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TitleAvailability: Global National Forecasts
AuthorPhillip Thorne
Question

February 12, 2013 -- What are the schedules for updates to the Moody's Analytics U.S. and global forecasts and alternative scenarios? Where is the written documentation?

Answer

When is my favorite forecasted series ready? Our forecasted time series are grouped into models, and all series in a model are updated at once.

Why doesn't the forecasted series include the latest values of its historical driver? When a driver is updated, we do not individually and immediately update the forecast (i.e., the historical segment of the corresponding forecasted series); instead, we do so when (a) the model runs, and (b) only if a full quarter of the driver is available. This is one reason care is necessary when comparing driver-forecast pairs. (See also: comparing series with different frequencies [faq], do forecasts contain historical actuals [faq], and find corresponding series [faq].)

If you need the latest value of the driver, and you need it promptly, please use the historical series.  This avoids any complications with frequency and synchronization.

Conversely, if you subscribe only to the forecasted series, the historical segment is perfectly usable, for certain purposes; but it may not exactly match the original historical data, because it has been transformed to suit the purposes of the forecast.  In short: you cannot unscramble an egg.

When are the models ready? Generally, once a month. We have several models and run them in sequence, starting with the U.S. Macro and proceeding to smaller areas, specialized indicators and the global forecasts.  The output of this first run is what we call the "current" forecasts.

What about alternative scenarios? We run the models a second time about a week after their respective current forecasts. The "baseline" (_B) series accompany the scenario series (_S1 to _S6).  The baseline is numerically equal to the current forecast, if and only if they have the same vintage.

Is there a specific schedule? In all cases we publish only after our researchers review the model output, and we meet our quality standards; hence, all “next” dates shown below and in Mnemonic 411 are targets and subject to change.  (For the time, assume "end of business day.")

How will I know? Using Mnemonic 411 you can view the release calendar for a series, and you can subscribe to receive email notification when they update. Or, you can add a triggered schedule and delivery to a basket such that the basket runs and transmits its output when there's a change. (With historical series, use the "new point" option; with forecast series, use "any change.")

Topic, Geo Level
or Geo
Target DatesMethodNarratives
CurrentScenarios
  Last    Next    Last    Next  
U.S. Forecasts:
Nation (Macro) 2/11 3/11 1/09 2/15 [Methodology document] [Scenario assumptions document]
States 1/17 2/17 1/25 2/23 [Methodology document] See Macro
Metropolitan Areas 1/31 2/26 1/31 2/27 [Methodology document] See Macro
Counties 1/04 2/28       See Macro
U.S. Housing Forecasts:
Housing Stock 2/04 2/28     [Methodology document]  
Case-Shiller® Home Price Index 2/08 3/08 1/11 2/20 [Methodology document] See Macro
RealtyTrac Foreclosures 2/01 2/28     [Methodology document]  
Global National Forecasts (about):
Consolidated schedule 1/15 2/20 1/29 2/28   27 available
48 countries, with narratives for 22 select countries (Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Philippines, Russia, Singapore, South Korea, Spain, Taiwan, Thailand, U.K.) and five regions (Asia, central and eastern Europe, euro zone, global, South America)
Global Metro Areas Forecasts (about):
200-plus areas in 41 countries 1/08 n/a     [Methodology document]  

Table column legend

  1. Topic, Geo Level or Geo: Hyperlink to a time series exemplar in Mnemonic 411 [faq], our central repository of per-series metadata, documentation, and advance release calendars.
  2. Updates/Current/Last: The date of the last update of the model’s “current” scenario. All series in a forecast are updated at the same time.
  3. Updates/Current/Next: Target date of the next model update, subject to change, as of this writing.
  4. Updates/Scenarios/Last: Most recent update to the “alternative” and “baseline” scenarios. See also: Forecast FAQ, question 19 [faq].
  5. Updates/Scenarios/Next: Target date for the next update to the scenarios.
  6. Method: Hyperlink to the forecast methodology, a detailed explanation of the model. If available, this is stored among our reference files [faq].
  7. Narrative: A written explanation of the assumptions for each alternative scenario; also among the reference files, and updated as needed. Unless otherwise noted, our specialized models use the same assumptions as the U.S. Macro model.


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