The November 2018 forecast vintage contained an incorrect unemployment rate forecast for Texas. The short-term decline was too large, driving an overly optimistic outlook for household survey variables; specifically, the unemployment rate, household employment, and number of unemployed residents were misstated. State forecasts were reposted with a corrected Texas forecast at approximately 3:30 p.m.

Please note that this change had a slight downstream impact on other series, but those changes were generally trivial. Still, we would advise all clients who rely on the Texas baseline forecast to use the corrected forecasts for all series in order to ensure consistency across forecasts.

Downstream forecasts, including those for Texas metro areas, and forecasts for other states were not affected by this adjustment.