Overview

The 2015 Economic Outlook Conference, hosted by Moody's Analytics, will discuss challenges, best practices and new approaches for responding to an evolving marketplace with confidence. Join Mark Zandi and top economists from Moody's Analytics as we cover today's most critical business issues, including wage growth, stress-testing, validation, inflation, used-car prices, household credit, the global outlook, oil prices, systemic risk, and pre-provision net revenue modeling.

• What is the medium-term prognosis for wage growth?
• How will the divergence in monetary policy ripple through the global economy?
• What has fueled the recent strong performance in new-car sales?
• What will propel global growth in the coming years?
• How will lower oil prices impact the economy?
• What are the recent trends in household finances?
• What factors are driving the pattern of regional growth?

Dr. Mark Zandi, Chief Economist • Moody's Analytics
Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody's Analytics, where he directs research and consulting. Moody's Analytics, a subsidiary of Moody's Corp., is a leading provider of economic research, data and analytical tools. A trusted adviser to policymakers and an influential source of economic analysis for businesses, journalists and the public, Mark has frequently testified before Congress on topics including the economic outlook, the merits of fiscal stimulus, financial regulatory reform, and foreclosure mitigation. Mark received his PhD at the University of Pennsylvania, where he did his research with Gerard Adams and Nobel laureate Lawrence Klein, and received his BS from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania.

Susan Lund, partner of McKinsey & Company at the McKinsey Global Institute.
Susan Lund is a partner of McKinsey & Company at the McKinsey Global Institute, the firm’s economics research arm. Dr. Lund’s areas of expertise are global financial markets, labor markets, and country productivity and competitiveness.

Her latest research analyzed the growth in global debt since the 2008 financial crisis and prospects for deleveraging. Other research includes trends in globalization in the digital age, the future of financial globalization, prospects for growth of African economies, and the growing skills mismatch and challenge of job creation in the U.S., Europe and emerging markets.

Why Attend?

• Gain economic and industry insights from your peers and experts within the industry.
• Participate in the dialogue on the evolving economic outlook and credit risk management.
• Network with 150+ professionals.
• Explore Moody’s Analytics solutions with our product experts.
• Get an exclusive preview of Moody’s Analytics future solutions.

2015 in the Hyatt at The Bellevue

Dear Client:

I am pleased to invite you to the Moody�s Analytics 2015 Economic Outlook Conference to be held at the Hyatt at The Bellevue in Philadelphia PA.

The conference will begin on the morning of Tuesday, May 5 with a presentation of the outlook for the U.S. economy, to be followed throughout the day by presentations focusing on U.S. and global economic issues and risks, with a particular focus on wage growth, stress-testing, validation, inflation, used-car prices, housing, the global outlook, oil prices, and pre-provision net revenue modeling. On Wednesday, the conference will include presentations on household credit, long-term economic growth, systemic risk, and U.S. subnational forecasts. The final two sessions will feature our Regional Outlook and Roundtable. The roundtable will be an open forum for the audience to discuss with our panel of regional experts the key strengths and risks of the larger metropolitan areas around the country.

We are pleased to have Susan Lund join us as a guest speaker for the conference. Dr. Lund is a partner of McKinsey & Company at the McKinsey Global Institute, the firm�s economics research arm. Dr. Lund�s areas of expertise are global financial markets, labor markets, and country productivity and competitiveness.

Product demonstrations will be ongoing throughout the duration of the conference.

You are also invited to join us at our cocktail hour on the evening of Tuesday, May 5 in the State Drawing Room of the Hyatt at The Bellevue. All are welcome to attend.

I look forward to seeing you at our Economic Outlook Conference!

Sincerely,

Mark M. Zandi
Chief Economist

Tuesday, May 5, 2015

8:00 a.m. – 8:45 a.m.
Registration and Continental Breakfast

8:45 a.m. – 9:00 a.m.
Welcome
Paul Getman

9:00 a.m. – 10:45 a.m.
In a Virtuous Cycle
Mark Zandi
The U.S. economy has finally entered into a virtuous cycle, propelled by falling energy prices and low interest rates. Job gains are strong and the remaining slack in the job market is quickly being worked down. Wage gains should soon accelerate. Household formation also appears to be picking up, which will boost the flagging housing recovery. The soft global economy and surging dollar pose threats, as do the prospects for increased volatility in financial markets as the Federal Reserve normalizes monetary policy. But while there are risks, they feel less severe than they have in years.

10:45 a.m. – 11:00 a.m.
Coffee Break

CONCURRENT SESSIONS
11:00 a.m. – 12:00 noon

Session I – Wage Growth
Sophia Koropeckyj and Kwame Donaldson
The labor market has made great strides. Employment gains are averaging more than 250,000 jobs per month and labor market slack is diminishing. Yet, wage growth has remained steady and subdued. This session will examine possible reasons for the weakness and provide a medium-term prognosis.

Session II – Stress-Testing and Validation for International Countries
Petr Zemcik
Modeling reactions of various economic variables to extreme shocks such as the stress-testing scenarios generated by regulators is a challenge for economists. Generated forecasts undergo a rigorous quality control check, and satellite models provide additional support. With an increasing focus on a proper validation of econometric models, shock properties are therefore additional criteria to standard in-sample statistics and forecasting metrics. We discuss and justify our modeling choices for variables characterizing the real economy.

12:00 noon – 1:00 p.m.
Buffet Lunch

CONCURRENT SESSIONS
1:00 p.m. – 2:00 p.m.

Session III – The Good, the Bad and the Ugly of Global Inflation
Ryan Sweet
Inflation and growth dynamics are noticeably more favorable for the U.S. than elsewhere but are still not ideal. U.S. headline inflation could be declining by midyear, but the Fed will likely discount this because of the transitory effects of falling oil prices. Elsewhere, deflation is a serious threat and central banks have responded. The actions by global central banks this year have strengthened the trend of lower long-term rates and a robust U.S. dollar. How these crosscurrents in financial markets affect U.S. growth is critical, but heavily debated. To quantify the impact of the developments on financial markets, various scenarios were run through both the Moody’s Analytics U.S. model and the Federal Reserve’s macro model. This session will look at the prospects for global inflation/deflation and how the divergence in monetary policy will ripple through the global economy

Session IV – Forecasts and Stress Scenarios of Used-Car Prices
Tony Hughes and Zhou Liu
The market for new cars is growing strongly, indicative of the broad-based health of U.S. consumers. In part, the recent strong performance has been fueled by generous incentives offered by producers and dealerships. Many of these programs have been for leased vehicles. Lessors need forecasts of future vehicle value to set the initial terms. They also need these forecasts, and associated stress scenarios, to monitor the performance of their book and to stress-test cash flows. We will describe some of the work we have done in this important area.

CONCURRENT SESSIONS
2:00 p.m. – 3:00 p.m.

Session V – Housing (Single-Family Rental Housing)
Andres Carbacho-Burgos and Adam Kamins
The broader economic expansion and years of pent-up demand have positioned the housing market to take off. The coming surge in single-family sales and construction was initially led by households who are already homeowners, with the housing market tilting back toward homeownership by the end of the decade. In the meantime, the rental market will heat up, especially in those markets where rents have failed to keep pace with house prices.

Session VI – Value of the Dollar/Global Outlook
Tu Packard and Ruth Stroppiana
The world economy is set for a cyclical upturn after underperforming in 2014 for a third straight year. Global growth will accelerate in the coming years, propelled by a stronger U.S. economy and renewed momentum in emerging markets. Europe will remain the global laggard, hindered by the lackluster euro zone recovery.
The U.S. dollar has surged because of strong U.S. growth and disappointing growth in much of the rest of the world. Since mid-2014, the real broad trade-weighted dollar has appreciated by nearly 10%; it will appreciate further this year, perhaps by around 12.5%. Much of the dollar’s strength will be vis-à-vis the euro and the yen, but its impact on international financial markets and the global economy will be far-reaching and substantial.

3:00 p.m. – 3:15 p.m.
Coffee Break

CONCURRENT SESSIONS
3:15 p.m. – 4:15 p.m.

Session VII – Oil Prices
Juan Pablo Fuentes and Chris Lafakis
This session will deconstruct the reasons for the oil price drop and discuss the economic implications of lower oil prices. We will discuss the effects of lower oil prices on international economies. We will also discuss the outlook for oil prices and the risks to that outlook.

Session VIII – PPNR Modeling and Stress-Testing
Tony Hughes and Juan Licari
Banks now have to stress-test their income and expenses in addition to their credit losses. In order to do this, it is necessary to obtain credible projections of lending volume, new originations, and interest rates payable as well as variables such as headcount, payroll and building expenses. Identifying suitable macroeconomic drivers of these factors is a difficult process. Bank-level data are typically very noisy, and the macro effects are normally conflated with management actions that can obviously play a large role in shaping the performance of the bank. Throughout this session we will analyze innovative modeling methodologies that help us address these challenges. Given the importance of interest rates and spreads for the final pre-provision net revenue calculations, we will devote time to go over alternative methods to model these instruments, ensuring consistency with the stressed macroeconomic scenarios.

4:15 p.m. – 5:15 p.m.
Debt and (Not Much) Deleveraging: New Risks Ahead?
Guest Speaker – Susan Lund
A recent McKinsey Global Institute report shows that seven years after the global financial crisis, total global debt (public and private) has continued to grow, rising by $57 trillion since 2007. Moreover, no major economy has reduced the ratio of total debt relative to GDP. The U.S. debt situation looks relatively positive compared with those of other countries, as there has been substantial debt reduction in the private sector, though a continued rise in government debt. Most other countries have seen debt grow in both the private sector and the public sector. A range of countries have reached new peaks in household debt. In China, total debt has quadrupled since 2007, driven by a soaring, debt-financed real estate market. And in global corporate finance, there has been a dramatic shift in sources of debt from the banking sector to nonbank intermediaries. Does all this point to the risk of another debt crisis? This session will discuss the U.S. and global debt landscape today, the driving forces affecting the public and private sectors, where the risks remain (and are emerging), and how to promote financial stability in an increasingly indebted world.

5:30 p.m. – 6:30 p.m.
Reception – All conference attendees are invited for wine, beer and hors d’oeuvres.

Wednesday, May 6, 2015

8:30 a.m. – 9:00 a.m.
Registration and Continental Breakfast

CONCURRENT SESSIONS
9:00 a.m. – 10:00 a.m.

Session IX – The State of Household Credit: Are the Kids All Right?
Cristian deRitis and Jian Hu
This session will examine recent trends in household finances with a particular emphasis on household credit. We will examine credit growth across consumer credit products using the CreditForecast.com service, a partnership between Moody’s Analytics and Equifax. The second half of the session will focus on recent trends in student loans, including the growth of student loan originations and balances along with performance.

Session X – Forecasting Long-Term Economic Growth
Mark Hopkins
Many investment decisions require projections of economic activity over a long-run horizon, beyond the current business cycle. This session will discuss the Moody’s Analytics approach to long-run economic forecasting, comparing potential growth across a variety of geographies both within the U.S. and around the world. Discussion will conclude with an analysis of shifting patterns of global economic activity and long-run challenges to sustained development.

CONCURRENT SESSIONS
10:00 a.m. – 11:00 a.m.

Session XI – Systemic Risk
Tony Hughes and Sam Malone
Since the financial crisis, academic literature has made significant advances in developing methods for quantifying systemic risk. More recently, regulators such as the Fed have made clear that they expect too-big-to-fail banks to develop quantitative models to measure and track their systemic risk exposures and contributions. Despite these trends, there currently exists no industry-standard commercial solution for systemic risk measurement. In response to this emerging need, we have developed a systemic risk modeling framework that combines the Moody’s Analytics rich, proprietary CreditEdge database with dynamic network models whose effectiveness has been demonstrated in the literature.

Session XII – U.S. Subnational Forecasting: Models and Validation
Marisa Di Natale and Chris Lafakis
From fall 2014 through spring 2015, Moody’s Analytics undertook the first major re-estimation and validation effort for its state and metropolitan area models in 10 years. This session will provide an overview on model structure, the forecasting process, and the results of model back-testing and sensitivity analysis for select Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review related variables.

11:00 a.m. – 11:15 a.m.
Coffee Break

11:15 a.m. – 12:30 p.m.
Regional Outlook
Steven G. Cochrane
Regional advantages are shifting as the mid-continent region is slowed by low oil and commodity prices; the outlook is good, however, for nearly every other region of the country. The West and Southeast are regaining their historical pattern of strong population and job growth; the West has the advantage of more rapid income growth as technology, aerospace, and other high-value industries dominate the pattern of growth. Prospects for the Northeast and the Midwest look better than in a number of years. The Regional Outlook will examine the factors driving the pattern of regional growth and the risks to keep in mind when reviewing the regional trends.

12:30 p.m. – 1:15 p.m.
Buffet Lunch

1:15 p.m. – 3:00 p.m.
Regional Roundtable Discussion
The roundtable will be an open discussion among the panelists and with the audience about factors most relevant to the metropolitan areas of each region. This session will be PowerPoint-free and will allow for a wide-ranging discussion; we will be seeking questions and comments from the audience.

3:00 p.m.
Adjourn

Speakers

Paul Getman, Executive Director Paul Getman is executive director of Moody’s Analytics. Paul oversees the company’s business affairs and strategic planning. With more than 20 years of experience in consulting and research on economic issues, Paul has testified before government agencies and regularly gives speeches on the U.S. outlook for industry and trade groups, nonprofit organizations, and senior corporate management. Paul has an MA in economics and has completed all but the dissertation requirements of a PhD from the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School.

Mark Zandi, Chief Economist Mark M. Zandi is chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, where he directs economic research. Moody’s Analytics, a subsidiary of Moody’s Corp., is a leading provider of economic research, data and analytical tools. Dr. Zandi is a cofounder of the company Economy.com, which Moody’s purchased in 2005. Dr. Zandi’s broad research interests encompass macroeconomics, financial markets and public policy. His recent research has focused on mortgage finance reform and the determinants of mortgage foreclosure and personal bankruptcy. He has analyzed the economic impact of various tax and government spending policies and assessed the appropriate monetary policy response to bubbles in asset markets. A trusted adviser to policymakers and an influential source of economic analysis for businesses, journalists and the public, Dr. Zandi frequently testifies before Congress on topics including the economic outlook, the nation’s daunting fiscal challenges, the merits of fiscal stimulus, financial regulatory reform, and foreclosure mitigation. Dr. Zandi conducts regular briefings on the economy for corporate boards, trade associations and policymakers at all levels. He is on the board of directors of MGIC, the nation’s largest private mortgage insurance company, and The Reinvestment Fund, a large CDFI that makes investments in disadvantaged neighborhoods. He is often quoted in national and global publications and interviewed by major news media outlets, and is a frequent guest on CNBC, NPR, Meet the Press, CNN, and various other national networks and news programs. Dr. Zandi is the author of Paying the Price: Ending the Great Recession and Beginning a New American Century, which provides an assessment of the monetary and fiscal policy response to the Great Recession. His other book, Financial Shock: A 360º Look at the Subprime Mortgage Implosion, and How to Avoid the Next Financial Crisis, is described by the New York Times as the “clearest guide” to the financial crisis. Dr. Zandi earned his BS from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania and his PhD at the University of Pennsylvania. He lives with his wife and three children in the suburbs of Philadelphia.

Andres Carbacho-Burgos Andres Carbacho-Burgos is a senior economist with Moody’s Analytics. He covers housing and state and regional economies, and writes frequently about inflation for Precis Macro from the company's West Chester PA office. Before joining Moody’s Analytics, he taught economics at Texas State University, where he also researched open-economy macroeconomics and income inequality. He obtained his PhD and master's degrees in economics from the University of Massachusetts at Amherst and his bachelor’s degree in economics from Carleton College.

Steven Cochrane Steven G. Cochrane is managing director of Moody’s Analytics, where he directs the research and development activities of the research staff. Steve’s research specialty is regional economics and he manages the U.S. regional forecasting service. Steve also edits the Regional Financial Review, the firm’s monthly publication that analyzes U.S. macro, regional, industry and international trends. Steve has been an analyst with Moody’s Analytics since 1993. He earned a PhD in regional science at the University of Pennsylvania and is a Penn Institute for Urban Research Scholar. Steve earned a master's degree at the University of Colorado at Denver, and a bachelor's degree at the University of California at Davis.

Cristian deRitis Cristian deRitis is a director at Moody's Analytics. He performs consumer credit modeling and analysis with the Credit Analytics group and contributes to the analysis for CreditForecast.com. Before joining the Moody's Analytics West Chester PA operation, Cris worked for Fannie Mae and taught at Johns Hopkins University in Washington DC. He received a PhD and MA in economics from Johns Hopkins University and graduated summa cum laude from Michigan State University with a bachelor's degree in economics.

Marisa Di Natale Marisa Di Natale is a director at Moody’s Analytics. Ms. Di Natale is responsible for state and metro area forecast models, analysis of the U.S. labor market, and Précis Metro editing. Her areas of specialization include the New York economy and the banking and securities brokerage industries. Previously, she was an economist at the Bureau of Labor Statistics in Washington DC, where she analyzed monthly employment statistics. Ms. Di Natale received an MA in applied economics from Johns Hopkins University and a BA in international relations from Boston University.

Kwame Donaldson Kwame Donaldson is an economist with Moody's Analytics. He works closely with the regional house price forecasting models and monitors the economy in Florida and its metropolitan areas. Before joining Moody's Analytics, he worked for the American Housing Survey at the U.S. Census Bureau, and he has extensive experience with systems research and design and database development. He holds a PhD in economics from Georgia State University, an MBA from the Georgia Institute of Technology, and a bachelor’s degree in economics and English from Rice University.

Juan Pablo Fuentes Juan Pablo Fuentes is an economist at Moody’s Analytics. Mr. Fuentes completed his master’s degree in international economics from Suffolk University and received his bachelor of economics degree at the Andres Bello Catholic University in Caracas, Venezuela.  He has extensive experience as an economist doing research, economic analysis, and forecasting for the Latin American economies.

Mark Hopkins Mark Hopkins is a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics. His responsibilities include macroeconomic research, international forecasting, and U.S. federal fiscal policy. Dr. Hopkins contributes to the Moody’s Analytics U.S. macroeconomic model and is responsible for forecasting Canada’s economy. Previously, Mark taught macroeconomics at Gettysburg College and served as international economist on the staff of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers. He has published articles and chapters related to international economics, economic growth and foreign policy. He received his PhD in economics from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, an MSc from the London School of Economics, and a BA from Wesleyan University.

Jian Hu Jian Hu is a director in the Credit Analytics group at Moody’s Analytics, where he manages a team of economists in developing credit risk and stress-testing models for financial institutions. He has published research in the areas of structured finance and financial markets and has given presentations at various academic conferences. Before joining Moody’s Analytics, Jian worked for Fannie Mae as an economist. He also worked at the headquarters of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China in Beijing prior to his graduate studies. Jian holds a PhD in economics from Southern Methodist University, an MS from Stockholm School of Economics, and a BS from Nankai University, China. He is a CFA charterholder and certified Financial Risk Manager.

Anthony Hughes Tony Hughes is a managing director in the Economic & Consumer Credit group at Moody’s Analytics. He is the head of a small group of high-caliber modelers, charged with identifying new business opportunities for the company. Prior to this appointment, he led the Consumer Credit Analytics team for eight years from its inception in 2007. His first role after joining the company in 2003 was as lead economist and head of the Sydney office of the company Moody’s Economy.com. Dr. Hughes helped develop a number of Moody’s Analytics products. He proposed the methodology behind CreditCycle and CreditForecast 4.0, developed the pilot version of the Stressed EDF module for CreditEdge, and initiated the construction of the Default, Prepayment and Loss Curves product, which provides forecasts and stress scenarios of collateral performance for asset-backed securities and residential mortgage-backed securities deals worldwide. More recently, he championed the development of the Pre-Provision Net Revenue Factors Library, a tool that provides industry-level projections of key bank balance sheet line items. In the credit field, Dr. Hughes’ research has covered all forms of retail lending, large corporate loans, commercial real estate, peer-to-peer, structured finance, and the full range of PPNR elements. He has conducted innovative research in deposit modeling and in the construction of macroeconomic scenarios for use in stress-testing. Dr. Hughes has managed a wide variety of large projects for major banks and other lending institutions. In addition, he has published widely in industry publications such as American Banker, Nikkei, GARP, and the Journal of Structured Finance as well as four papers in peer-reviewed academic journals. He obtained his PhD in econometrics from Monash University in Australia in 1997.

Adam Kamins Adam Kamins is a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics. He manages the firm’s U.S. subnational forecasting service, overseeing the generation of all state and metro area baseline figures while working closely with clients on customized scenarios. In addition, Adam covers a wide variety of topics related to regional economics and serves as the firm’s primary expert on the New York and Northeast economies. Other responsibilities include developing and maintaining a variety of specialized models, including the Moody’s Analytics commercial real estate forecasts and client-specific databases. Adam’s work has been featured by such outlets as CBS, NBC, CNBC, Fox, the Houston Chronicle, and the New York Post, among others. He has also been cited frequently by Crain’s New York Business on a wide variety of issues. Adam regularly presents to a diverse group of audiences on the national and regional economic outlook, as well as specific areas of interest including affordable housing, single-family rental homes, the impact of low oil prices, and regional convergence. Prior to joining Moody’s Analytics, Adam was a research manager at the Initiative for a Competitive Inner City, where he analyzed urban economies across the U.S. He holds a master’s degree in business administration from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and a bachelor’s degree in quantitative economics from Tufts University.

Sophia Koropeckyj Sophia Koropeckyj is a managing director for Moody’s Analytics. Sophia oversees the firm's publications and consulting projects, edits many of the publications, trains new staff members, and gives presentations to clients and trade groups. She covers labor markets, auto-related industries, and the midwestern economy. Based in West Chester PA, Sophia has been with Moody’s Analytics since 1994. Previously, she worked as an economist for the Great Lakes Trade Adjustment Assistance Center and WEFA. Sophia has completed all but the dissertation portion of her doctoral studies in economics at the University of Michigan. She earned a master’s degree in finance at Drexel University and a bachelor’s degree in economics and history at the University of Pennsylvania.

Chris Lafakis Chris Lafakis is a senior economist at Moody's Analytics. His expertise is in model development, model validation, macroeconomics and energy economics. Based in West Chester PA, he also covers the California economy and contributes to the Economy.com web site. Chris has been quoted by media outlets, including CNBC and The Wall Street Journal, and often speaks at economic conferences and events. He received his bachelor's degree in economics from the Georgia Institute of Technology and his master's degree in economics from the University of Alabama.

Juan M. Licari Juan Licari is a senior director at Moody's Analytics. Dr. Licari is a member of the Credit Analytics group and specializes in financial economics. Dr. Licari leads consulting projects with major industry players, builds econometric tools to model credit phenomena, and has implemented several stress-testing platforms to quantify portfolio risk exposure. He has a leading role in the development and implementation of credit solutions and is actively involved in communicating these to the market. Dr. Licari holds a PhD and an MA in economics from the University of Pennsylvania and graduated summa cum laude from the National University of Cordoba in Argentina.

Zhou Liu Zhou Liu is a director on the Moody’s Analytics Credit Analytics team in West Chester PA. She builds customized models for consumer loans based on clients’ proprietary data and conducts stress-testing of portfolio performance. She started her career in the Capital Markets Strategy Department at Fannie Mae analyzing non-agency bonds. She later moved to Fannie’s Multi-Family Division to build credit risk models before joining Moody’s Analytics in 2010. She has a BA from Peking University, an MA from the University of Chicago, and a PhD from the Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University.

Susan Lund, McKinsey & Company Susan Lund is a partner of McKinsey & Company at the McKinsey Global Institute, the firm’s economics research arm. Dr. Lund’s areas of expertise are global financial markets, labor markets, and country productivity and competitiveness. Her latest research analyzed the growth in global debt since the 2008 financial crisis and prospects for deleveraging. Other research includes trends in globalization in the digital age, the future of financial globalization, prospects for growth of African economies, and the growing skills mismatch and challenge of job creation in the U.S., Europe and emerging markets. Dr. Lund has an active schedule discussing research findings with McKinsey clients and other business executives. She is a frequent speaker at conferences on economics and global financial markets and has authored numerous articles in leading business publications, including Harvard Business Review, The Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Foreign Affairs, and The International Economy. She is a member of the National Association of Business Economists and the Conference of Business Economists. Dr. Lund holds a PhD in applied economics from Stanford University and a BA in economics from Northwestern University. She has lived and worked in Africa and Asia and now lives in Washington DC.

Samuel Malone Samuel W. Malone is Director of Economic Research at Moody's Analytics. Dr. Malone has taught and consulted at top institutions in Europe and South America, including Oxford, the University of Navarra, and the Central Banks of Venezuela and Peru. He is coauthor of the book Macrofinancial Risk Analysis, published in the Wiley Finance series with coauthor Dale Gray of the International Monetary Fund, as well as the author of multiple academic journal articles in economics and applied math published in outlets such as the Journal of Applied Econometrics, the International Journal of Forecasting, and the Annual Review of Financial Economics. He holds undergraduate degrees in mathematics and economics from Duke University, where he studied as an A.B. Duke scholar and graduated with summa cum laude Latin honors, and MPhil and doctoral degrees in economics from the University of Oxford, where he studied as a Rhodes Scholar. He retains an appointment as Adjunct Professor of Finance at the University of the Andes School of Management in Bogotá, Colombia.

Tu Packard Tu Packard is an senior economist at Moody's Analytics specializing in developing and transition economies. A graduate of Bryn Mawr College and Columbia University, she has published papers on the international business cycle, prototype models for developing and transition economies, the effects of external liberalization on economic performance and social policy implications, banking system crises, and early warning indicators. She has more than 20 years of experience in international economic consulting for clients that include the United Nations, the World Bank, the Ford Foundation, business enterprises, and academic institutions. She has worked in numerous capacity-building projects on monetary, macroeconomic and structural reform policies, state enterprise reform, poverty reduction strategies, governance and gender issues, and the public investment program.

Ruth Stroppiana Ruth Stroppiana is chief international economist at Moody's Analytics. Based in Sydney, Dr. Stroppiana is responsible for global macroeconomic research on the Economy.com web site. Dr. Stroppiana also oversees the global forecasting service, including non-U.S. alternative scenarios. Dr. Stroppiana writes on a variety of issues for the Economy.com web site and the Regional Financial Review. She formerly directed EMEA economics in the Moody's Analytics London office and has extensive experience in analyzing countries in the Asia-Pacific region and Europe and in international economic consulting. She speaks regularly at Moody’s Analytics client conferences and has been quoted in a variety of regional and global publications and interviewed by major news media outlets. Dr. Stroppiana received her PhD in economics from the University of Queensland, Australia.

Ryan Sweet Ryan Sweet is director of real-time economics at Moody's Analytics. He is also editor-in-chief of the Economy.com web site, to which he regularly contributes, and a member of the U.S. macroeconomics team in West Chester PA. His areas of specialization include U.S. monetary policy and forecasting high-frequency economic indicators. He is also an adjunct professor in the Economics and Finance Department at West Chester University of Pennsylvania. He received his master's degree in economics from the University of Delaware and his bachelor's degree in economics from Washington College.

Petr Zemcik Petr Zemcik is director of economic research at the Moody’s Analytics London office. He is responsible for analysis, modeling and forecasting for Europe. Dr. Zemcik also supervises the real-time coverage of Europe for the Economy.com web site. He previously worked at CERGE-EI, a joint workplace of the Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education of Charles University in Prague and the Economics Institute of the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, and at Southern Illinois University in Carbondale. He has published numerous articles on econometric methodology and on real estate bubbles in the U.S. and in Europe in peer-reviewed professional journals. He holds a PhD and MA in economics from the University of Pittsburgh and MSc in econometrics and operations research from the University of Economics in Prague.

Conference Location

The conference is held at Hyatt at The Bellevue, in Center City, Philadelphia. Attendees who are coming by air will fly in to Philadelphia International Airport.

Hyatt at The Bellevue
200 South Broad Street
Philadelphia PA 19102
Telephone: 215.893.1234
Fax: 215.982.4833

Directions to the Hyatt at The Bellevue:

FROM POINTS NORTH VIA I-95 SOUTH: Follow I-95 South to Central Philadelphia and take Exit 22 to 676 West. Follow 676 West for approximately one mile to the Broad Street exit. This will automatically put you onto 15th Street, heading South. Go 10 lights to Locust Street and turn left. Go one block to Broad Street, turn left and proceed immediately into the center lane. Make a left into the garage for self-parking, or into Chancellor Court for valet parking and unloading luggage and / or passengers.

FROM POINTS NORTH VIA NEW JERSEY TURNPIKE (NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY): Follow the New Jersey Turnpike to Exit 4, Route 73 North. Route 73 North (1.4 miles) will take you to Route 38 West (5.8 miles), which will lead you to Route 30 West. Follow Route 30 West (2.5 miles) to the Benjamin Franklin Bridge. After the bridge, stay to your left and follow the signs for 8th Street, Chinatown. At 8th Street, turn left and proceed for seven blocks to Walnut Street. Make a right onto Walnut Street, go six blocks to Broad Street, and turn left. Proceed immediately into your right-hand lane for the hotel entrance. You may enter into the garage for self-parking, or into Chancellor Court for valet parking and unloading of luggage or passengers.

FROM PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT AND POINTS SOUTH VIA I-95: Follow I-95 North to Exit 17, Broad Street / Route 611. Travel 2.5 miles north on Broad Street, and the hotel will be on your left-hand side, between Locust and Walnut Streets. Enter the center lane to make a left into either the parking facility for self-parking or into Chancellor Court for valet parking and unloading luggage or passengers.

FROM POINTS EAST VIA THE WALT WHITMAN BRIDGE AND ATLANTIC CITY EXPRESSWAY: Follow the Atlantic City Expressway to Route 42 North to the Walt Whitman Bridge. Cross the bridge and take the Broad Street exit. Follow Broad Street approximately 2 miles north to Locust Street. Just as you pass Locust Street proceed immediately into the center lane. From the center lane make a left into the garage entrance for self-parking or into Chancellor Court for valet parking and unloading luggage or passengers.

FROM POINTS WEST VIA THE PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE AND NORTHEAST EXTENSION: Follow the PA Turnpike to Exit 326 (former Exit 24) / Valley Forge Interchange and follow to Route 76 East. From Northeast Extension, follow Route 476 South to Route 76 East. Take Route 76 East to Exit 345 (former Exit 38) / Route 676 East (This exit is from the left lane). Go approximately ½ mile to the Broad Street / Central Philadelphia exit. At the top of the Broad Street exit ramp make an immediate right onto 15th Street. Go nine lights to Locust Street, and turn left onto Locust Street. Go one block to Broad Street. Make a left onto Broad Street. Proceed immediately into the center lane to make a left into garage entrance for self-parking or into Chancellor Court for valet parking and unloading luggage or passengers.

Conference Location

The conference is held at Hyatt at The Bellevue, in Center City, Philadelphia. Attendees who are coming by air will fly in to Philadelphia International Airport.

Hyatt at The Bellevue
200 South Broad Street
Philadelphia PA 19102
Telephone: 215.893.1234
Fax: 215.982.4833

Room Block Information:

We have blocked a set of rooms at the conference hotel, please click below to book your room.

https://resweb.passkey.com/go/moodysanalyticsinc2015