CoreLogic – Moody’s Analytics Australian Forecast Home Value Index



Moody’s Analytics forecasts of the CoreLogic® Hedonic Home Value Index offer unique insights for investors and lenders, enabling them to reduce exposure to risk, identify opportunities, improve portfolio performance and enhance economic return.

The Challenge: Many firms lack consistent models and up-to-date data that fully account for economic trends and important variables that drive market and property values. As a result, they may underestimate or overestimate residential property valuations. Moody’s Analytics solves this problem by producing forecasts based on the market-leading CoreLogic Hedonic Home Value Index, under normal and stressed scenarios.


The Solution: Trusted Forecasts of Residential Properties Based on Market-Leading Source

Relied upon by the industry as the most up to date and accurate measurement of housing market performance,CoreLogic Hedonic Home Value Index uses a market-leading hedonic methodology that calculates values based on statistical modelling of key property characteristics, at different time periods, and then compared. This approach offers a more accurate view of residential property values.

Using CoreLogic’s hedonic indices as a basis, Moody's Analytics applies more than 20 years of econometric modeling expertise to produce 10 year forecasts of residential properties for Australia at the capital cities, rest of state level.

Forecasts are fully informed by national and regional analytics, accounting for interrelationships among all sectors of the economy, including per-capita income, production, spending, financial, and labor markets. The resulting baseline forecast represents the estimate of the most likely path for residential prices through the current business cycle.

In addition to the baseline forecast, The CoreLogic-Moody’s Analytics Australian Forecast Home Value Index allow clients to examine how different types of shocks will affect the future performance, by simulating the path of house prices under a range of economic scenarios. Client can leverage these alternative scenarios for "what if" analysis and stress testing purposes. Understanding the future path of house prices in relation to economic stresses such as oil price shocks, financial market distress, and other economic scenarios, is critical for strategic planning and risk management.

Applications

  • Evaluate prices and compare trends across geographies
  • Identify risks and opportunities in normal and stressed scenarios
  • Manage portfolios for customer retention and marketing
  • Use for strategy, valuation and risk assessment, investment analytics, portfolio management, research and stress-testing

Key Features

  • Identifies long-term price supported by market fundamentals and short-term factors
  • Forecasts, alternative scenarios, and historical data updated monthly
  • Data from an authoritative source

Coverage

  • All houses, single family detached and attached capital cities
  • Attached single family for five provinces, excluding their metro areas:
    • New South Wales
    • Queensland
    • South Australia
    • Victoria
    • Western Australia