Logout / Access Other products Drop Down Arrow
Get live help Monday-Friday from 7:00AM-7:00PM ET (11:00AM-11:00PM GMT)  •  Contact Us
Check out our new FAQ section!
RSS Feed
TitleForecast Note: Cross-country - GDP in USD terms
AuthorRichard Cross
Question

In the Moody's Analytics global forecast, we convert Myanmar and Venezuela GDP to USD terms, but over select intervals we do not use the official FX rate.

Answer

Our forecasts of GDP in U.S. dollars (USD) are converted from local-currency terms. In order of preference we use foreign exchange rates (1) published in the Federal Reserve G.5 and H.10 releases, then for additional currencies, (2) the IMF. Both datasets republish official rates, not market rates, which is problematic when official rates are fictitious and overvalue the local currency. In such cases we have adopted (3) a method of implied FX rates used by the United Nations Statistics Division in their System of National Accounts Analysis of Main Aggregates (SNAAMA).

We have applied this method for the following countries, currencies and intervals:

  • Myanmar, kyat (MMK), 1986Q1 to 2012Q1
  • Venezuela, bolivar fuerte (VEF), 2014 to 2017

The series reside in the forecast catalog (Global - National » National accounts) and include, for example:

  • FGDPD$Q.IMMR   = Gross domestic product, (Bil. 2009 USD, SAAR) - for Myanmar
  • FGDPDQ.IMMR    = Gross domestic product, (Bil. USD, SAAR)
  • FGDPLQ.IVEN    = Gross domestic product, (Bil. VEF, SAAR) - for Venezuela
  • FTFXIUSAQ.IMMR = Nominal exchange rate, (MMK per USD, NSA)
  • FTFXIUSAQ.IVEN = Nominal exchange rate, (VEF per USD, NSA)

References



Related Releases
Global Country Forecast - Baseline