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Forecast Note: Cross-country - Data inputs to global macro model [Jan 2019]
Monday, 07 Jan 2019 18:10 ET
By Richard Cross
Summary
January 2019 -- A summary of changes to historical datasets that will be integrated into the January vintage of the Moody's Analytics global macro model, and the impact thereon (14 countries impacted).
Detail

Changes to model inputs

Inputs to the Moody's Analytics forecast models encompass both historical verbatim datasets and Moody's Analytics historical estimates. Changes include our choice of source and series, redefinition of a series by a source, and revisions to a series that is otherwise unchanged.

Potential GDP, for the seven countries listed below, is estimated by Moody's Analytics.

CountryVariableCommentRevised intervalMnemonic
Argentina Potential GDP Revised. All FGDP$_POT.IARG
Australia Lending rate Source changed from IMF to RBA; no revision, makes data more timely, mitigates risks caused by IFS quality issues. None FRLENDQ.IAUS
Bahrain Potential GDP Revised. All FGDP$_POT.IBHR
Canada Building construction price index Rebased from 2002 to 2017; composition expanded from 7 to 11 metro areas. See historical.   FHPICOMNUQ.ICAN
Canada Productivity: Index of average hourly earnings Rebased from 2007 to 2012. See historical.   FAHEIRWQ.ICAN
Canada Productivity: Index of GDP per hours worked Rebased from 2007 to 2012. See historical.   FPRODQ.ICAN
Canada Productivity: Index of unit labor costs Rebased from 2007 to 2012. See historical.   FULCQ.ICAN
Denmark Monetary policy rate Extended using IMFIFS%FPOLMUM.IDNK. 1957Q1 to 1984Q4 FRMPOLQ.IDNK
France Potential GDP Revised. All FGDP$_POT.IFRA
Japan Capacity utilization Rebased from 2010 to 2015. See historical.   FCUMFQ.IJPN
Kuwait Potential GDP Revised. All FGDP$_POT.IKWT
Malta Potential GDP Revised. All FGDP$_POT.IMLT
Myanmar Potential GDP Revised. All FGDP$_POT.IMMR
Norway Monetary policy rate Extended using (0.98*IR%CBONLUD.INOR). 1982Q2 to 1990Q4 FRMPOLQ.INOR
South Korea Potential GDP Revised. All FGDP$_POT.IKOR
U.S. Birth rate New and revised inputs. Back to 2010 FBRQ.IUSA
U.S. Death rate New and revised inputs. Back to 2010 FDRQ.IUSA
U.S. Population New and revised inputs. Back to 2010 FPOP?Q.IUSA
Venezuela Foreign exchange rates Fixed to account for redenomination from VEF to VES; our forecasts will remain in VEF. From 2018Q3 FTFXI^^^Q.IVEN

Changes to forecast mnemonics

None.

See also

Other
Related ReleaseGlobal Country Forecast - Baseline
SourceMoody's Analytics (ECCA)
FrequencyMonthly
GeographyWorld
Upcoming
Release DateReference date
06 Aug 2019Aug 2019
Related ReleaseGlobal Country Forecast - Scenarios
SourceMoody's Analytics (ECCA)
FrequencyMonthly
GeographyWorld
Upcoming
Release DateReference date
13 Aug 2019Aug 2019
Related ReleaseU.S. Forecast - Baseline
SourceMoody's Analytics (ECCA)
FrequencyMonthly
GeographyUnited States
Catalog
Upcoming
Release DateReference date
06 Aug 2019Aug 2019