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Forecast Note: Cross-country - Data inputs to global macro model [Mar 2019]
Friday, 09 Aug 2019 11:43 ET
By Richard Cross
Summary
March 2019 -- A summary of changes to historical datasets that will be integrated into the March vintage of the Moody's Analytics global macro model, and the impact thereon (21 countries impacted).
Detail

Changes to model inputs

Inputs to the Moody's Analytics forecast models encompass both historical verbatim datasets and Moody's Analytics historical estimates. Changes include our choice of source entity, source series, redefinition of a series by its source, or revision of a series that is otherwise unchanged.

When a country name is marked (*), the change flows into relevant regional aggregates.

Changes to forecast mnemonics

None.

Changes to forecast metadata

See below.

CountryVariableCommentRevised intervalForecast mnemonic(s)
Bahrain Sovereign yields Source changed from IMF to central bank, due to lag, quality and transparency. See historical. All FRGT3MQ.IBHR
Chile CPI (consumer price index) Rebased from 2013 to 2018. See historical. All FCPIQ.ICHL
Colombia CPI Rebased from 2008 to 2018. See historical. All FCPIQ.ICOL
Denmark Monetary policy rate Source changed to daily fundamental All FRMPOLQ.IDNK
Egypt CPI Source changed from IMF to CAPMAS, and rebased from 2010 to 2010m1. See historical. All FCPIQ.IEGY
France GVA (gross value added) Re-referenced from 2010 to 2014. See historical. All multiple
France Personal income Benchmarked and revised. See historical. All FYPD.IFRA
Hong Kong Monetary policy rate Source changed to daily fundamental All FRMPOLQ.IHKG
Hong Kong Money market rate ibid All FRMMQ.IHKG
Israel Government finance Redefined to GFSM 2014. See historical. All multiple
Italy Money supply Metadata changed from SA to NSA   FM3LQ.IITA
Malaysia Money supply Metadata changed from SA to NSA   FM3LQ.IMYS
New Zealand Banking claims on private sector Redefined from non-SRF to SRF data All FDCREDLQ.INZL
Nigeria Monetary policy rate Source changed from IMF to central bank, due to lag and quality. See historical. All FRMPOLQ.INGA
Nigeria Time deposit rate ibid See historical. All FRCDQ.INGA
Norway PPI (producer price index) Rebased from 2000 to 2015. See historical. All FPPIQ.INOR
Oman Money supply Source changed from IMF to central bank, due to lag. See historical. All FM2LQ.IOMN
Philippines Commercial lending rate Source changed from IMF to central bank, due to lag and quality All FRLENDQ.IPHL
Philippines Monetary policy rate Source changed to daily fundamental All FRMPOLQ.IPHL
Philippines Money market rate ibid All FRMMQ.IPHL
Philippines multiple Metadata changed to reflect merger of sources, i.e., PSA succeeds NSO and BLES   multiple
Russia Sovereign yields Redefined to new spot rate methodology. See historical. All FRGT(3,5,10)YQ.IRUS
Spain Retail sales Source changed from Eurostat to INE, due to frequent withholding of data All FRTSALESI(,$)Q.IESP
Switzerland Lending rate Source changed from IMF to central bank, due to lag and quality All FRLENDQ.ICHE
U.K. PPI Metadata changed from SA to NSA   FPPIQ.IGBR
U.S. CRE price index Interpolated over missing periods 1946q1 to 1951q3 FZFL075035503Q.IUSA
U.S. Retail sales Metadata changed from SAAR to CDASAAR   multiple
Vietnam Monetary policy rate Interpolated 2004q4 FRMPOLQ.IVNM

See also

Forecasts:

Historical:

Updates

  • 12 Mar - Initial version
  • 9 Aug - URL syntax corrected
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