Economic Development Analysis

Analysis, estimation and identification of economic developments and trends for key geographies/sectors.

Moody's Analytics provides analysis, estimation and identification of economic developments and trends for key industries, states and metropolitan areas. We help clients and policy analysts, understand comparative advantage, and underlying strengths and weaknesses with an eye toward minimizing risk and maximizing opportunities. Our economists have extensive experience partnering with states and local municipalities on developing economic models, forecasting revenues, and projecting near- and long-term prospects.

Project Examples


IDENTIFY THE CHANGES IN LAND USE AND URBAN SPRAWL AT THE STATE LEVEL.

This study, produced for a West Coast economic development board, assessed the overall economic vitality of the county in order to understand its recent economic development and identify opportunities for the area's future. The focus of the study was on economic issues, but other measures of quality of life were also included to give a broader meaning to vitality, including education, health, crime and environmental quality.

  • The study approached the county's vitality from both a macro and micro perspective. Using a macro perspective, the recent performance of the county was compared to the rest of the San Francisco Bay Area and the nation as a whole. Macro indicators such as employment, income, and output growth; demographic patterns; international trade; construction activity; retail sales; air quality; crime rates; and school dropout rates were analyzed to assess the overall well-being of the county. Other indicators such as capital investment, infrastructure capacity, business costs, commercial vacancy rates, home prices, and educational attainment were used to assess the county's comparative advantage versus other regions.
  • Using a micro perspective, economic activity in the county was broken down into its industrial components in order to identify key clusters of economic activity for the area's future. Thirteen clusters were selected for study based on their size, on their contribution to regional exports, or because of their rapid growth rates. Three measures employment growth, output growth, and productivity were used to estimate each cluster's contribution to the area's economy. Employment and output growth was stronger for the clusters as a whole, than for the rest of the economy, but not every cluster exhibited greater than average productivity. Each cluster was also analyzed in terms its largest employers, the size distribution of its employers, the outlook for the cluster's primary products in the U.S. and global marketplace, and specific needs of the cluster in terms of labor, capital, and infrastructure.
  • From this analysis, six leading clusters were identified as groups of industries that will likely lead the future competitiveness of the region. Recommendations were then made as to how public policy can be shaped to support them. Furthermore, recommendations were made regarding the improvement of the county's business climate and infrastructure. Areas of common interest between local government, education, and private industry were also identified for future action.

DETERMINE THE OUTLOOK FOR BUSINESS DEMAND FOR VARIOUS TYPES OF TELECOMMUNICATIONS EQUIPMENT BY VERTICAL MARKET AND REGION

Moody's Analytics determined:

  • Apparent consumption of the specified products was constructed from industry reports and export/import data released by the Census Bureau.
  • Consumption of these products was distributed among the vertical markets utilizing the Bureau of Economic Analysis series outlining capital expenditures on all telecommunications equipment by individual companies.
  • A model was constructed to define the relationship between equipment demand and industry output, growth, and capital costs.
  • The estimated model was utilized to allocate national demand among the states and metropolitan areas.

The final report contained:

  • A breakdown of demand into three product types:
    • Telephone switching and switchboard equipment
    • Telephone and telegraph apparatus, carrier line equipment and modems
    • Telephone sets, telephone answering and fax machines
  • An estimation of Public Higher Education Expenditures on Telecommunications Equipment.
  • A fixed-effects panel regression model (across industries) which estimated the relation between past capital expenditures and output level, growth and macroeconomic factors, primarily interest rates.
  • Projections of output by industry at the metro area level for the 315 metro areas and 51 states.

IDENTIFY THE INDUSTRIES THAT ARE CONTRIBUTING TO ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AT THE STATE LEVEL.

Moody's Analytics produced a report that analyzed thirty nine indicators of land use trends. The project involved gathering original data from disparate sources and creating for each indicator a chart illustrating its trend over time and a map that illustrates the regional distribution of the indicator across the state's counties. Each chart and map were accompanied by a brief description of the importance of the indicator to land use in the state and its implications for land use policy.


DEVELOP AN OPTIMAL PRICING MODEL FOR BUSINESS TO CONSUMER DIRECTORIES.

Using the Moody's Analytics business demographics database, all industries at the two- and three-digit SIC code levels for the state were identified as belonging to one of four different industry group. This was done for the state as a whole, and for each of eight regions within the state, in order to provide a geographic distribution to the industry groups. Accompanying this study of industrial structure was a review of the state's comparative advantages versus its neighboring states. Measures include business costs, housing affordability, workforce quality, transportation and communications links, crime rates, migration patterns, and quality of life.