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Forecast Note: Cross-country - Data inputs to global macro model [May 2019]
Friday, 09 Aug 2019 11:45 ET
By Richard Cross
Summary
May 2019 -- A summary of changes to historical datasets that will be integrated into the May vintage of the Moody's Analytics global macro model, and the impact thereon (eight countries impacted, plus relevant regional aggregates).
Detail

Changes to model inputs

Inputs to the Moody's Analytics forecast models encompass both historical verbatim datasets and Moody's Analytics historical estimates. Changes originate in the source (revision or redefinition), our choice of inputs (source entity or specific series), and our pre-processing of inputs.

When a country name is marked (*), the change flows from a single country into relevant regional aggregates.

Changes to forecast mnemonics

None.

Changes to forecast metadata

None.

Summary table

CountryVariableCommentRevised intervalForecast mnemonic(s)
Cambodia Implicit price deflator for exports of goods and services Changed interpolation, to prevent negative values. All FPDIEXGSQ.IKHM
Cambodia Ibid, for imports Ibid. All FPDIIMGSQ.IKHM
China (*) Lending rate Changed source from IMF monthly to central bank (PBoC) daily, to improve quarterly average and timeliness. All FRLENDQ.ICHN
Ireland Gross capital formation Changed from identity (GFCF+CI) to as-reported. All FIL(,$)Q.IIRL
Lebanon M3 money supply Changed source from IMF to central bank (BdL). All FM3LQ.ILBN
Malaysia Interbank overnight rate Changed source from IMF monthly to central bank (BNM) daily. All FRMMQ.IMYS
Saudi Arabia Stock market index Changed source to SIX Financial. All FSTOCKPQ.ISAU
U.S. Brent petroleum price Changed source from ECB quarterly to ICE daily. All FCPIFICEBOIU.IUSA
U.S. PPI for manufacture of petroleum and coal products Interpolated over missing values in underlying monthly series. Prior year FXPPI324$.IUSA
U.S. SOFR Used FRBNY data to back-extend to 1998. See historical. 1998Q1 to 2014Q2 FRSOFRQ.IUSA
Vietnam General government operations Changed interpolation from cubic to linear, to reduce volatility. All FGG?Q.IVNM

See also

Forecasts:

Historical:

Updates

  • 6 May - Initial version
  • 9 Aug - URL syntax corrected
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