State Forecast Models

Fully Specified U.S. States Economic Forecasting Model

Overview

The State Forecast Model allows users to see the impact of economic shocks at the state level. Individual models are available for all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Guam, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. All models contain complete historical data as well as 30 years of forecasts at a quarterly frequency. Models reflect the U.S. Macro Model baseline forecast and are updated every month.

You can create your own scenarios such as:

• Housing effects
• Escalating business costs
• Tax rate increases
• Natural disasters

Applications

The State Forecast Model has broad appeal among customers from different industries such as commercial real estate, utility, local governments, consumer lending, and retail etc.

The valuable applications include:

• Forming contingency plans.
• Evaluating shocks.
• Preparing forecasts based on your corporate assumptions.

Use the Online State Model in conjunction with the U.S. Macro Model to:

• Import premade alternative scenarios from the U.S. Macro Model and observe their impact on the state.
• Create user-defined macro scenarios and observe their effect on a state.
• Model the statewide impact of a global oil shock.
• Model the statewide impact of a lower federal funds rate.

Key Features

• Web-based—no software to download or purchase.
• No mnemonics to learn—just point and click.
• Easily view the equations, residuals and add factors.
• Automatic data updates for both history and forecast.
• Chart across scenarios for easy comparison.
• Trace through the linkages—which variables affect each other.
• Linking to the U.S. Macro Model.
• Create customized forecasts by adjusting a comprehensive list of economic variables:
  • Labor Markets
  • Housing Markets
  • Income
  • Demographics

State Forecast Model attributes

• Over 200 variables
• Intuitive interface
• Components of income and credit quality conditions not found in other large-scale models
• Updated monthly baseline forecast
• View the State Forecast Model Methodology

Updates

Baseline forecast is updated monthly.