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Forecast Note: Cross-country - Data inputs to global macro model [Feb 2019]
Tuesday, 05 Feb 2019 13:11 ET
By Richard Cross
Summary
February 2019 -- A summary of changes to historical datasets that will be integrated into the February vintage of the Moody's Analytics global macro model, and the impact thereon (20 countries impacted).
Detail

Changes to model inputs

Inputs to the Moody's Analytics forecast models encompass both historical verbatim datasets and Moody's Analytics historical estimates. Changes include our choice of source and series, redefinition of a series by a source, and revisions to a series that is otherwise unchanged.

Potential GDP is estimated by Moody's Analytics.

When country name is marked (*), the change flows into relevant regional aggregates.

Changes to forecast mnemonics

None.

Changes to forecast metadata

See below.

CountryVariableCommentRevised intervalForecast mnemonic(s)
Algeria Potential GDP Refined. All FGDP$_POT.IDZA
Argentina Monetary policy rate Changed from LEBAC rate (short-term central bank securities) to BCRA-spliced monetary policy rate.   FRMPOLQ.IARG
Canada Capital stock Re-referenced to 2012. See historical. All FKL$Q.ICAN
Canada Population Substantially revised. See historical. From 2010 FPOP$Q.ICAN
Canada Mortgage lending rate Changed source from StatCan to CMHC. See historical. None FRMORT5YQ.ICAN
Czech Republic GFCF (gross fixed capital formation) in real USD Corrected scale of values to match "Bil." metadata. All FIFD$Q.ICZE
Egypt (*) PPI (producer price index) Changed source from IMF to CAPMAS, and rebased from 2010 to 2016. See historical. All FPPIQ.IEGY
Euro zone IPI (industrial production index) Rebased to 2015. All FIPQ.IEUZN
Greece RSI (retail sales index) Rebased to 2015. See historical. All FRTSALESIQ.IGRC
FRTSALESI$Q.IGRC
Hong Kong Monetary policy rate Metadata corrected to reflect which interest rate is being forecasted. None FRMPOLQ.IHKG
India Yield on 10-year government securities Integrated data from RBI to improve timeliness. None FRGT10YQ.IIND
Lithuania IPI Rebased to 2015. See historical. All FIPQ.ILTU
Malta Population Substantially revised. From 2010 FPOP?Q.IMLT
Myanmar Potential GDP Refined. All FGDP$_POT.IMMR
Netherlands IPI Rebased to 2015. See historical. All FIPQ.INLD
Peru GFCF in real USD Corrected scale of values to match "Bil." metadata. All FIFD$Q.IPER
Philippines (*) LFS (labor force status) Adjusted to remove a break at 2005. Prior to 2005 FLBFQ.IPHL
FLBEQ.IPHL
FLBUQ.IPHL
FLBRQ.IPHL
Singapore GFCF in real USD Corrected scale of values to match "Bil." metadata. All FIFD$Q.ISGP
South Africa GFCF in real USD Corrected scale of values to match "Bil." metadata. All FIFD$Q.IZAF
U.A.E. CPI Metadata corrected to show SA. None FCPIQ.IARE
U.S. Labor measures Integrated BLS benchmark revision. See historical.    
U.S. GDP No historical update; expected dissemination interrupted by federal shutdown.    
U.S. NIPA measures Ibid    
U.S. Personal income and components Ibid   FYPLQ.IUSA
etc.

See also

Other
Related ReleaseGlobal Country Forecast - Scenarios
SourceMoody's Analytics (ECCA)
FrequencyMonthly
GeographyWorld
Upcoming
Release DateReference date
17 Sep 2019Sep 2019
Related ReleaseGlobal Country Forecast - Baseline
SourceMoody's Analytics (ECCA)
FrequencyMonthly
GeographyWorld
Upcoming
Release DateReference date
10 Sep 2019Sep 2019