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Estimates Revision: U.S. subnational - Output in natural resources and mining - Method
Friday, 05 Oct 2018 08:02 ET
By Daniel Luckenbach, Mary Krajsa
Summary
October 2018 -- Moody's Analytics has modified its methodology for "Detailed Estimates of State and Metropolitan GDP" as pertains to the "natural resources and mining" supersector (1,084 annual and 828 quarterly series revised, 1977 to 1996).
Detail

Scope of the revision

  • Industry aggregate: Supersector "natural resources and mining" (RM)
  • Geos: All states and District of Columbia, 13 regions, 383 metropolitan areas, 31 metropolitan divisions
  • Periods: States and regions are modified principally during the historical segment, 1977 to 1996, with less effect on the projected segment. Metropolitan areas and divisions are revised from 1978 through 2048.

Changes in methodology

We have made one change:

  • Before: Used the BLS definition of the industry supersector (NAICS 21 + 1133) for early history, and the BEA definition (21 + 11) for later history.
  • Now: Use the BEA definition for the entire history, so that our subnational series better track corresponding national series and the BEA.

Product background

The Moody's Analytics Detailed Estimates of Output dataset may be used directly, and is also an input to the Moody's Analytics regional forecasts. It contains series such as:

  • RGDPQ.IUSA        = Output for all industries (nominal) - for the U.S.
  • RGDPRM$Q.PA       = Natural resources and mining (real) - for Pennsylvania
  • RGDP11Q.IUSA_MPHI = Agriculture; Forestry; Fishing and Hunting (nominal) - for Philadelphia MSA
  • RGDP1133$A.PA017  = Logging (real) - for Bucks County, Pennsylvania

To summarize the dataset's scope: Geo coverage includes the U.S., regions, states, CBSAs and counties. Industry detail varies by geo level. Concepts exist in nominal-real pairs (current dollars and chained year-2009 dollars). Concepts exist in quarterly-annual pairs for all extant industry levels and geo levels, except for counties, which are annual only. At both frequencies, the series run from 1977 to 2048, where 1977 to 2017 is the historical segment and 2018 to 2048 is the projected segment (matching the 30-year forecast horizon of our related forecast products).

Other
Related ReleaseHistorical GDP Estimates - States
SourceMoody's Analytics (ECCA)
FrequencyQuarterly
GeographyUnited States
Upcoming
Release DateReference date
03 Jul 20241Q 2024