Detail |
To ensure the highest quality forecasts, Moody's Analytics will periodically add forecasts for series for which country data become available. In addition, Moody’s Analytics adjusts equations to improve model performance based on regular diagnostic testing each month.
In May, more than 200 equations were respecified. While the changes vary across countries, some key revisions were made to price, government and financial series. Series additions include new employment details for a handful of countries and five new U.S. agricultural prices. External debt was also added to a majority of countries, while the current account balance to GDP ratio has been added to all countries in the Global Model.
Summaries of the concepts added and changed to the baseline forecast are as follows. The attached document provides details of the equation re-specifications for existing series. The corresponding alternative scenarios are similarly affected.
Series additions
- New industry employment details (Vietnam, Brazil, Philippines, Thailand, Taiwan, Honk Kong, Singapore)
- New industry GVA details (Vietnam)
- Total external debt (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Algeria, Egypt, Hungary, India, South Korea, Luxembourg, Malta, Peru, Poland, Russia, Singapore, Thailand, Turkey, Taiwan, Venezuela, Vietnam, South Africa, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Indonesia, Mexico, Philippines, Slovak Republic, Uruguay)
- General government external debt (Argentina, Brazil, Switzerland, China, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Mexico, Philippines, Poland, Russia, Turkey, Taiwan, South Africa, Malaysia, Thailand)
- Private external debt (Australia, Argentina, Canada, China, Egypt, France, Hong Kong, India, South Korea, Mexico, Netherlands, Singapore, U.S., Germany, Indonesia, Malaysia)
- Short-term external debt (Brazil, China, Indonesia, South Korea, Mexico, Malaysia, Poland, Russia, Singapore, Turkey, Taiwan, Vietnam, Argentina, India, Philippines, Thailand, South Africa)
- Current account balance-to-GDP ratio (all countries in Global Model)
- MBA Applications Survey: Terms - Effective rate - FHA (U.S.)
- Government Two-Year Bond Yield (Singapore)
- Dow Jones Euro STOXX 50 Index (Euro Zone)
- Three new Canada Real Estate Associate house price series
- Single family
- Apartment
- Composite
- Five new livestock and agricultural prices for the U.S.
- Feeder cattle
- Hogs
- Corn
- Soybeans
- Wheat
Series changes
The table below summarizes the number of equation changes by country due to regular monthly diagnostics. Please see the attached file for details of the series that have changed as well as their new and old model specifications.
U.A.E.
|
5
|
Argentina
|
4
|
Australia
|
2
|
Austria
|
3
|
Bulgaria
|
4
|
Bahrain
|
3
|
Canada
|
8
|
China
|
2
|
Colombia
|
3
|
Cyprus
|
1
|
Czech Republic
|
1
|
Germany
|
1
|
Egypt
|
3
|
U.K.
|
1
|
Greece
|
1
|
Hong Kong
|
11
|
India
|
6
|
Ireland
|
1
|
Ireland
|
1
|
Italy
|
1
|
Jordan
|
1
|
Japan
|
13
|
Cambodia
|
9
|
South Korea
|
4
|
Kuwait
|
9
|
Laos
|
1
|
Lebanon
|
2
|
Lithuania
|
1
|
Latvia
|
2
|
Mexico
|
1
|
Malta
|
2
|
Myanmar
|
6
|
Malaysia
|
1
|
Nigeria
|
16
|
Netherlands
|
4
|
New Zealand
|
1
|
Oman
|
3
|
Peru
|
3
|
Philippines
|
2
|
Portugal
|
1
|
Qatar
|
7
|
Romania
|
14
|
Russia
|
12
|
Saudi Arabia
|
2
|
Singapore
|
1
|
Thailand
|
1
|
Taiwan
|
2
|
Ukraine
|
6
|
Vietnam
|
11
|
South Africa
|
2
|
U.S.
|
3
|
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