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Forecast Note: Cross-country - Data inputs to global macro model [Sep 2019]
Monday, 09 Sep 2019 16:46 ET
By Richard Cross
Summary
September 2019 -- For the September vintage of the Moody's Analytics global macro model, a summary of revisions to its historical inputs, our choice of inputs, and related amendments (21 countries impacted, plus relevant regional aggregates).
Detail

Changes to model inputs

Inputs to the Moody's Analytics forecast models encompass both historical verbatim datasets and Moody's Analytics historical estimates. Changes originate at the source (revision or redefinition), our choice of inputs (source entity, specific indicator, or variant of an indicator), and our pre-processing of inputs (frequency conversion, etc.).

We may construct estimates as an interim solution when a source does not report in a convenient analytic form, but always prefer to use a source verbatim. A change from a cross-national source to a national source improves timeliness, transparency and consistency, unless otherwise noted.

In the table below, when a country name is marked (*), the change flows from a single country into relevant regional aggregates. The abbreviations "NCB" and "NSI" refer to the national central bank and national statistical institute of each country, respectively. The abbreviation "n.o.s." means "not otherwise stated".

Changes to methodology

For multinational stock price indexes (for example, FSTOCKPQ.IWRLD), we have inserted a step to convert each component national index to USD terms, prior to aggregation.

Changes to mnemonics

None.

Changes to metadata 

See summary table for specifics.

  • Source citation on:
    • India government finance (revenue, expenditure, balance, debt, etc.)

Summary table

CountryVariableCommentRevision noteForecast mnemonic(s) (count)
Argentina Gross debt of general government Corrected adjustment from SAAR to NSA.   FGGDEBTLQ.IARG
Australia Gross debt of general government Corrected adjustment from SAAR to NSA.   FGGDEBTLQ.IAUS
Brazil Gross debt of general government Corrected adjustment from SAAR to NSA.   FGGDEBTLQ.IBRA
Canada Family income Improved estimation method. See estimate.   FYFMMED(,$)Q.ICAN (2)
Chile Gross debt of general government Corrected adjustment from SAAR to NSA.   FGGDEBTLQ.ICHL
China Gross debt of general government Corrected adjustment from SAAR to NSA.   FGGDEBTLQ.ICHN
Estonia National accounts Re-referenced from 2010 to 2015. Entire  
Germany National accounts Re-referenced from 2010 to 2015. See estimate.    
Germany National accounts Five-year revision. Entire  
India Government finance Corrected metadata (citation, from CSO to MOSPI). See historical.   FGG?Q.IIND (7)
India Government finance Corrected frequency conversion technique. Frame shift of 4 quarters forward  
India Gross debt of general government Corrected adjustment from SAAR to NSA.   FGGDEBTLQ.IIND
Indonesia Gross debt of general government Corrected adjustment from SAAR to NSA.   FGGDEBTLQ.IIDN
Ireland House price Change in benchmark series used for underlying estimate. Substantial FHPLQ.IIRL
Japan Gross debt of general government Corrected adjustment from SAAR to NSA.   FGGDEBTLQ.IJPN
Laos Lending rate Changed source from IMF to NCB. See historical.   FRLENDQ.ILAO
New Zealand Gross debt of general government Corrected adjustment from SAAR to NSA.   FGGDEBTLQ.INZL
Norway National accounts Re-referenced from 2016 to 2017. See historical. See estimate. Entire  
Oman Monetary policy rate Changed from discount rate to CBO repo rate.    
Philippines GDP Changed SA method. See historical.   FGDPLQ.IPHL
Thailand Gross debt of general government Corrected adjustment from SAAR to NSA.   FGGDEBTLQ.ITHA
U.S. Banking Changed source from as-reported (FRB) to break-adjusted (Moody's Analytics). See historical.   FBB?Q.IUSA (8)
U.S. Consumer confidence Extended history. Via improved frequency conversion, improved start date from 1967Q1 to 1977Q3. 1967 to 1977 FCBC.IUSA
U.S. Construction put in place Revision. Substantial  
U.S. Housing affordability Changed source from HXAFFM.IUSA to HXAFFFM.IUSA. See historical.   FHXAFF.IUSA
Venezuela Monetary policy rate Changed source from IMF to NCB, to improve timeliness. None FRMPOLQ.IVEN
Vietnam Exchange rate Changed source from IMF to World Bank, for recent history. From 2007 FTFXIUSAQ.IVNM
Middle East and Africa Real wages Aggregate now includes Oman.   FYPEWSI$Q.IMEAF
World excl. U.S. Real wages Aggregate now includes Oman.   FYPEWSI$Q.IWXUS
World Real wages Aggregate now includes Oman.   FYPEWSI$Q.IWRLD

See also

Forecasts:

Historical and estimates not linked above:

  • None

Background and terminology:

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