconomic variables into risk management practices.

2:00 p.m. – 3:00 p.m.

Household Credit Conditions

Musser Auditorium

Myra Hart, Senior Vice President, Equifax Consumer Information Solutions

3:00 p.m. – 3:30 p.m.

Coffee Break

3:30 p.m. – 4:30 p.m.

Best Practices in Loss Forecasting

Musser Auditorium

Juan Carlos Calcagno, Senior Economist

Traditional approaches to credit loss forecast modeling have involved predicting the behavior of individual accounts.  Microeconometric models have been used to predict default, delinquency, prepayment and loss, given default outcomes of individual loans conditional on both individual loan characteristics as well as on macroeconomic indicators.  These models can do a fine job of rank ordering the relative risk of individual loans but may miss overall performance levels because of the difficulty of incorporating correlations and feedback effects captured in aggregate models.  This session will discuss loss forecasting applications best practices, which leverage the relative strengths of both micro and macro models in a single hybrid approach.

Thursday, May 14, 2009

PennState, Great Valley

SafeguardScientifics Building

The second day of the Outlook Conference will assess the U.S. and global outlooks.  Policy steps in the U.S. and abroad will be assessed, including how policy may affect longer-term growth.

8:00 a.m. – 8:30 a.m.

Registration, Reception and Continental Breakfast

8:30 a.m. – 8:45 a.m.

Welcome

Paul Getman, Executive Director

8:45 a.m. – 10:00 a.m.

Economic Outlook

Musser Auditorium

Mark Zandi, Chief Economist

The U.S. economy is struggling under the worst recession since the Great Depression, aggravated by a synchronized global downturn.  Prospects for a recovery depend upon stabilization of the housing market, resumption of credit flows, and restructuring of the financial system.  This session considers the prospects for recovery in light of policy steps undertaken in the U.S. and abroad and the longer-term potential for growth.  

10:00 a.m. – 10:15 a.m.

Coffee Break

Concurrent Sessions

10:15 a.m. – 11:15 a.m.

Session I:  Global Roundtable

Musser Auditorium

Moderated by Ruth Stroppiana, Chief International Economist

The credit crisis has dramatically changed global prospects. Financial markets have been badly damaged, the real economy has been contaminated, and global output will contract this year.  Compared with previous recessions, this downturn will be more tightly synchronized, but each region will be affected differently. This session assesses the outlook for the global economy as the deepening downturn in demand hurts exporting nations in all regions.

Session II:  Government’s Changing Role in the U.S. Economy

Sanchez Suite (105)

Gus Faucher, Director

Government spending historically has been smaller and economic regulation lighter in the U.S. than in other developed economies.  The federal role has differed over time, however, often tied to the business cycle. With the current financial crisis and deep recession, the federal government is now taking a much more prominent role in the economy. This session will look at the historic relationship between the U.S. government and the economy, the move toward greater federal involvement, and expectations for the future.

11:15 a.m. – 12:15 p.m.

Session III:  The State of State Government

Musser Auditorium

Mark McMullen, Director

State and local governments are already suffering from record budget shortfalls, and the revenue downturn has yet to play itself out.  With tax revenue from resource and commodity production now adding to the pain, state budgets have no healthy revenue streams left.  This recession will prove to be unique in the breadth of the harm inflicted on governments across tax revenue instruments and regions of the country.  This session will examine how state governments will emerge from the crisis forever changed.

Session IV: After the Crisis: Shape of New Global Monetary and Financial Architecture

Sanchez Suite (105)

Tu Packard, Senior Economist, and Sherman Chan, Economist

The G-20 leaders have promised financial system reforms and established new institutions to provide global solutions to the global crisis. This session looks at why the world economy has become more prone to crisis, why emerging market and developing countries accumulate reserves, and why the current international reserve system may be inherently unstable. The session also will explore the International Monetary Fund's possible role as global lender of last resort and the newly established Financial Stability Board's role as global financial regulator.  

12:15 p.m. – 1:15 p.m.

Buffet Lunch

Lunch will be available in the Main Lobby.

1:15 p.m. – 2:15 p.m.

Session V:  Foreclosures: Cleaning Up After the Party

Musser Auditorium

Celia Chen, Senior Director

The rapid deterioration in mortgage credit quality is at the crux of the economy’s ills.  This deterioration led to the surge in foreclosures, toppled the housing market, sent house prices plummeting, and undid the financial markets.  This session will take stock of current mortgage credit quality conditions and evaluate the efficacy of the Obama administration’s policies to stem the rising tide of foreclosures. The link between foreclosures and house price depreciation will be examined, and the outlook will be discussed.

Session VI:  China: Beyond the Slowdown

Sanchez Suite (105)

Virendra Singh, Senior Economist

China is poised to lead the global economy out of the worst recession since the Second World War. The worst is over in China—and a loud sigh of relief can be heard all across the world. China's expansionary fiscal and monetary policy is working far beyond expectations. All high frequency indicators are pointing to a recovery through rest of this year. Asian and Latin American trading partners are smiling because for most China is their biggest market. The outlook for large capital good manufacturers in the U.S. and Europe has turned rosier following a burst of new orders from China. This session explores the likely contours of the role China will play in the global recovery.

2:15 p.m. – 3:15 p.m.

Session VII:  Shifts in Long-Term Trends for the U.S. Economy

Musser Auditorium

Edward Friedman, Director

What shifts will take place in the pattern of economic growth after the current cycle ends?  This session will review four possibilities.  First, households will have to adjust their economic decisions to much greater volatility in terms of labor markets and asset values.  The result will be higher levels of saving.  Second, businesses must also weigh the likelihood and implications of greater volatility, leading to greater risk of default.  Third, business risk-taking will be influenced by the larger size and role of government over the coming decade.  Finally, the extra federal debt burden will affect the cost of borrowing.

Session VIII:  Monetary Policy in a Global Financial Crisis

Sanchez Suite (105)

Joseph Brusuelas, Director, and Tony Hughes, Senior Director

Some would argue that monetary policy constrained by the zero bound has become ineffective during the global financial crisis. This presentation will argue to the contrary.  Global central banks have not exhausted their policy tools. Monetary easing, be it quantitative easing or credit easing, provides a potent set of tools in financial and economic downturns. Moreover, even in the early stages of the Federal Reserve’s credit easing policy, a foundation for an exit strategy is being carefully crafted.  But risks abound, as is evident from the experience of Japan in the 1990s.  This session examines both the potential and the risks of future monetary policy. 

3:15 p.m. – 3:30 p.m.

Coffee Break

3:30 p.m. – 4:30 p.m.

The Great Recession and Beyond

Musser Auditorium

Steven Wood, President and Chief Economist, Insight Economics

The greatest financial and economic crisis since the Great Depression will substantially reshape both the domestic and international economies. Three significant questions arise: How (and when) will the current recession end and what will the recovery look like? How is the changed political landscape likely to affect domestic business activity and international trade? What does President Obama’s budget portend for the size of the government in the economy and what are the likely effects on the private sector?

All Day (All 3 days) — Main Lobby

Product Demonstrations

Moody’s Economy.com staff will be available to demonstrate all of our products and modeling tools including Credit Analytics models for assessing consumer credit portfolio risk; Global Cities reports and forecast database; the new Moody’s Economy.com DataBuffet; and the many new features of the Dismal Scientist web site.

5:00 p.m. - 6:30 p.m.

Reception at General Warren Inne

All conference attendees are invited for wine, beer and hors d’oeuvres.

6:30 p.m.

Dinner at General Warren Inne

Requires advance registration–attendance is limited.

Friday, May 15, 2009

PennState, Great Valley

SafeguardScientifics Building

The third day of the Outlook Conference will be devoted to the U.S. industry and regional economic outlooks. 

8:00 a.m. – 8:30 a.m.

Registration, Reception and Continental Breakfast

8:30 a.m. – 9:40 a.m.

Industry Roundtable

Musser Auditorium

Moderated by Michael Helmar, Director

Various industries have performed differently as the recession has deepened. Likewise, some will recover more quickly as the economy rebounds, depending on their life cycle phases and also on their responses to various driving macroeconomic factors. This session will look at which industries will be leaders coming out of the recession and which will lag. The Moody’s Economy.com Industry Vitality Index and industry forecasts will be used to provide insight into which industries will fare the best and which will struggle.

9:40 a.m. – 10:00 a.m.

Coffee Break

10:00 a.m. – 12:00 noon

Regional Roundtable

Musser Auditorium

Moderated by Steven G. Cochrane, Managing Director

This recession is spread more broadly across the U.S. than any past recession going back to the mid-1970s.  This session will assess current economic conditions in each region and discuss the pattern of economic rebound expected over the coming two years.  Ways in which this recession may shape the prospects for long-term potential growth in each region also will be considered. 

12:00 noon

Adjourn

Speakers

Mark Zandi, Chief Economist Mark M. Zandi is chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, where he directs economic research. Moody’s Analytics, a subsidiary of Moody’s Corp., is a leading provider of economic research, data and analytical tools. Dr. Zandi is a cofounder of the company Economy.com, which Moody’s purchased in 2005. Dr. Zandi’s broad research interests encompass macroeconomics, financial markets and public policy. His recent research has focused on mortgage finance reform and the determinants of mortgage foreclosure and personal bankruptcy. He has analyzed the economic impact of various tax and government spending policies and assessed the appropriate monetary policy response to bubbles in asset markets. A trusted adviser to policymakers and an influential source of economic analysis for businesses, journalists and the public, Dr. Zandi frequently testifies before Congress on topics including the economic outlook, the nation’s daunting fiscal challenges, the merits of fiscal stimulus, financial regulatory reform, and foreclosure mitigation. Dr. Zandi conducts regular briefings on the economy for corporate boards, trade associations and policymakers at all levels. He is on the board of directors of MGIC, the nation’s largest private mortgage insurance company, and The Reinvestment Fund, a large CDFI that makes investments in disadvantaged neighborhoods. He is often quoted in national and global publications and interviewed by major news media outlets, and is a frequent guest on CNBC, NPR, Meet the Press, CNN, and various other national networks and news programs. Dr. Zandi is the author of Paying the Price: Ending the Great Recession and Beginning a New American Century, which provides an assessment of the monetary and fiscal policy response to the Great Recession. His other book, Financial Shock: A 360º Look at the Subprime Mortgage Implosion, and How to Avoid the Next Financial Crisis, is described by the New York Times as the “clearest guide” to the financial crisis. Dr. Zandi earned his BS from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania and his PhD at the University of Pennsylvania. He lives with his wife and three children in the suburbs of Philadelphia.

Paul Getman, Executive Director Paul Getman is executive director of Moody’s Analytics. Paul oversees the company’s business affairs and strategic planning. With more than 20 years of experience in consulting and research on economic issues, Paul has testified before government agencies and regularly gives speeches on the U.S. outlook for industry and trade groups, nonprofit organizations, and senior corporate management. Paul has an MA in economics and has completed all but the dissertation requirements of a PhD from the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School.

Joseph Brusuelas Joseph Brusuelas is a director at Moody's Economy.com, where he covers the U.S. and global economies for the Dismal Scientist web site. Formerly, he was the chief economist at Merk Investments L.L.C. and chief U.S. economist at IDEAglobal. Joe has completed all but the dissertation portion of a Ph.D. in political economy and public policy at the University of Southern California. He holds B.A. and M.A. degrees in political science from San Diego State University.

Celia Chen Celia Chen is a senior director of the Moody’s Analytics research staff, specializing in housing economics. Celia manages the Moody’s Analytics regional house price forecast models, develops proprietary housing market indicators, and writes extensively about housing issues. Based in the West Chester PA office, Celia has participated in numerous consulting projects, including econometric modeling of regional house price forecasts, consumer lending, and mortgage lending. Celia speaks regularly at Moody’s client conferences and has provided economic commentary on Wall Street Radio, Bloomberg, and CNBC. Celia completed her PhD at the University of Pennsylvania, with a concentration in econometrics and international finance. She holds a bachelor’s degree in economics from Barnard College.

Steven Cochrane Steven G. Cochrane is managing director of Moody’s Analytics, where he directs the research and development activities of the research staff. Steve’s research specialty is regional economics and he manages the U.S. regional forecasting service. Steve also edits the Regional Financial Review, the firm’s monthly publication that analyzes U.S. macro, regional, industry and international trends. Steve has been an analyst with Moody’s Analytics since 1993. He earned a PhD in regional science at the University of Pennsylvania and is a Penn Institute for Urban Research Scholar. Steve earned a master's degree at the University of Colorado at Denver, and a bachelor's degree at the University of California at Davis.

Cristian deRitis Cristian deRitis is a director at Moody's Analytics. He performs consumer credit modeling and analysis with the Credit Analytics group and contributes to the analysis for CreditForecast.com. Before joining the Moody's Analytics West Chester PA operation, Cris worked for Fannie Mae and taught at Johns Hopkins University in Washington DC. He received a PhD and MA in economics from Johns Hopkins University and graduated summa cum laude from Michigan State University with a bachelor's degree in economics.

Augustine Faucher Augustine Faucher is director of macroeconomics for Moody’s Analytics. Gus edits the firm’s flagship Précis Macro publication, covering the U.S. economy, and helps run the Moody’s Analytics computer model of the U.S. economy. He covers U.S. fiscal, regulatory and monetary policy, and contributes to the U.S./Canada edition of the Dismal Scientist web site. He also covers the Massachusetts and Utah economies. Gus gives regular talks on the U.S. economic outlook. He is a frequent guest on CNBC, Fox Business Network, and CN8 Money Matters Today, and is often quoted by international, U.S. and regional news outlets. He has also appeared on the CBS Evening News and public radio's All Things Considered and Marketplace. Gus was a senior economist for six years at the U.S. Treasury Department and taught at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. He earned a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Pennsylvania, with concentrations in labor economics and public economics. He received an A.B. in economics from Cornell University.

Edward Friedman Edward Friedman is a director at Moody’s Analytics. Dr. Friedman prepares alternative macroeconomic forecasts for the Moody’s Analytics baseline utilizing the 1,500-equation macroeconomic model, edits monthly regional and macroeconomic publications, produces forecasts for Texas and its major metropolitan areas, writes monthly summaries of the U.S. financial industry, and supervises a project to expand metropolitan area forecasting to foreign cities. He previously worked for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, supervising the collection of data on cross-border transactions in securities. Dr. Friedman received a PhD in international economics from Yale University. His bachelor's degree in mathematics is from Dartmouth College.

Myra Hart, Equifax Consumer Information Solutions Myra Hart, Ph.D., is the senior vice president of analytical services for Equifax Consumer Information Solutions.

Michael Helmar Mike Helmar is Director of Industry Economics at Moody’s Economy.com and is responsible for industry and state analysis. He also edits an edition of Précis Metro. Prior to joining Moody's Economy.com, Mr. Helmar was Director of Research at the Delaware Economic Development Office. He was also at Iowa State University, where he was involved in agricultural policy research. Mr. Helmar received his master's degree in Agricultural Economics from the University of Nevada, Reno.

Juan M. Licari Juan Licari is a senior director at Moody's Analytics. Dr. Licari is a member of the Credit Analytics group and specializes in financial economics. Dr. Licari leads consulting projects with major industry players, builds econometric tools to model credit phenomena, and has implemented several stress-testing platforms to quantify portfolio risk exposure. He has a leading role in the development and implementation of credit solutions and is actively involved in communicating these to the market. Dr. Licari holds a PhD and an MA in economics from the University of Pennsylvania and graduated summa cum laude from the National University of Cordoba in Argentina.

Mark McMullen Mark McMullen is Director of Government Consulting at Moody's Economy.com.  He covers the fiscal condition of state and local government, and the role that state budgets play in the broader economy. He has developed numerous statistical models investigating industry and public sector topics, statewide growth, demographics, and trade, including Moody's Economy.com’s state revenue forecasting system.  His duties also include coverage of the semiconductor industry, producer prices, and the state of Oregon.  Mark holds a B.A. in Economics from Pomona College, and an M.A. and is A.B.D. in Economics from the from the University of Pennsylvania.

Tu Packard Tu Packard is an senior economist at Moody's Analytics specializing in developing and transition economies. A graduate of Bryn Mawr College and Columbia University, she has published papers on the international business cycle, prototype models for developing and transition economies, the effects of external liberalization on economic performance and social policy implications, banking system crises, and early warning indicators. She has more than 20 years of experience in international economic consulting for clients that include the United Nations, the World Bank, the Ford Foundation, business enterprises, and academic institutions. She has worked in numerous capacity-building projects on monetary, macroeconomic and structural reform policies, state enterprise reform, poverty reduction strategies, governance and gender issues, and the public investment program.

Virendra Singh Dr. Virendra Singh is a Senior Economist with Moody's Analytics. Prior to Moody's Analytics, he worked at the World Bank for three years, the U.S. Department of Treasury for two years, and Global Insight for 14 years. He specializes in international economics and econometrics and his recent work has focused on trade and currency issues. Dr. Singh covers China and Hong Kong and is responsible for Moody's Analytics's global macroeconomic forecast.

Ruth Stroppiana Ruth Stroppiana is chief international economist at Moody's Analytics. Based in Sydney, Dr. Stroppiana is responsible for global macroeconomic research on the Economy.com web site. Dr. Stroppiana also oversees the global forecasting service, including non-U.S. alternative scenarios. Dr. Stroppiana writes on a variety of issues for the Economy.com web site and the Regional Financial Review. She formerly directed EMEA economics in the Moody's Analytics London office and has extensive experience in analyzing countries in the Asia-Pacific region and Europe and in international economic consulting. She speaks regularly at Moody’s Analytics client conferences and has been quoted in a variety of regional and global publications and interviewed by major news media outlets. Dr. Stroppiana received her PhD in economics from the University of Queensland, Australia.

Steven Wood, Insight Economics Dr. Steven A. Wood is president and chief economist for Insight Economics, LLC, an economic consulting firm he founded in 2002 that specializes in macroeconomic and financial markets analysis. Among the firm’s clients are commercial and investment banks, asset managers and hedge funds, central banks and government agencies, and many corporations. Dr. Wood earned his undergraduate degree from Whittier College and his master’s and doctorate degrees in economics from Claremont Graduate University. He is a member of the National Association of Business Economics and the American Economic Association.

Hotels

We have reserved a block of rooms for the nights of May 13, 14 and 15 at the following hotels, which are within minutes of the conference facility location.

All four hotels are about 45 minutes from Philadelphia International Airport. You can call the hotels directly and mention Moody’s Economy.com to get the special rate, or call us with your credit card information and we will make your reservation. Please reserve your room as soon as possible.

Homewood Suites is adjacent to Penn State and has spacious suites with separate living and sleeping areas, voice mail messaging system and data ports, indoor pool, exercise center, kitchens, complimentary continental breakfast/light evening meal, and free local phone calls and shuttle service.

Desmond Great Valley is located just across the street from Penn State and is a full service hotel. The rooms have complimentary high speed internet access and room service. The hotel also has an indoor pool, exercise facility, full service restaurant and pub for cocktails and casual dining. To view, go to www.desmondgv.com.

Sheraton Great Valley is about one mile from Penn State and is a full-service hotel. The rooms have a voice mail messaging system and data ports, an indoor pool, an exercise facility, full service restaurant and lounge, room service, and free local shuttle service. Reservations can be made by calling 888.627.8166.

Hampton Inn is about one mile from Penn State, next to the Sheraton Great Valley. It is not a full service hotel (no local shuttle or restaurant), but it does have a voice mail messaging system and data ports, a business center, fitness center, an outdoor pool, outside room service by American Bar & Grill and coffee machines in the rooms. A new addition is a complimentary hot breakfast bar.

Ground Transportation
Train Station to Hotels/Penn State
Various cab services are available at Philadelphia 30th Street Train Station to take you to the hotels or Penn State. Prices vary, but some services such as Great Valley Cab Company (610.240.7942) have service from Penn State to 30th Street Train Station, Philadelphia International Airport and Paoli Train Station. Reservations are needed and they accept major credit cards.

Airport to Hotels
Reservations can be made with Celebrity Limousine Service (610.651.2800) to bring you to these hotels from Philadelphia International Airport ($120 taxes and gratuity included). Celebrity Limousine will tell you where to wait. Payment can be made by credit card. Cab fares from the Philadelphia International Airport to the hotels are approximately $100.

Hotels to Penn State Great Valley
Homewood Suites guests can walk next door to the conference at Penn State. If you are attending the dinner at the General Warren Inne on May 14 and need return transportation back to the hotel, please notify the hotel and they will make the arrangements.

Desmond Great Valley has a complimentary shuttle service available due to the four lane highway that you need to cross. They will run the service from 7:30 a.m. to 8:30 a.m. Reservations are needed.

Sheraton Great Valley has a complimentary shuttle you can reserve to take you to the conference facility. If needed, reserve the shuttle when you arrive at the hotel.

Hampton Inn guests can call American Cab for transportation to the conference facility. Please call the night before the conference to reserve a cab for the next morning (610.647.1354). Reservations are needed.

Penn State to Airport
You can either reserve Celebrity Limousine Service (610.651.2800) or we can reserve a cab for you.

Penn State Great Valley Campus
The November 13, 14 and 15 meetings will be held at Penn State’s Great Valley Campus (Safeguard Scientifics Building), 30 East Swedesford Road in Malvern. This is not Penn State’s main campus; it is an extension campus and is very close to the above hotels. The conference facility number is: 610.648.3209. Fax service is available at: 610.725.5317, care of Heather Ely.

General Warren Inne
The historic General Warren Inne is located in the heart of Chester County on West Old Lancaster Highway in Malvern (610.296.3637), very close to the meeting site. The dinner is scheduled for May 14, starting with beer, wine and hors d’oeuvres at 5:00 and then dinner at 6:30. This dinner will sell out so let us know as soon as possible if you wish to attend.

If you need any additional information or help with your trip,
please call Client Services 866.275.3266 or email [email protected].