To ensure the highest-quality forecasts, Moody's Analytics periodically revises its forecast methodology for selected variables. The attached documents describe these changes in detail, with an overview (for example, what changed and why), previous equation specifications, and new equation specifications. New equation specifications will appear in Mnemonic 411.

Respecified

FAHETTPQ.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (August 2019): Avg. Hrly Earnings: All Employees - Total Private, (USD per hr., SA)

FELE.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (August 2019): Energy: Utility Retail Sales of Electricity - All Sectors, (Mil. kWh, SA)

FTFXTW$Q.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (August 2019): Effective Exchange Rate - Real Broad Index, (Index 2010=100, NSA)

Re-estimated

FTFXTWULC$_I.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (August 2019): IMF Real Effective Exchange Rate - ULC based [Intermediate term], (Index 2010=100, NSA)

• USFOR201908_Average_Hourly_Earnings.pdf
• USFOR201908_Real_Exchange_rate.pdf
• USFOR201908_US_Effective_Exchange_Rate.pdf
• USFOR201908_Utility_Electricity_Sales.pdf