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TitleFAQ: Extent of CSI™ Forecast
AuthorMichael Zoller
Question

How many concepts and geographies are available in the Moody's Economy.com forecast of the Fiserv Case-Shiller® Home Price Index?

Answer

Geographic Coverage: At this time (May 2010), we forecast the single-family aggregate index for the U.S.; for 50 states and Washington, DC; for 395 metro areas (including 29 metro divisions); for 408 selected counties (out of 3,000); and for over 4,500 ZIP code areas (out of 40,000). The single-family tier indices and condo indices have lesser coverage.

Table 1. Number of time series by indicator and geographic level.  County- and ZIP-level series constitute a separate product.  Note that the full population of metro areas are forecasted only for the single-family aggregate index.

    CSI Forecast CSI County-Plus
  U.S. State Metro County ZIP
  Concept/Geo US ^^ M^^^ DM^^^ ^^^^^ Z^^^^^
Single-family homes              
   Aggregate FHCSHP1TIQ             1           51         366           29  408 *   4,591 * 
      Low tier FHCSHP1LIQ             1           14           38           17            -              -  
      Mid tier FHCSHP1MIQ             1           14           38           17            -              -  
      High tier FHCSHP1HIQ             1           14           38           17            -              -  
   Low/mid tier break ** FHCSHP1L$Q            -    14 *   38 *   17 *             -              -  
   Mid/high tier break ** FHCSHP1H$Q            -    14 *   38 *   17 *             -              -  
Condominiums              
   Aggregate FHCSHPCTIQ            -              -             24           14            -              -  
* Alternative scenarios (_B and _S^) not produced.
** Not forecasted.

Index Base and Date Range: The indices have a uniform base period of 2000q1=100.  The forecast time series start at 1975q1 and have a 30-year forecast horizon (currently 2040q4).  For full details, consult Mnemonic 411.

Tier Indices: The aggregate index is based on the entire dataset of home sale pairs.  The tier indices are based on three subsets: the homes are arranged by their initial sales price and divided into three equal groups.  The price boundary ($) between each tier is the tier break.  The tier breaks are not forecasted, despite the "F-" prefix on their mnemonics; they are copied directly from the Fiserv historical dataset, and are included in this product as a convenience.  It is impossible to derive a minimum, maximum, or median sales price from these data.

Table 2. Alternative forecast scenarios; which include the same selection of concepts as the Current forecast, but for the U.S., state, and metro levels only.  Price tier breaks, counties and ZIP codes do not have alternatives.  Assumptions are shared with the U.S. forecasts, and are documented under menu:Tools » Reference Files » Forecast Documentation.

Identifier Databank Description Probability
_B CSWFOR_B.db Baseline (same as Current forecast) 50/50
_S1 CSWFOR_S1.db Confidence rebounds, stronger recovery in 2010 10% better/90% worse
_S2 CSWFOR_S2.db Weaker recovery, mild second recession 75/25
_S3 CSWFOR_S3.db More severe second recession (double-dip) 90/10
_S4 CSWFOR_S4.db Complete collapse, depression 96/4
_S5 CSWFOR_S5.db Aborted recovery, below-trend long-term growth 96/4
_S6 CSWFOR_S6.db Fiscal crisis, dollar crashes, inflation (stagflation) 90/10

Databanks: The CSI forecast time series are stored across a variety of physical databanks.  In the event it is necessary to manually activate them, they are accessible from the Settings » Default Databanks menu.  They are known as CSWFOR.db, CSICTFOR.db, and CSWZIPFOR.db. The scenario databanks are CSWFOR_B.db and CSWFOR_Sn.db for n=1...6.

Basket Considerations:

Due to the large number of series, to download the whole set you may wish to use several baskets; this will improve performance.

Use "data in rows" because the Excel file format is limited to 256 columns.  (Basket editor, Options » File » File » Layout = Row.)

To download multiple series, use the concept code and the geo wildcard. The wildcard for all MSAs is M^^^, the letter "M" followed by three carets.  For metropolitan divisions use DM^^^. A county code consists of the state's two-letter abbreviation followed by three digits (e.g., PA001); to get all counties is ^^^^^ (five carets), which will also match all metro divisions. ZIP code areas are the letter "Z" and five carets.  To get all the geographies of any type, use "?".

To retrieve related scenarios, append the scenario identifier to the concept code, e.g. FHCSHP1TIQ_B or FHCSHP1TIQ_S1. To download all six alternative scenarios, use the wildcard FHCSHP1TIQ_S^, and for all seven including the baseline, use FHCSHP1TIQ_?.



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