Fri, 29 Mar 2024 02:32:32 ESTEconomy.com from Moody's Analyticshttp://www.economy.com/dismal/Japan: Industrial Productionhttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/36CABD9C-20FB-4097-B2AC-55CFB2A6FEF6Japan’s seasonally adjusted industrial production index ticked down 0.1% m/m in February, following a revised 6.7% drop in January. Relative to our and consensus expectations for a small increase, the renewed decline is a disappointment. Production of motor vehicles, machinery, and vehicles other than cars fell in February. Output of chemicals and certain fabricated materials rose. Adding to the disappointing reading, industry forecasts for March and April point to a lacklustre recovery in the months ahead. The poor reading adds to a series of dreadful releases which will make it hard for the Bank of Japan to further raise interest rates in the months ahead. All up, the outlook for Japan’s economy looks incredibly fragile.Thu, 28 Mar 2024 19:50:00 ESTJapan: Employment Situationhttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/EA283318-B2C1-42A3-BD6F-06BBAD0227FBJapan’s unemployment rate increased to 2.6% in February, up from 2.4% in January. We had expected the unemployment rate to rise to 2.5%, while consensus forecasts pointed to a stable reading. Part of the uptick reflects improved workforce participation. Still, labour market conditions are wobbly. With slow exports adding to weak domestic demand, employment conditions will stay fragile in the months to come.Thu, 28 Mar 2024 19:30:00 ESTSouth Korea: Industrial Productionhttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/1B8E776A-3505-4154-A229-269C23E7A88FIn February, South Korean industrial production rose 4.8% relative to a year earlier. The increase captures production across manufacturing, mining, electricity and gas. February’s increase marks a deceleration from January’s 12.9% annual growth but nevertheless signals that South Korean goods producers were on solid ground at the start of 2024. Thu, 28 Mar 2024 19:00:00 ESTSouth Korea: Retail Saleshttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/E9853DB7-0DF6-4C64-8947-9B0E90917246South Korean retail sales fell 3.1% m/m in February, contrary to our expectations of a 0.3% gain. January’s result was revised up, however, from +0.8% to +1.0%. Non-durable goods fell in February over the month by 4.8%. Durable goods also fell. Semi-durable goods were the most resilient with sales rising 2.4% m/m. Retail sales not-in-stores rose 5.8% m/m and convenience store sales rose by 2.8%. Pulling down the overall figure were significant declines over the month in department stores, large discount stores and duty-free shops. Although recent figures have been bumpy, and seasonal adjustment is difficult around the annual shift of the Lunar New Year holidays, we expect retail sales to gradually improve through 2024. Thu, 28 Mar 2024 19:00:00 ESTUnited States: Agricultural Priceshttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/42F7F5DC-C66C-4904-B92A-6C67A8E22331In February, the Agriculture Prices Received Index experienced a significant surge, driven by higher prices recorded in both the Crop Production and Livestock Production indexes. This rapid increase will provide a much-needed boost to farmers who have been contending with depressed commodity prices for more than a year. However, it also reverses several months of efforts aimed at realigning agricultural prices with their historical trend. Thu, 28 Mar 2024 15:00:00 ESTUnited States: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Surveyhttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/8F0FE9D4-30A5-4AA8-8C8C-D77FE316306FAccording to the Kansas City Fed’s Manufacturing Survey, factory activity weakened in March. The latest reading of the headline diffusion index fell from -4 in February to -7 in March. Current business conditions weakened. The production index, on net, fell from 3 to -9 between February and March while the volume of new orders index slid from -2 to -17, on net. The main employment index remains positive, indicating more respondents are adding to headcount than making cuts. The prices paid for raw materials index ticked up from 15 to 17, on net.Thu, 28 Mar 2024 11:00:00 ESTChile: Retail & Wholesale Saleshttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/89308A5E-BEBA-4965-8E67-0B0D4CEB6B24The February retail and wholesale sales report was mixed, with retail sales falling 0.6% from January on a seasonally adjusted basis after the prior month's exceptional 3.1% gain. Despite the dip in consumer spending in February, retail sales are trending up, and the top-line index tracking retail and wholesale sales rose 3.2% on a year-ago basis, ahead of our forecast. Retail sales will continue to rebound over the course of the year as Chile's economy recovers from a near two-year recession. However, there will be bumps in the road due to lingering weakness in the broader economy. Retail spending will rise more convincingly in the second half of the year, when interest rates will turn less restrictive and real income gains will quicken. Thu, 28 Mar 2024 10:30:00 ESTUnited States: Natural Gas Storage Reporthttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/8A99208F-3DC6-412A-9EF4-65790A9C70D5Declines in gas stores resumed last week after recording the first build of the year in the previous week. Natural gas in underground storage fell by 36 billion cubic feet, just above consensus expectations of a decline of 31 bcf. Gas stocks typically decline during this week by about 27 bcf. On net, with a decline both larger than expected and larger than normal, this report is likely to give low prices a little bit of a boost. Thu, 28 Mar 2024 10:30:00 ESTUnited States: Pending Home Saleshttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/A234133C-CE30-4F42-B541-D4AC2C80A245The National Association of Realtors' pending home sales index gained ground in February, recovering 1.6% from the month prior. Despite February’s improvement, the series continues to decline on a year-ago basis. From a regional perspective, the Midwest and South advanced, while the Northeast and West lost ground. All four regions are in decline on a year-ago basis.Thu, 28 Mar 2024 10:00:00 ESTUnited States: St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Indexhttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/E432C95E-2094-48FD-8242-AC8A91590436U.S. financial stress was virtually unchanged in the week ended March 22, with the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index declining 1 basis point to -0.94. Equity prices increased in the period after the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement last Wednesday, while Treasuries declined. Thu, 28 Mar 2024 10:00:00 ESTUnited States: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Surveyhttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/113BA1B2-6BCB-4C1F-98C6-F6988060D5EDIn March, confidence unexpectedly increased to its highest level since July 2021, according to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. The final report had the index at 79.4 in March, up from February’s 76.9 and slightly above January’s 79. Confidence remains impressively up from November’s 61.3. Inflation expectations dipped despite increases in gasoline prices, suggesting consumers may be discounting those as seasonal. Median 12-month inflation expectations dropped from 3% to 2.9%. Five-year expectations dipped from 2.9% to 2.8%. The change in confidence from February was driven by the present conditions component, which rose 3.1 points. The expectations component advanced 2.2 points. The large revision from the preliminary 76.5 was seen in both components.Thu, 28 Mar 2024 10:00:00 ESTCanada: Earnings, Hours and Employmenthttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/FF688002-22C2-4649-9DF2-B9AFC560DA7CPayroll employment tallied a strong gain to start the year. Payrolls rose 39,800 in January compared with the prior month. The latest performance confirms the reacceleration of job growth in early 2024 previously reported by the timelier, yet less accurate, Labour Force Survey. The labor market appeared to be losing momentum in the final months of 2023, but incoming data suggest some new-found strength. In fact, annual wage growth accelerated slightly to start the year, running at 3.9%.Thu, 28 Mar 2024 08:30:00 ESTCanada: Gross Domestic Product by Industryhttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/8C7CE68B-1D16-4C52-AC2E-FEF54D84B9D2Kicking off 2024, real gross domestic product rebounded 0.6% in January. Service-providing industries led the charge with a 0.7% boost while goods-producing nudged ahead, increasing 0.2%. All told, growth was broad-based, with 18 of the 20 industrial sectors recording gains. This comes after several months of little or no change in month-to-month output. On a year-ago basis, output increased only 0.9%. Thu, 28 Mar 2024 08:30:00 ESTUnited States: GDPhttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/B484032E-195D-4613-AE50-58D5B2E1A651U.S. economic growth slowed in the fourth quarter, though only modestly. Real GDP growth declined from a clearly unsustainable 4.9% in the third quarter to a still unlikely to be sustained 3.4% in the fourth quarter according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ third estimate. Consumer spending was the largest contributor as large third-quarter support from inventories became a drag. Trade grew as a support, government spending continued to contribute, and fixed investment continued to grow at a healthy clip. The saving rate dropped to 4% from 4.3% in the third quarter but remained above it 2022 lows. Profits increased 4.1% (not annualized) after increasing 3.4% in the third quarter. Gross domestic income rose 4.8% after rising 1.9% previously.Thu, 28 Mar 2024 08:30:00 ESTUnited States: Industry GDPhttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/575FF5B8-3C55-48E1-A58F-591D18CBAA46Private industries contributed 3.05 percentage points to real GDP’s 3.4% annualized gain in the closing quarter of 2023. The remaining 0.35 percentage point came from government. Manufacturing and retail trade were the largest contributors, adding 0.85 and 0.51 percentage point, respectively. Wholesale trade and arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation and food services were the largest drags, subtracting 0.08 and 0.05 percentage point, respectively.Thu, 28 Mar 2024 08:30:00 ESTUnited States: Jobless Claimshttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/6E53AEE2-FB6C-4F9C-9E61-941D17D1DA6CAs expected, U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance continue to hold steady. New filings fell slightly to 210,000 in the week ended March 23, while the four-week moving average ticked slightly lower to 211,000. Continuing claims have also been holding in a narrow range and edged 1.82 million higher in the week ended March 16, while the insured unemployment rate held steady at 1.2%.Thu, 28 Mar 2024 08:30:00 ESTBrazil: Employment Situationhttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/771CE944-29FC-4269-A85C-D89D68B8D7AEBrazil’s unemployment rate rose in February affected by the typical seasonal factor at the start of the year. The economy created jobs, but the amount was insufficient to absorb the additional number of job seekers. The unemployment rate increased to 7.8% in the rolling quarter ending in February from a rate of 7.6% in the previous three-month period, but down from 8.6% a year before.Thu, 28 Mar 2024 08:00:00 ESTChile: Employmenthttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/93418C14-7559-45EA-B36B-23864062A86AThe labor market slowly improved in February amid the incipient economic recovery. Indeed, the national unemployment rate (not seasonally adjusted) averaged 8.5% in the December-February period, slightly up from 8.4% a year earlier. The economy added 280,000 jobs compared with a year earlier in this period, still not enough to offset the increase in the labor force of about 320,000. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate increased compared with a year earlier but remained below pre-pandemic levels. Labor market conditions will gradually improve in upcoming months, as the recovery gains momentum. Thu, 28 Mar 2024 08:00:00 ESTChile: Manufacturing Productionhttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/4344F484-979F-4560-8F46-7E025BBB9CD2National manufacturing production gained steam in February as the domestic market felt the relief provided by the monetary relaxation in place. All three sectors reported an annual advance. Total industry also posted additional growth. Manufacturing production reported an annual increase of 8.8% in February after a rebound of 6.5% in the previous month and a contraction of 3.5% a year before. Total industry increased 7.9% in February after advancing 3.7% in the previous month and falling 0.9% a year before.Thu, 28 Mar 2024 08:00:00 ESTBelgium: Consumer Price Indexhttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/6EB0C694-034C-48B2-9661-1EC51DDE05FCIn March, Belgium’s CPI inflation rate remained unchanged from February, ringing in at 3.2% year on year. The headline stands above the euro zone average, but still compares positively with the 6.7% reading in March 2023. Competing pressures from declining inflation for goods, and reversing base effects in energy kept the inflation rate steady. Prices in the housing, water and energy sector have turned positive, negating some of the downward pressure on the headline from declining inflation for food and nonalcoholic beverages. Elsewhere, service inflation also advanced modestly. On the upside, core inflation has decreased for the 10th month in a row. In the months ahead, we expect gradual convergence to the European Central Bank's target of 2%.Thu, 28 Mar 2024 06:30:00 ESTGermany: Unemploymenthttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/8A31D759-4C09-4644-B2FA-AA6CCE8DB170In March, Germany's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 5.9%, unchanged from the previous month, and marking the highest level since May 2021. The number of unemployed continued to drift higher and vacancies slid for a second consecutive month. As the Ifo employment barometer for the month was still deep in contractionary territory, it's clear the labour market is weakening. We expect the unemployment rate to tick up as jobs in manufacturing and construction are put on hold, awaiting a rebound. Hiring in services is likely to keep a lid on sudden or significant increases in the unemployment rate.Thu, 28 Mar 2024 05:00:00 ESTGermany: Retail Saleshttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/955279B4-6493-49A3-8692-14BE90B72476In February, Germany experienced a 1.9% decline in retail sales from the previous month, an acceleration from a slightly revised drop of 0.3% in January. This downturn marks the fourth consecutive month of shrinking retail trade, hitting the most rapid decline since October 2022. Sales in the food sector dipped by 1.7%, while nonfood sales saw a 1% reduction. On an annual basis, retail trade fell by 2.7% in February, the fourth consecutive month of decline and the quickest decrease in five months. The constant price index is now around the levels seen in late 2018.Thu, 28 Mar 2024 04:00:00 ESTUnited Kingdom: GDP - Quarterlyhttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/E85572C6-CCFE-48EF-AC5B-1BB9F94C8100U.K. GDP fell 0.3% quarter over quarter in the fourth quarter, building on a 0.1% decline in the third quarter; the U.K. is now entering a technical recession defined by at least two consecutive quarters of negative growth. All sectors contributed to the fourth-quarter contraction, but most disappointing was the third consecutive contraction in service output. Looking at the demand side of the economy, the biggest drags came from net trade and inventories, but consumer spending also fell. While the results are dire, real wages are growing again, labour markets remain tight, and confidence is improving. This suggests the economy will slightly pick up pace in the first half of 2024. We are forecasting GDP to grow 0.3% in 2024 after a 0.1% rise in 2023.Thu, 28 Mar 2024 03:00:00 ESTThailand: Industrial Productionhttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/CF62252F-28D2-4705-B826-E6F6ED7E59CCThailand’s industrial production fell 2.8% year on year in February, building on a 2.9% drop in January. Our and consensus expectations were for a larger fall. On a seasonally adjusted basis, industrial production rose 2.8% month on month. Slow global demand and weakness in key export markets such as Japan and China will weigh on Thailand’s industrial production index, at least through the first half of 2024.Thu, 28 Mar 2024 01:00:00 ESTAustralia: Retail Saleshttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/3A8C4905-6B40-4066-BF94-B8015D1A3257Retail sales in Australia grew 0.3% month on month in February, down from 1.1% in January. The prior result was flattered by changing spending patterns causing choppiness in seasonally adjusted data. Looking to the trend data, retail sales grew just 0.1% from January.Wed, 27 Mar 2024 20:30:00 ESTUnited States: Oil Inventorieshttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/F9254DAE-24CA-4E81-B521-62717B60BC35Oil prices could move down after building by 3.9 million barrels in the week ended March 22, besting consensus predictions a 1.2-million barrel draw. Gasoline inventories rose by 1.3 million barrels, breaking the seven-week streak of inventory draws and defying analyst predictions of a 1.7-million barrel draw. Distillate inventories fell by 1.2 million barrels after the consensus expected a build of 100,000 barrels. During the last four weeks, total U.S. demand was up by 2.2% compared with a year earlier. Wed, 27 Mar 2024 10:30:00 ESTMexico: Employment Situationhttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/E0F4A140-2900-48CD-9151-BFCE0C7329C4Mexico’s unemployment rate adjusted down in February after a seasonal rebound in January, as the economy is gaining steam and creating more temporary jobs given the positive effects of the political cycle. In February, the unemployment rate was 2.5% after 2.9% in January and 2.7% a year before. Seasonally adjusted figures contracted on a monthly basis by 0.3%.Wed, 27 Mar 2024 08:00:00 ESTMexico: Trade Balancehttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/EF5E677E-D786-47B4-95E5-175766B4E74CMexico’s trade balance stayed in negative territory in February even though exports and imports advanced positively in an environment of a strong peso. Exports reported double-digit growth propelled by both oil and nonoil sales. In February, the trade balance reported a deficit of $585 billion after a negative result of $4.315 billion in the previous month and a deficit of $1.889 billion a year before. In the first two months of the year, the trade balance accumulated a deficit of $4.899 billion compared with a deficit of $5.995 billion in the period of 2023.Wed, 27 Mar 2024 08:00:00 ESTFrance: Job Seekershttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/E4BC965D-8DB7-4A72-8B32-CC8933F12710In February, the number of job seekers in France declined by 15,800 to 2.81 million. The number of job seekers fell across all age groups, with prime-age workers showing the largest decline. The latest reading reveals that the French labor market is holding its own amid weaker economic growth. However, joblessness remains above year-ago figures and the labor market is no longer tightening. Economic activity will remain tepid in the coming months and the unemployment rate will rise modestly as weak demand makes its way to the job market. Wed, 27 Mar 2024 07:00:00 ESTUnited States: MBA Mortgage Applications Surveyhttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/69DB8840-1150-4F7C-B704-7EF0E6783677Mortgage activity fell slightly in the week ending March 22, which marks the second straight week that applications ticked down. The MBA’s market composite index decreased 0.7% on the previous week, which followed a 1.6% decrease the week before. Both indexes declined, though the refinance index performed worse, falling 1.6% compared with the purchase index’s 0.2% decrease. Mortgage rates decreased after climbing slightly in the preceding week. The 30-year fixed mortgage declined 4 basis points coming in at 6.93%. Wed, 27 Mar 2024 07:00:00 ESTDenmark: GDPhttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/FB98B8D5-06E8-42E1-9965-45AF18864289Danish GDP growth measured 2% quarter over quarter in the fourth quarter of 2023, up 0.6% from its preliminary estimate. Private consumption led the way, up 1.7% q/q, driven by a large increase in vehicle purchases. Exports jumped 5.7% q/q, while imports increased by a smaller 1.1%. Gross capital formation declined 6.6% q/q. This added to the 1.7% drop the previous quarter as investment in transport and intellectual property declined. During the fourth quarter, the number of hours worked increased 0.1%, while total employment was flat. Wed, 27 Mar 2024 06:00:00 ESTEuro Zone: Business and Consumer Sentimenthttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/0D540EF9-16F7-43CF-AF57-69628AF0D39BThe euro zone’s economic sentiment indicator rose to 96.3 in March from 95.5 in February, marking the highest reading since December. The result remained nonetheless below 2023’s average of 96.4. Across sectors, improvements in sentiment were recorded everywhere except building activities, where confidence fell further into negative territory. On the upside, consumers were the least downbeat in more than two years. Elsewhere, the employment expectations index increased marginally from February, but at 102.6, it remained below last year’s readings. While March’s improvement may suggest confidence has bottomed out, demand conditions in the euro zone remained very weak across all sectors—especially in industry—chiming in with our meagre baseline growth forecast for 2024. Wed, 27 Mar 2024 06:00:00 ESTSpain: Retail Saleshttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/92DEFABF-17FF-4A33-957F-5B1B508A15F1In seasonally adjusted and calendar-adjusted terms, Spain’s retail sales expanded 0.5% month over month in February. This follows a 0.4% contraction in the previous month. The positive print was driven by higher sales in food and household equipment categories, compared with the previous month. In year-ago terms, retail sales gained 1.9% after increasing 0.5% in January. Spain’s retail sales will remain erratic in the near term as consumers continue to behave cautiously.Wed, 27 Mar 2024 04:05:00 ESTSweden: Monetary Policyhttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/0155EDF1-6622-4633-84A9-907F280A4EB4Sweden’s Riksbank left its policy rate unchanged at 4% during its March meeting. This was widely expected. More significantly, the central bank gave clues to future policy moves. The headline from the press release was that the Riksbank expects “the policy rate can be cut in May or June if inflation prospects remain favourable”. Our own forecast remains for a first cut at the June meeting. The bank’s macro forecasts were revised on Wednesday, with its outlook for GDP brightening. Wed, 27 Mar 2024 03:30:00 ESTAustralia: Consumer Price Indexhttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/5A06A2C8-04EB-435C-A465-8046025E853FAustralian headline inflation held steady at 3.4% y/y in February, equalling the December and January prints. The result bettered the market expectations for a modest rise. Stripping out volatile items, underlying inflation eased to 3.9% from 4.1% in January. The latest print reinforces our expectation that rate cuts will start in September. Tue, 26 Mar 2024 20:30:00 ESTArgentina: Economic Activity Indicatorhttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/0577A477-F8E7-4B08-898F-E8E5F9B1065BThe statistics office’s monthly economic activity index, IMAE, fell 4.3% year on year in January after declining 4.5% in the previous month. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the economic activity index declined 1.2% month on month. The key agriculture sector continued to recover in January after contracting sharply for most of 2023 due to severe drought conditions. Yet, January’s report still depicts an economy in recession amid triple-digit inflation and the implementation of an aggressive stabilization plan by the new government. Economic conditions will deteriorate in upcoming months before turning a corner in the second half of the year. Thus, we see real GDP contracting 2.9% in 2024 after falling 1.6% in 2023. Tue, 26 Mar 2024 15:00:00 ESTUnited States: Texas Service Sector Outlook Surveyhttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/BC690249-E17F-4741-8F7A-0ED3172A432ATexas service sector activity expanded in March in terms of revenues, though the index value of 4.0 is slightly weaker than February’s reading. The employment index turned slightly negative to -1.2 while the hours worked index held steady at 0.7. With both measures near zero, it’s clear that the labor market was little changed in March. Retail remained weak, with revenue mostly falling during the last two years. Indicators of conditions six months from now remain moderately positive, consistent with the historical pattern.Tue, 26 Mar 2024 10:30:00 ESTUnited States: Conference Board Consumer Confidencehttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/EF51D8BA-A764-4CA7-ABE1-2B32D236A765U.S. consumer confidence was unmoved in March, according to the Conference Board, in line with our prerevision expectation. The headline index inched back from a downwardly revised 104.8 (previously 106.7) in February to 104.7. A slight increase in the present situation index was offset by a similar-sized decline in the expectations index, which remains below 80, the threshold typically associated with recession. Confidence rose among consumers age 55 and older but weakened for those younger than age 55. Over the prior six months, consumer confidence has essentially flatlined. Tue, 26 Mar 2024 10:00:00 ESTUnited States: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Surveyhttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/62E5640E-E8D3-4EAC-BB92-57FDE5E10CDCAccording to the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey, manufacturing contracted in March. After improving in February, the headline diffusion index ticked down again to -11 in March from -5 in February. Of the component indexes, only the shipments index increased, inching up from -15 to -14 but still solidly in contractionary territory. The new orders index slumped from -5 to -17 while the employment index fell from 7 to 0. Tue, 26 Mar 2024 10:00:00 ESTUnited States: FHFA Purchase-Only House Price Indexhttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/38B67DC6-D46A-4656-8B22-3C5E63C4BF89The Federal Housing Finance Agency Purchase-Only House Price Index was up 6.3% on a year-ago basis in January. However, house price growth declined 0.1% on a monthly basis. The shortage of homes for sale continues to put upward pressure on house prices, while poor affordability and high mortgage rates weigh on housing demand. All census divisions posted gains on an annual basis but were mixed on a monthly basis. Tue, 26 Mar 2024 09:00:00 ESTUnited States: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller® Home Price Indexeshttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/C8DCF5E8-B141-4093-8C66-21B91361E050U.S. house prices are rising as a tight supply of existing homes for sale offset the weight of extremely low affordability, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index. The 20-city composite index was up 6.6% from a year ago in January, while the national index increased 0.4% over the month on a seasonally adjusted basis. Not seasonally adjusted data show that national house prices were down a modest 0.1%, which is typical as housing activity cools during the winter months. All 20 cities tracked by the report logged annual price gains, with San Diego and Los Angeles leading the pack.Tue, 26 Mar 2024 09:00:00 ESTUnited States: Durable Goods (Advance)https://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/93FB6B5A-499C-4F2B-B254-2098D49F3893U.S. durable goods orders rose 1.4% in February, better than we expected. Transportation accounted for the bulk of new orders, rising 3.3%. Excluding transportation, orders rose a less impressive 0.5% following a 0.3% decline in January. The key capital goods category rose 0.7% while shipments fell 0.4%. Total inventories rose 0.3% in February, while total unfilled orders remain unchanged.Tue, 26 Mar 2024 08:30:00 ESTUnited States: Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Surveyhttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/1A9FE3C9-07A9-49A1-9CBB-8FBAAD8C6169The Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey from the Philly Fed showed a decline in service-sector activity in March. The headline diffusion index fell to -2.3 from 0.8 in February. The new orders index improved slightly but remained negative, increasing from -4.7 to -3.9. The sales/revenues index slid from 7.7 to 0.2. The full-time employment index also headed lower, falling from 9.1 in February to 3.5 in March. The prices paid index fell again, coming in at 26.6 in March, which is around its long-run average.Tue, 26 Mar 2024 08:30:00 ESTSpain: GDPhttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/DF0F8C7E-3C1C-471A-9B0B-60DEB869B107In seasonally adjusted terms, Spain's GDP grew 0.6% quarter over quarter in the three months to December, with no major changes from its preliminary estimate. Furthermore, there were no major revisions to previous quarters. Domestic demand, particularly in durable and public consumption, drove the print in the last quarter of 2023. In yearly terms, the economy grew 2% in the fourth quarter—0.1 percentage point above the previous stanza. Overall, the Spanish economy grew 2.5% in 2023, 3.3 percentage points below the previous year. The sectoral composition of Spain will help the economy to escape a quarterly contraction in the near term despite a regional deceleration.Tue, 26 Mar 2024 06:30:00 ESTHong Kong SAR (China): Foreign Tradehttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/959446C4-A938-40A9-80C5-EE65681EAB9EHong Kong’s merchandise trade deficit for February came in at HKD41.7 billion after January's surprise surplus of HKD3.6 billion. Exports declined 0.8% in year-on-year terms and imports fell 1.8%. Trade over the first two months of 2024 have been volatile due to the shift in the timing of Lunar New Year holiday season. The trade picture for the opening two months of the year look more stabilised with February’s readings. We remain optimistic that trade growth will accelerate as interest rates begin to fall across key markets in the U.S. and Europe in the second half of 2024.Tue, 26 Mar 2024 04:30:00 ESTSingapore: Industrial Productionhttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/74A13940-90D3-4176-9087-56F0F46CD560Singaporean industrial production was surprisingly strong in February, climbing 3.8% year on year and a remarkable 14.2% in seasonally adjusted terms from January. These results far exceeded our and market expectations. The volatile biomedical sector was the main source of the increase, followed by transport engineering. Excluding biomedical manufacturing, output increased 1.4% y/y. The key electronics sector grew a moderate 2.6% y/y. Industrial production readings will likely be rocky in the coming months amid a gradual rebound in the tech cycle and uneven global growth.Tue, 26 Mar 2024 01:00:00 ESTSouth Korea: Consumer Sentiment Indexhttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/7B6F75FC-D2B6-4BCF-88F4-A824DFDD0D7CSouth Korea's consumer sentiment index slipped to 100.7 in March from 101.9 in February. We expected an increase. All major components fell, with current domestic economic conditions declining the most. Despite the retreat, this is the index’s third straight reading above the neutral threshold of 100. High interest rates continue to subdue domestic demand. We expect consumer spending will improve once the Bank of Korea cuts interest rates, although that is likely to be a few months away.Mon, 25 Mar 2024 17:00:00 ESTUnited States: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Surveyhttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/2609CC50-9567-4E0D-A0C1-413889F6B2A6After rebounding in February, Texas factory activity slid in March, with general business conditions ticking down to -14.4 from -11.3 in the prior month. A number of major indicators, including production, new orders and employment, retreated in March. The near-term outlook remains negative.Mon, 25 Mar 2024 10:30:00 ESTUnited States: New-Home Sales https://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/FF068312-7AD6-4D4A-AB15-7CDC94BCD3F3New residential sales moved sideways in February. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, 662,000 annualized units were sold during the month, which is largely unchanged from January’s revised rate of 664,000. From a year ago, new residential sales are up nearly 6%. The inventory of new homes for sale climbed to 463,000 units, and the months’ supply of inventory at the current pace of sales was 8.4. The median sales price for a new home was $400,500, which is more than 7% below the median price of a new home sold in February 2023.Mon, 25 Mar 2024 10:00:00 ESTWorld: Moody's Analytics Survey of Business Confidencehttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/703FEB4C-D075-4BD8-BA79-D6009E2CBE16Global business sentiment is stable and consistent with a global economy that is growing just below its potential. More than one-fourth of responses to the nine questions posed in the global business survey are positive, one-fifth are negative, and the remaining responses are neutral. Businesses are meaningfully more upbeat in their responses to the broad questions concerning present business conditions and prospects for business through this summer. They say their biggest problems are burdensome regulation and the cost and availability of labor. Mon, 25 Mar 2024 10:00:00 ESTUnited States: Chicago Fed National Activity Indexhttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/692563EC-0C23-4DA0-88D1-020E5E41B8F1The Chicago Fed National Activity Index points to a pickup in U.S. economic growth in February. The index increased to 0.05 in February from -0.54 in January. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index improved, and three categories were in positive territory. Production-related indicators contributed the most to the increase, coming in at 0.02. The index's three-month moving average decreased to -0.18 in February from 0.11 in January.Mon, 25 Mar 2024 08:30:00 ESTTaiwan (China): Industrial Productionhttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/F273FA3C-1B5B-481E-A220-3E7AA143E5E1Taiwan's industrial production fell 1.1% in February from a year ago, while manufacturing output decreased 1.2% over the same period. However, because of Lunar New Year holiday disruptions impacting production speeds, figures for February displayed some volatility. Overall, the January and February data prints combined rose 7.5% y/y compared with the same period from a year ago. This shows that semiconductor industry is steadily recovering, which is good news for the Taiwanese economy. Mon, 25 Mar 2024 04:00:00 ESTSingapore: Consumer Price Indexhttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/956D7195-7895-4C63-9003-BB2ED3879CCDInflation in Singapore rose more than expected in February. Headline inflation rose to 3.4% year on year from 2.9% in January. We expected a 3.2% print, while the consensus forecast was 3.3%. Price increases across the accommodation, services and food categories were larger than in January. Inflation cooled in three key segments: electricity and gas, retail and private transport. Core inflation, which excludes accommodation and private transport, rose to 3.6% from 3.1% in January.Mon, 25 Mar 2024 01:00:00 ESTNetherlands: GDPhttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/A61E5889-538F-4696-8000-4E39BBA6CA9DThe final estimate for Dutch real GDP growth in the fourth quarter showed an expansion of 0.4% quarter over quarter—a marginally bigger expansion than the preliminary 0.3% q/q posted in February. Household consumption was the largest factor driving the increase, while fixed investments made a significant negative contribution. The trade balance was slightly lower as imports rose and exports declined. Government consumption and fixed investment was revised upwards, while trade balance was revised downwards. We expect the Dutch economy to continue to grow this year, with stronger momentum in the second half of this year.Mon, 25 Mar 2024 00:30:00 ESTMalaysia: Consumer Price Indexhttps://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/C1B934AA-8523-443F-96BD-49AF748D8619Inflation heated up in Malaysia in February. The headline CPI rose 1.8% y/y after holding at 1.5% for three straight months. The acceleration was driven by housing, water and utilities, sports and recreation services, as well as transport. Utility prices ticked up due to an adjustment in water tariffs across Peninsular Malaysia. Core inflation, which excludes fresh food and other goods subsidised by the government, held at 1.8%. Headline inflation remains relatively moderate, but changes to the implementation of fuel subsidies in the second half of the year could temporarily lift consumer prices.Mon, 25 Mar 2024 00:00:00 EST