Moody's Analytics Buffet Blog

Summary

February 2019 -- A summary of changes to historical datasets that will be integrated into the February vintage of the Moody's Analytics global macro model, and the impact thereon (20 countries impacted).

Detail

Changes to model inputs

Inputs to the Moody's Analytics forecast models encompass both historical verbatim datasets and Moody's Analytics historical estimates. Changes include our choice of source and series, redefinition of a series by a source, and revisions to a series that is otherwise unchanged.

Potential GDP is estimated by Moody's Analytics.

When country name is marked (*), the change flows into relevant regional aggregates.

Changes to forecast mnemonics

None.

Changes to forecast metadata

See below.

Country	Variable	Comment	Revised interval	Forecast mnemonic(s)
Algeria	Potential GDP	Refined.	All	`FGDP$_POT.IDZA`
Argentina	Monetary policy rate	Changed from LEBAC rate (short-term central bank securities) to BCRA-spliced monetary policy rate.		`FRMPOLQ.IARG`
Canada	Capital stock	Re-referenced to 2012. See historical.	All	`FKL$Q.ICAN`
Canada	Population	Substantially revised. See historical.	From 2010	`FPOP$Q.ICAN`
Canada	Mortgage lending rate	Changed source from StatCan to CMHC. See historical.	None	`FRMORT5YQ.ICAN`
Czech Republic	GFCF (gross fixed capital formation) in real USD	Corrected scale of values to match "Bil." metadata.	All	`FIFD$Q.ICZE`
Egypt (*)	PPI (producer price index)	Changed source from IMF to CAPMAS, and rebased from 2010 to 2016. See historical.	All	`FPPIQ.IEGY`
Euro zone	IPI (industrial production index)	Rebased to 2015.	All	`FIPQ.IEUZN`
Greece	RSI (retail sales index)	Rebased to 2015. See historical.	All	`FRTSALESIQ.IGRC FRTSALESI$Q.IGRC`
Hong Kong	Monetary policy rate	Metadata corrected to reflect which interest rate is being forecasted.	None	`FRMPOLQ.IHKG`
India	Yield on 10-year government securities	Integrated data from RBI to improve timeliness.	None	`FRGT10YQ.IIND`
Lithuania	IPI	Rebased to 2015. See historical.	All	`FIPQ.ILTU`
Malta	Population	Substantially revised.	From 2010	`FPOP?Q.IMLT`
Myanmar	Potential GDP	Refined.	All	`FGDP$_POT.IMMR`
Netherlands	IPI	Rebased to 2015. See historical.	All	`FIPQ.INLD`
Peru	GFCF in real USD	Corrected scale of values to match "Bil." metadata.	All	`FIFD$Q.IPER`
Philippines (*)	LFS (labor force status)	Adjusted to remove a break at 2005.	Prior to 2005	`FLBFQ.IPHL FLBEQ.IPHL FLBUQ.IPHL FLBRQ.IPHL`
Singapore	GFCF in real USD	Corrected scale of values to match "Bil." metadata.	All	`FIFD$Q.ISGP`
South Africa	GFCF in real USD	Corrected scale of values to match "Bil." metadata.	All	`FIFD$Q.IZAF`
U.A.E.	CPI	Metadata corrected to show SA.	None	`FCPIQ.IARE`
U.S.	Labor measures	Integrated BLS benchmark revision. See historical.
U.S.	GDP	No historical update; expected dissemination interrupted by federal shutdown.
U.S.	NIPA measures	Ibid
U.S.	Personal income and components	Ibid		`FYPLQ.IUSA etc.`

See also

Other articles in this series
Data Change: Canada - Flows and stocks of fixed non-residential capital - Re-referenced to 2012 (Jan 2019)
Estimates Revision: Canada - Population projections by age - Method (Aug 2018)
Discontinued Data: Canada - Selected credit measures - Partial (Dec 2018)
New Data: Egypt - PPI (Oct 2018)
Data Change: Greece - RSI - Rebased to 2015 (Jan 2019)
Data Change: Lithuania - IPI - Rebased to 2015 (Jun 2018)
Data Change: Netherlands - IPI - Rebased to 2015 (Jan 2019)
Data Revision: U.S. - BLS Employment Situation - Benchmark [2018] (Feb 2019)

Other

Related Release

Global Country Forecast - Scenarios

Source

Moody's Analytics (ECCA)

Frequency

Monthly

Geography

World

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