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Forecast Changes: International Macro Models (October 2018)
Thursday, 11 Oct 2018 15:50 ET
By Andrew Rechenberg
Summary
October 2018 – As a part of the October vintage of the Moody's Analytics international macro forecasts, several model equations were revised. Changes in model methodology led to updates to the equations for euro zone financials, commodity prices, and the stock price index. Additionally, we have added a number of new forecast series, principally in the United States and China, as well as two new commodity prices, for iron ore and palm oil.
Detail

To ensure the highest quality forecasts, Moody's Analytics will periodically add forecasts for series for which country data become available or revise history for existing concepts based on changes in how they are reported by their national offices. In addition, Moody’s Analytics adjusts equations to improve model performance based on regular diagnostic testing each month.

In October, two examples of methodologically motivated changes led to changes in a range of concepts. Euro zone financials were adjusted to better embed our detailed financial model and ensure consistency with previous stress-testing. The stock price index was respecified to account for horizontal connections and capture more global linkages in the model. Several equation revisions to Colombia were made as a result of revisions to historical data.

 

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