Question
Why do I find additional loan attrition or expansion of the vintage sample after origination that are unexplained by loans or balances in their final disposition from the prior month?
Answer
In addition to loans dropping out of a vintage pool through prepayment, account closure, default, or amortization, there is a reconciliation provided to us by Equifax for outcome “Other”, which is different from the “Other” in the category for Line of Business. The “Other” outcome, which is excluded from any calculations performed by Moody's Analytics, is a flow variable which documents loans that have dropped out of the sample for unspecified reasons. It is the number of accounts that have moved into a miscellaneous status due to a number of potential factors including consumer disputes or late/incomplete trade reporting from data contributors.
The data is available historically using syntax XEQ(LOB)OTH( , $)(RISK)M_(VINTAGE).(GEO). This is concept is also available in all of the downloadable data files and are labeled in a similar fashion. Please see below for an example of this using 1995 vintage data for bankcard loans.
|
Current |
Write-Offs |
Closed Pos. |
Other |
Bankruptcy |
Total Delinquent |
|
xeqbccurm.us |
xeqbcwofm.us |
xeqbcclpm.us |
xeqbcothm.us |
xeqbcbkpm.us |
xeqbcdelm.us |
31-Jul-05 |
3375607 |
55431 |
59557 |
53842 |
17493 |
598010 |
31-Aug-05 |
3285628 |
44007 |
37747 |
21208 |
11292 |
573735 |
30-Sep-05 |
3181813 |
50946 |
46089 |
26499 |
13438 |
540578 |
31-Oct-05 |
3089582 |
42659 |
42163 |
25670 |
14799 |
507518 |
30-Nov-05 |
3013391 |
41298 |
36260 |
18330 |
20983 |
466838 |
31-Dec-05 |
2942383 |
33800 |
37113 |
17681 |
9686 |
439566 |
31-Jan-06 |
2881226 |
24580 |
30155 |
13207 |
3473 |
429308 |
28-Feb-06 |
2826541 |
24630 |
29345 |
20486 |
1953 |
407579 |
31-Mar-06 |
2773289 |
29618 |
42488 |
10866 |
2577 |
375282 |
30-Apr-06 |
2731087 |
21234 |
30900 |
14704 |
1945 |
348701 |
31-May-06 |
2681877 |
21358 |
29115 |
12438 |
1889 |
333111 |
30-Jun-06 |
2623061 |
21678 |
36776 |
9941 |
1970 |
321562 |
31-Jul-06 |
2573239 |
19387 |
25241 |
13720 |
1617 |
311419 |
31-Aug-06 |
2407307 |
21286 |
29492 |
128571 |
2039 |
295963 |
30-Sep-06 |
2443567 |
16426 |
23358 |
-74739 |
1589 |
293069 |
31-Oct-06 |
2354069 |
17310 |
22352 |
56809 |
1658 |
284438 |
30-Nov-06 |
2311371 |
18989 |
21834 |
8429 |
1652 |
276232 |
31-Dec-06 |
2262321 |
20244 |
24755 |
9286 |
1615 |
269382 |
|
Sum of All Outcomes |
Cur + Del + Foreclosure |
Default + Prepay + Bankrupt |
|
|
Active Begin |
Active End |
Terminated (t) |
Begin(t)-End(t-1) |
31-Jul-05 |
4159940 |
3973617 |
132481 |
|
31-Aug-05 |
3973617 |
3859363 |
93046 |
0 |
30-Sep-05 |
3859363 |
3722391 |
110473 |
0 |
31-Oct-05 |
3722391 |
3597100 |
99621 |
0 |
30-Nov-05 |
3597100 |
3480229 |
98541 |
0 |
31-Dec-05 |
3480229 |
3381949 |
80599 |
0 |
31-Jan-06 |
3381949 |
3310534 |
58208 |
0 |
28-Feb-06 |
3310534 |
3234120 |
55928 |
0 |
31-Mar-06 |
3234120 |
3148571 |
74683 |
0 |
30-Apr-06 |
3148571 |
3079788 |
54079 |
0 |
31-May-06 |
3079788 |
3014988 |
52362 |
0 |
30-Jun-06 |
3014988 |
2944623 |
60424 |
0 |
31-Jul-06 |
2944623 |
2884658 |
46245 |
0 |
31-Aug-06 |
2884658 |
2703270 |
52817 |
0 |
30-Sep-06 |
2703270 |
2736636 |
41373 |
0 |
31-Oct-06 |
2736636 |
2638507 |
41320 |
0 |
30-Nov-06 |
2638507 |
2587603 |
42475 |
0 |
31-Dec-06 |
2587603 |
2531703 |
46614 |
0 |
Related Releases
CreditForecast 4.0 - Historical