|Unit||# 3-mo. EOP, SAAR|
|Adjustments||Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rate|
Bankruptcy filings with the U.S. District Courts, by chapter (personal and business), by number and dollar volume, on three time bases: per month, per quarter, and per 12-month rolling period. Geographic granularity varies by frequency but includes the nation, states, metro areas and counties.
The time series count the number of bankruptcy filings during a given period: A month, a quarter ("three month ending"), or a 12-month rolling period (quarterly). For instance, the 2018Q2 value for "12 month ending" would be the sum of filings during the previous rolling year: the four periods 2017Q3, 2017Q4, 2018Q1, and 2018Q2.
Counting periods vary by geographic level. Monthly data is available for the U.S. and some states; the MSA- and county-level data are 12-month ending. All high frequency series are reported quarterly.
The corresponding Moody's Analytics forecast is structured with two periods: (a) 12-month rolling periods and (b) three-month periods SAAR (seasonally adjusted, annualized rate). The annualized rate makes them comparable to the 12-month data. The majority of Moody's Analytics forecasts are quarterly.
The personal bankruptcy data are compiled by the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts from the reports of the various circuits of the U.S. Bankruptcy Courts. (Bankruptcy petitions must be filed in federal, not state, courts.)
Beginning in 1980, personal bankruptcies have been collected on a household basis; before 1980 they were calculated on a population basis. Thus, a husband and wife filing for bankruptcy before 1980 were counted as two bankruptcy filings; since 1980 they have been counted as one filing.
In its current form, the U.S. bankruptcy code contains five "operative" chapters under which a bankruptcy petition may be filed.
On 20 April 2005, the President signed the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005 (Pub. L. No. 109-08, 119 Stat. 23.) The Act made significant changes to the Bankruptcy Code and affected nearly every aspect of bankruptcy cases. The Act generally took effect on 17 October 2005.
Accordingly, the new law affected data starting with the 2005Q4 period. The blip at that time can be explained by a higher than usual number of filings before the law went into effect.
We create seasonally adjusted series and compute identities at the country, state and census region and division level. Our seasonally adjusted series are created using the U.S. Census Bureau's X-13ARIMA-SEATS program. Such series carry a secondary source citations of either "Moody's Analytics Adjusted" or "Moody's Analytics Calculated."
We also aggregate the as-reported county data to MSAs, metropolitan divisions, micropolitan areas and CSAs; under OMB 17-01, OMB 18-03 and OMB 18-04 delineations. Such series carry a secondary source citation of "Moody's Analytics Calculated."
There are no reported revisions to the single-month data, but revisions are captured in the two cumulations (quarterly and 12-month trailing quaterly). This prevents perfect aditivity between the three versions. This is similar to the case with the Census Bureau measurements of housing permits.