The Moody's Economy.com Case-Shiller Forecast for July 2009 features significant changes to our outlook in the June vintage.

First, the forecasts incorporate Case-Shiller historical data through 2009Q1. Revisions to historical data go back two years. Most of the near term changes in the 110 CSI metro area forecasts are due to the inclusion of this new historical data.

The national price forecast has been brought down slightly. The bottom has shifted from 2010Q1 to 2010Q2. The peak-to-trough decline is 39% (compared with a 38% decline in June). As a consequence, the 2011-2012 rebound is a bit stronger. These changes have filtered down to our state and metro forecasts.