Fall 2008 Conference
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Penn State, Great Valley
Safeguard Scientifics Building

The first afternoon of the Outlook Conference will focus on issues of credit risk and will discuss Moody’s Economy.com’s work in modeling, forecasting and stress testing household credit.

Consumer Credit Over the Business Cycle

12:30 p.m. - 1:00 p.m.
Registration

1:00 p.m. - 2:00 p.m.
Aggregate Versus Loan Level Approaches to Loss Forecasting
Sanchez Suite (Room 105)
Tony Hughes, Senior Director, Credit Analytics
While many problems require individual loan characteristics for a feasible solution, other problems such as portfolio level forecasting and stress testing can be solved in a number of different ways. In this session, we lay out a compelling case in favor of aggregate approaches when forecasting aggregates is the ultimate goal.

2:00 p.m. - 3:00 p.m.
A Macro View of Credit Scores
Sanchez Suite (Room 105)
Daniel Melser, Senior Economist, Credit Analytics
Credit scores, in aggregate, tend to be a lagging, procyclical indicator of activity. As economic fortunes improve, the representative consumer’s credit score rises, making him seem like a better credit risk. In reality we know that this is not the case. This session will explore the cyclical nature of credit scores and advocate in favor of scores that are not distorted by vagaries in the prevailing business cycle.

3:00 p.m. - 3:30 p.m.
Coffee Break

3:30 p.m. - 4:30 p.m.
Scenario-Based Forecasting With Software
Sanchez Suite (Room 105)
Tony Hughes, Senior Director, Credit Analytics and Juan Licari, Senior Economist, Credit Analytics
Moody’s Economy.com has developed a new software platform for forecasting credit portfolio losses using economic data. Analyzing information at the vintage level, the software takes advantage of dynamic behavior to predict the future performance of existing loans as well as market conditions that will pertain to loans originated in future periods. The approach can be applied at the regional level, fully utilizing Moody’s Economy.com’s data and forecasting capabilities.

Thursday, November 6, 2008
Penn State, Great Valley
Safeguard Scientifics Building

The second day of the Outlook Conference will assess the outlook for the U.S. and global economies and the various key risks to that outlook.

8:00 a.m. - 8:30 a.m.
Registration, Reception, and Continental Breakfast

8:30 a.m. - 8:45 a.m.
Welcome
Paul Getman, President/Executive Director

8:45 a.m. - 10:00 a.m.
Economic Outlook
Musser Auditorium
Mark M. Zandi, Chief Economist
The global and U.S. economies are struggling under the weight of the crumbling housing market, turmoil in the financial system, and record energy and food prices. Policy makers are grappling to respond, and election results will have significant implications for economic policy. This session considers the prospects for the global and U.S. economies into the next decade.

10:00 a.m. - 10:15 a.m.
Coffee Break

10:15 a.m. - 11:15 a.m.
Outlook for Commercial Real Estate
Musser Auditorium
Craig Thomas, Head of Research, Citi Property Investors
Commercial real estate has been an important source of growth for the U.S. economy in recent years. This seems set to change given the fallout of the financial shock.

Concurrent Sessions

11:15 a.m. - 12:15 p.m.
Session I: Global Roundtable—Policymakers' Dilemma
Musser Auditorium
Moderated by Ruth Stroppiana, Chief International Economist, and Daniel Melser, Senior Economist
The global economy is being battered by the ongoing financial crisis and opposing forces of slower growth and high inflation. This session will consider how these pressures have hit different parts of the global economy and how policymakers and central bankers are currently balancing the risks.

11:15 a.m. - 12:15 p.m.
Session II: Which Way Is Financial Regulation Headed?
Sanchez Suite (Room 105)
Edward Friedman, Senior Economist
The current financial crisis has been felt in all corners of the global financial system. Policymakers have quickly engaged in crisis management, but they must soon turn their attention to building a more effective regulatory structure. This session chronicles what that new structure may look like.

12:15 p.m. - 1:15 p.m.
Buffet Lunch
Lunch will be available in the Main Lobby.

1:15 p.m. - 2:15 p.m.
Session III: Financial Meltdown and Global Capital Flows
Musser Auditorium
Le Anh Tu Packard, Senior Economist, and Virendra Singh, Senior Economist
What are the global financial ramifications of the massive U.S. bailout? How will the global economy absorb an extra $700 billion in U.S. Treasury debt? What will be crowded out? What impact will this have on key asset prices and on inflation? This session focuses on the rescue and probable combination of alternatives for financing the rescue. What scenarios are more likely to play out? What are the cost benefits? What will be the impact on global interest rates and exchange rates of the alternative scenarios?

1:15 p.m. - 2:15 p.m.
Session IV: Consumer Recovery?
Sanchez Suite (Room 105)
Scott Hoyt, Senior Director, Consumer Economics
U.S. consumers face substantial headwinds, from falling employment and house prices to record-high gasoline and food prices. Consumers have rarely been so glum. Just when will a consumer recovery begin and how strong will it be?

2:15 p.m. - 3:15 p.m.
Session V: Presidential Economics
Musser Auditorium
Gus Faucher, Director, Macroeconomics
Whoever becomes president, he will face a number of daunting challenges. Do we need another round of economic stimulus and should there be a more aggressive response to the housing crisis? Even more important will be how to address the nation’s energy, healthcare and fiscal crisis. How will the next president respond?

2:15 p.m. - 3:15 p.m.
Session VI: Global Cities: Data and Methodology
Sanchez Suite (Room 105)
Steven G. Cochrane, Managing Director
This session will introduce Moody’s Economy.com’s newest forecast product covering prospects for the global economy’s most important cities. Definitions used to define metropolitan areas around the globe, data sources, and forecast methodology will be presented. The outlook for global cites will also be considered.

3:15 p.m. - 3:30 p.m.
Coffee Break

3:30 p.m. - 4:30 p.m.
Global Cities: Winners and Losers
Musser Auditorium
Saskia Sassen, the Helen and Robert Lynd Professor of Sociology at Columbia University
Professor Sassen has written extensively on the formation of global cities. She will discuss the forces driving the success of these urban areas and their prospects.

All Day (Thursday and Friday) - Main Lobby
Product Demonstrations
Moody’s Economy.com staff will be available to demonstrate our Macroeconomic Model; the World Workstation, a web-based tool for assessing the historical and future performance of a large number of global economies; and the Industry Workstation, a web-based tool for assessing U.S. industries.

5:00 p.m. - 6:30 p.m.
Reception at General Warren Inne
All conference attendees are invited for wine, beer and hors d’oeuvres.

6:30 p.m.
Dinner at General Warren Inne
Requires advance registration–attendance is limited.

Friday, November 7, 2008
Penn State, Great Valley
Safeguard Scientifics Building

The third day of the Outlook Conference will be devoted to the U.S. industry and regional economic outlook.

8:00 a.m. - 8:40 a.m.
Registration, Reception, and Continental Breakfast

8:40 a.m. - 9:40 a.m.
Industry Roundtable
Musser Auditorium
Moderated by Mike Helmar, Director, Industry Economics
Industry performance varies widely depending on cost structure, export exposure, technological change and global competition. The industry roundtable will focus on the performance of the nation’s industries and will also consider their implications for the regional economies. The housing and auto industries will be specifically discussed, highlighting the impacts of one industry that is widely distributed geographically and one that is geographically concentrated.

9:40 a.m. - 10:00 a.m.
Coffee Break

10:00 a.m. - 12:00 noon
Regional Roundtable
Musser Auditorium
Moderated by Steven G. Cochrane, Managing Director
Recession first struck in California, Florida, and parts of the industrial Midwest. More recently, the economy’s problems have spread more broadly to the Southeast and Northeast. Texas and the Farm Belt continue to hold firm. This roundtable will consider the path of the current downturn and future recovery across the nation’s regional economies.

12:00 noon
Adjourn

Speakers

Steven Cochrane Steven G. Cochrane is managing director of Moody’s Analytics, where he directs the research and development activities of the research staff. Steve’s research specialty is regional economics and he manages the U.S. regional forecasting service. Steve also edits the Regional Financial Review, the firm’s monthly publication that analyzes U.S. macro, regional, industry and international trends. Steve has been an analyst with Moody’s Analytics since 1993. He earned a PhD in regional science at the University of Pennsylvania and is a Penn Institute for Urban Research Scholar. Steve earned a master's degree at the University of Colorado at Denver, and a bachelor's degree at the University of California at Davis.

Augustine Faucher Augustine Faucher is director of macroeconomics for Moody’s Analytics. Gus edits the firm’s flagship Précis Macro publication, covering the U.S. economy, and helps run the Moody’s Analytics computer model of the U.S. economy. He covers U.S. fiscal, regulatory and monetary policy, and contributes to the U.S./Canada edition of the Dismal Scientist web site. He also covers the Massachusetts and Utah economies. Gus gives regular talks on the U.S. economic outlook. He is a frequent guest on CNBC, Fox Business Network, and CN8 Money Matters Today, and is often quoted by international, U.S. and regional news outlets. He has also appeared on the CBS Evening News and public radio's All Things Considered and Marketplace. Gus was a senior economist for six years at the U.S. Treasury Department and taught at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. He earned a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Pennsylvania, with concentrations in labor economics and public economics. He received an A.B. in economics from Cornell University.

Edward Friedman Edward Friedman is a director at Moody’s Analytics. Dr. Friedman prepares alternative macroeconomic forecasts for the Moody’s Analytics baseline utilizing the 1,500-equation macroeconomic model, edits monthly regional and macroeconomic publications, produces forecasts for Texas and its major metropolitan areas, writes monthly summaries of the U.S. financial industry, and supervises a project to expand metropolitan area forecasting to foreign cities. He previously worked for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, supervising the collection of data on cross-border transactions in securities. Dr. Friedman received a PhD in international economics from Yale University. His bachelor's degree in mathematics is from Dartmouth College.

Michael Helmar Mike Helmar is Director of Industry Economics at Moody’s Economy.com and is responsible for industry and state analysis. He also edits an edition of Précis Metro. Prior to joining Moody's Economy.com, Mr. Helmar was Director of Research at the Delaware Economic Development Office. He was also at Iowa State University, where he was involved in agricultural policy research. Mr. Helmar received his master's degree in Agricultural Economics from the University of Nevada, Reno.

Scott Hoyt Scott Hoyt is senior director of consumer economics for Moody's Analytics. He is responsible for the firm’s consumer forecasts and analysis, assists in the production of its U.S. economic forecast, and is a regular contributor to the Economy.com web site and a regular speaker at our client conferences. He is a lead analyst for CreditForecast.com Before joining Moody’s Analytics, Dr. Hoyt spent five years as an economist for J.C. Penney, where he did extensive work in the company's credit department. He received his PhD and MA in economics from the University of Pennsylvania and his BA summa cum laude from Bates College.

Anthony Hughes Tony Hughes is a managing director in the Economic & Consumer Credit group at Moody’s Analytics. He is the head of a small group of high-caliber modelers, charged with identifying new business opportunities for the company. Prior to this appointment, he led the Consumer Credit Analytics team for eight years from its inception in 2007. His first role after joining the company in 2003 was as lead economist and head of the Sydney office of the company Moody’s Economy.com. Dr. Hughes helped develop a number of Moody’s Analytics products. He proposed the methodology behind CreditCycle and CreditForecast 4.0, developed the pilot version of the Stressed EDF module for CreditEdge, and initiated the construction of the Default, Prepayment and Loss Curves product, which provides forecasts and stress scenarios of collateral performance for asset-backed securities and residential mortgage-backed securities deals worldwide. More recently, he championed the development of the Pre-Provision Net Revenue Factors Library, a tool that provides industry-level projections of key bank balance sheet line items. In the credit field, Dr. Hughes’ research has covered all forms of retail lending, large corporate loans, commercial real estate, peer-to-peer, structured finance, and the full range of PPNR elements. He has conducted innovative research in deposit modeling and in the construction of macroeconomic scenarios for use in stress-testing. Dr. Hughes has managed a wide variety of large projects for major banks and other lending institutions. In addition, he has published widely in industry publications such as American Banker, Nikkei, GARP, and the Journal of Structured Finance as well as four papers in peer-reviewed academic journals. He obtained his PhD in econometrics from Monash University in Australia in 1997.

Juan M. Licari Juan Licari is a senior director at Moody's Analytics. Dr. Licari is a member of the Credit Analytics group and specializes in financial economics. Dr. Licari leads consulting projects with major industry players, builds econometric tools to model credit phenomena, and has implemented several stress-testing platforms to quantify portfolio risk exposure. He has a leading role in the development and implementation of credit solutions and is actively involved in communicating these to the market. Dr. Licari holds a PhD and an MA in economics from the University of Pennsylvania and graduated summa cum laude from the National University of Cordoba in Argentina.

Daniel Melser Daniel Melser is a Senior Economist at the Moody's Analytics office in Sydney. Daniel received a PhD in Economics from the University of New South Wales, Australia. Daniel has worked as a lecturer of economics as well as in the production, compilation and development of official statistics. His primary research interests are in the areas of inflation measurement, economic growth, the Chinese economy, house prices, and empirical macroeconomics.

Tu Packard Tu Packard is an senior economist at Moody's Analytics specializing in developing and transition economies. A graduate of Bryn Mawr College and Columbia University, she has published papers on the international business cycle, prototype models for developing and transition economies, the effects of external liberalization on economic performance and social policy implications, banking system crises, and early warning indicators. She has more than 20 years of experience in international economic consulting for clients that include the United Nations, the World Bank, the Ford Foundation, business enterprises, and academic institutions. She has worked in numerous capacity-building projects on monetary, macroeconomic and structural reform policies, state enterprise reform, poverty reduction strategies, governance and gender issues, and the public investment program.

Saskia Sassen, Columbia University Saskia Sassen is the Lynd Professor of Sociology and Member, The Committee on Global Thought, at Columbia University. Her recent books are Territory, Authority, Rights: From Medieval to Global Assemblages ( Princeton University Press 2006), and A Sociology of Globalization (Norton 2007). She wrote a lead essay in the 2006 Venice Biennale of Architecture Catalogue.

Virendra Singh Dr. Virendra Singh is a Senior Economist with Moody's Analytics. Prior to Moody's Analytics, he worked at the World Bank for three years, the U.S. Department of Treasury for two years, and Global Insight for 14 years. He specializes in international economics and econometrics and his recent work has focused on trade and currency issues. Dr. Singh covers China and Hong Kong and is responsible for Moody's Analytics's global macroeconomic forecast.

Ruth Stroppiana Ruth Stroppiana is chief international economist at Moody's Analytics. Based in Sydney, Dr. Stroppiana is responsible for global macroeconomic research on the Economy.com web site. Dr. Stroppiana also oversees the global forecasting service, including non-U.S. alternative scenarios. Dr. Stroppiana writes on a variety of issues for the Economy.com web site and the Regional Financial Review. She formerly directed EMEA economics in the Moody's Analytics London office and has extensive experience in analyzing countries in the Asia-Pacific region and Europe and in international economic consulting. She speaks regularly at Moody’s Analytics client conferences and has been quoted in a variety of regional and global publications and interviewed by major news media outlets. Dr. Stroppiana received her PhD in economics from the University of Queensland, Australia.

Craig Thomas, Citi Property Investors Craig Thomas leads CPI’s research team, supporting the global acquisition teams and aiding in forming forward-looking strategies for real estate investment. Prior to joining CPI, Mr. Thomas was a senior vice president and director of Research & Research Systems at CB Richard Ellis/Torto Wheaton Research where he oversaw the forecasting process, quality analysis and overall production of services and products to TWR’s client base. He also set the overall economic outlook, as well as created economic scenarios capturing potential risks to real estate markets. Prior to joining TWR, Mr. Thomas was a senior economist and director of Regional Models at Economy.com. Mr. Thomas holds an M.S. in Agricultural and Resource Economics from the University of Maine, as well as a B.S. in both Business Administration and Economics.

Mark Zandi, Chief Economist Mark M. Zandi is chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, where he directs economic research. Moody’s Analytics, a subsidiary of Moody’s Corp., is a leading provider of economic research, data and analytical tools. Dr. Zandi is a cofounder of the company Economy.com, which Moody’s purchased in 2005. Dr. Zandi’s broad research interests encompass macroeconomics, financial markets and public policy. His recent research has focused on mortgage finance reform and the determinants of mortgage foreclosure and personal bankruptcy. He has analyzed the economic impact of various tax and government spending policies and assessed the appropriate monetary policy response to bubbles in asset markets. A trusted adviser to policymakers and an influential source of economic analysis for businesses, journalists and the public, Dr. Zandi frequently testifies before Congress on topics including the economic outlook, the nation’s daunting fiscal challenges, the merits of fiscal stimulus, financial regulatory reform, and foreclosure mitigation. Dr. Zandi conducts regular briefings on the economy for corporate boards, trade associations and policymakers at all levels. He is on the board of directors of MGIC, the nation’s largest private mortgage insurance company, and The Reinvestment Fund, a large CDFI that makes investments in disadvantaged neighborhoods. He is often quoted in national and global publications and interviewed by major news media outlets, and is a frequent guest on CNBC, NPR, Meet the Press, CNN, and various other national networks and news programs. Dr. Zandi is the author of Paying the Price: Ending the Great Recession and Beginning a New American Century, which provides an assessment of the monetary and fiscal policy response to the Great Recession. His other book, Financial Shock: A 360º Look at the Subprime Mortgage Implosion, and How to Avoid the Next Financial Crisis, is described by the New York Times as the “clearest guide” to the financial crisis. Dr. Zandi earned his BS from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania and his PhD at the University of Pennsylvania. He lives with his wife and three children in the suburbs of Philadelphia.

Hotels

We have reserved a block of rooms for the nights of November 4, 5 and 6 at the following hotels, which are within minutes of the conference facility location.

All four hotels are about 45 minutes from Philadelphia International Airport. You can call the hotels directly and mention Moody’s Economy.com to get the special rate, or call us with your credit card information and we will make your reservation. Please reserve your room as soon as possible.

Homewood Suites is adjacent to Penn State and has spacious suites with separate living and sleeping areas, voice mail messaging system and data ports, indoor pool, exercise center, kitchens, complimentary continental breakfast/light evening meal, and free local phone calls and shuttle service.

Desmond Great Valley is located just across the street from Penn State and is a full service hotel. The rooms have complimentary high speed internet access and room service. The hotel also has an indoor pool, exercise facility, full service restaurant and pub for cocktails and casual dining. To view, go to www.desmondgv.com.

Hampton Inn is about one mile from Penn State, next to the Sheraton Great Valley. It is not a full service hotel (no local shuttle or restaurant), but it does have a voice mail messaging system and data ports, a business center, fitness center, an outdoor pool, outside room service by American Bar & Grill and coffee machines in the rooms. A new addition is a complimentary hot breakfast bar.

Ground Transportation
Train Station to Hotels/Penn State
Various cab services are available at Philadelphia 30th Street Train Station to take you to the hotels or Penn State. Prices vary, but some services such as Great Valley Cab Company (610.240.7942) have service from Penn State to 30th Street Train Station, Philadelphia International Airport and Paoli Train Station. Reservations are needed and they accept major credit cards.

Airport to Hotels
Reservations can be made with Paoli Limousine Service (610.647.5466) to bring you to these hotels from Philadelphia International Airport ($39.70 per person—Cab fares are approximately $100). The service stops at each baggage terminal at 15 minutes after the hour from 8:15 a.m. to 10:15 p.m, Sunday-Friday (every other hour on weekends), however reservations must be made in advance. When you arrive at the airport proceed to baggage claim and call 800.640.7428. Paoli Limousine service will tell you where to wait. Payment can be made by cash, check or credit card.

Hotels to Penn State Great Valley
Homewood Suites guests can walk next door to the conference at Penn State. If you are attending the dinner at the General Warren Inne on November 6 and need return transportation back to the hotel, please notify the hotel and they will make the arrangements.

Desmond Great Valley has a complimentary shuttle service available due to the four lane highway that you need to cross. They will run the service from 7:30 a.m. to 8:30 a.m. Reservations are needed.

Sheraton Great Valley has a complimentary shuttle you can reserve to take you to the conference facility. If needed, reserve the shuttle when you arrive at the hotel.

Hampton Inn guests can call American Cab for transportation to the conference facility. Please call the night before the conference to reserve a cab for the next morning (610.647.1354). Reservations are needed.

Penn State to Airport
You can either reserve Paoli Limousine Service (610.647.5466) or we can reserve a cab for you. Paoli Limosine Service stops at all hotels and Penn State.

Penn State Great Valley Campus
The November 5, 6 and 7 meetings will be held at Penn State’s Great Valley Campus (Safeguard Scientifics Building), 30 East Swedesford Road in Malvern. This is not Penn State’s main campus; it is an extension campus and is very close to the above hotels. The conference facility number is: 610.648.3209. Fax service is available at: 610.725.5317, care of Heather Ely.

General Warren Inne
The historic General Warren Inne is located in the heart of Chester County on West Old Lancaster Highway in Malvern (610.296.3637), very close to the meeting site. The dinner is scheduled for November 6, starting with beer, wine and hors d’oeuvres at 5:00 and then dinner at 6:30. This dinner will sell out so let us know as soon as possible if you wish to attend.

If you need any additional information or help with your trip,
please call Client Services 866.275.3266 or email [email protected].