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Forecast Note: U.S. - Case-Shiller® Scenarios [June 2009]
Friday, 06 Aug 2010 09:22 ET
By Michael Zoller
June 23, 2009 -- The Case-Shiller® Scenario Forecasts for June 2009 are now available, with greater variation in the unemployment rate forecasts in the downside scenarios. Further, a fifth scenario has been added.

Each month, Moody's Economy.com updates a set of quarterly forecasts based on the Case-Shiller® Home Price Index (CSI™). 

The June 2009 vintage incorporates some significant changes. With this update, we have allowed for greater variation in the unemployment rate forecasts, particularly in the downside scenarios. The peak jobless rate is higher in S2-S4 than in the May vintage. As a consequence, the peak-to-trough house price declines are also more severe in S2-S4 than in May.

Also, we have added a fifth downside scenario that accounts for a 'double dip' recession in which long term growth is below the baseline.

The five scenarios are:

  • S1: Confidence rebounds, earlier recovery
  • S2: Deeper recession, weaker recovery
  • S3: Prolonged credit squeeze, very severe recession
  • S4: Complete collapse, depression
  • S5: Aborted recovery, below-trend long-term growth

For comparison of Case-Shiller® products offered by Moody's Economy.com, please see this March 2008 article.

For general information about using our forecasts, please see this FAQ entry.

Related ReleaseCoreLogic Case-Shiller House Price Index Forecast
SourceMoody's Analytics (ECCA)
GeographyUnited States
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