The Moody's Economy.com forecast for the Case-Shiller house price index will be delayed because of revisions to the data used in the macroeconomic forecast model.  We are targeting August 17 for the baseline forecast update and August 24 for the scenarios.

Through early September, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis is releasing comprehensive revisions to the national income and product accounts. About every five years, these benchmark revisions to the national income and product accounts supplement the annual revisions based on new and expanded source data. Unlike the annual revisions, the benchmark revisions can include new definitions and methodologies and may cover the entire history of a data series. The benchmark sources include the 2002 input-output accounts, the 2002 economic census, and the 2002 annual surveys of merchant wholesale and retail trade. Personal consumption expenditure categories are being changed, and income data are being adjusted.

Because the BEA is releasing the revisions only gradually and because these changes necessitate a reestimation of a number of key series in our macroeconomic forecast model, the August macro forecast will be delayed, which in turn will delay the CSI forecast. These changes only affect the update timeline for the month of August. In September, we will resume the normal update schedule.

We regret any inconvenience these changes may cause. Please contact us if you have any questions.