Timeline
We will publish our regulatory scenarios for the following databases or services as follows (counting in calendar days, EOD unless otherwise noted, times Eastern). We will add specific dates to this table when the CCAR 2020 hypothetical scenarios are published by the Federal Reserve Board. Be advised that this timeline may change if FRB issues corrections.
Day | Target | Time | Product | Status | Day/time |
0 |
6 Feb (Thu) |
|
FRB releases its CCAR hypothetical scenarios |
Complete |
6 Feb 5:00 pm ET |
1 |
7 Feb (Fri) |
|
Historical reconciliation document |
Complete |
7 Feb 2:30 pm |
2 |
8 Feb (Sat) |
|
U.S. macro forecast (Q) |
Complete |
8 Feb 10:45 am |
2 |
" |
|
U.S. macro forecast (M) |
Complete |
8 Feb 10:45 am |
2 |
" |
|
U.S. macro forecast in Scenario Studio |
Complete |
8 Feb 11:10 am |
4 |
10 Feb (Mon) |
|
U.S. state forecast (Q) |
Complete |
9 Feb 1:55 pm |
4 |
" |
|
U.S. state forecast (M) |
Complete |
9 Feb 5:40 pm |
4 |
" |
|
U.S. narratives |
Complete |
12 Feb 9:10 am |
4.5 |
11 Feb (Tue) |
Noon |
Global macro forecast |
Complete |
11 Feb 10:20 am |
5 |
" |
|
Global macro forecast in Scenario Studio |
Complete |
11 Feb 2:20 pm |
5 |
" |
|
Global financial markets database |
Complete |
11 Feb 3:40 pm |
6 |
12 Feb (Wed) |
11:00 |
Webinar briefing (replay) |
Complete |
12 Feb 11:00 am |
6 |
" |
|
U.S. metro area forecast |
Complete |
10 Feb 4:50 pm |
6 |
" |
|
Bank call report forecasts |
Complete |
11 Feb 12:20 pm |
7 |
13 Feb (Thu) |
|
Case-Shiller® Home Price Index Forecast |
Complete |
12 Feb 10:40 am |
8 |
14 Feb (Fri) |
|
CreditForecast.com |
Complete |
12 Feb 10:30 am |
9 |
15 Feb (Sat) |
|
AutoCycle |
Complete |
13 Feb 4:20 pm |
10 |
16 Feb (Sun) |
|
Global macro narratives (South America, Developing Asia, Japan, euro zone) |
Complete |
14 Feb 5:15 am |
The Moody’s Analytics regulatory scenarios are an add-on product; for details, please contact your sales representative.
The scenario narratives are available in the "Reference Files" section of Data Buffet, and through the forecast catalog Geography Wizard.
Background
The U.S. Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010 stipulates that the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (“FRB”) shall conduct an annual Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (“CCAR”) in which certain banks evaluate their forward-looking capital planning processing to account for unique risks and to ensure they have adequate capital to continue operations during periods of economic and financial stress (that is, “perform stress tests”).
As part of this exercise, FRB publishes three “supervisory scenarios,” each consisting of some 30 time series with history and a short future horizon. These constitute a snapshot (dataset 1), and Data Buffet stores them separately from the “live” series actively updated by respective sources (dataset 2). Our “regulatory scenarios” (dataset 3) use the FRB data as assumptions, and are distinct from our “standard” monthly scenarios (dataset 4). For each of these four datasets, the purpose, concept codes, update schedule and pricing are separate. Please see the "CCAR historical reconciliation" document (linked below) for an explanation of the differences.
See also
CCAR 2020:
Background:
Previous years:
Updates
- 22 Nov 2019 - Initial version of this article.
- 7 Feb 2020 - Target dates set. Historical reconciliation document.
- 13 Feb 2020 - Changed webinar link from registration to replay.
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