Forecast: U.S. Case-Shiller® Home Price Indexes

Moody's Analytics and CoreLogic^® have partnered to create the most trustworthy and authoritative U.S. house price forecasts available. Case-Shiller^® Indexes are market-specific and accurately track historical residential house prices over time. They measure the total market, not just prices of homes purchased through conforming loans.

Case-Shiller^® Home Price Index Forecasts are updated monthly and are available under standard alternative scenarios, regulatory scenarios and a constant severity scenario independent of current business cycle conditions. These scenarios enable clients to simulate the path of house prices under a range of economic conditions, as well as for stress-testing and "what if" analysis. Understanding the future path of house prices in relation to economic stresses such as oil price shocks, financial market distress, dollar devaluation and other economic scenarios is critical to successful strategic planning and risk management.

Authoritative Data

The CoreLogic Case-Shiller^® indexes employ the repeat-sales methodology first developed by Karl Case and Robert Shiller—today’s industry standard—and also leverage robust CoreLogic real estate data—also the industry standard. This combination of industry-leading CoreLogic transaction data and trusted CoreLogic Case-Shiller^® modeling produces uniquely stable and dependable results. Case-Shiller^® Indexes are unique because they

• are a total market measure not based solely on conventional and conforming loans;
• are a value-weighted repeat-sales index;
• include market transactions (no appraisal bias);
• filter out non-arms length sales;
• down-weight pairs with long intervals between sales and reduce the influence of extreme price changes.

The CoreLogic Case-Shiller^® Home Price Indexes include Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) indexes for missing markets and time periods—ensuring the most complete coverage possible of all U.S. Census divisions, states, metropolitan areas, and micropolitan divisions.

Coverage

• Three price tiers and condominium data for states and metropolitan areas.
• Single-family aggregate index for:
  • The United States
  • All census regions and divisions
  • All U.S. states
  • All U.S. metropolitan areas and divisions
  • More than 400 U.S. counties
  • More than 6,000 U.S. zip codes
• In addition to the forecast dataset, clients can access the comprehensive historical database.

Applications

• Identify market opportunities: home equity and credit card marketing programs.
• Risk management for mortgage securities investors:
  • Updating mortgage pool collateral values
  • Default and prepayment modeling
• Managing mortgage servicing portfolios: customer retention and marketing.
• Measuring risk exposure to residential real estate: Identifying markets with most risk/opportunity.

Key Features

• The model identifies long-term influences on house prices, such as income trends and demographics, and cyclical factors such as unemployment and changes in mortgage rates.
• Analysis and forecasts are based on a fully specified supply-and-demand model.
• Moody's Analytics forecasts the Case-Shiller^® Indexes under standard alternative scenarios, regulatory scenarios and a constant severity scenario independent of current business cycle conditions.

Updates

• Historical index update released monthly.
• Forecasts and alternative scenarios updated monthly.