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Forecast Note: Cross-country - Data inputs to Global Macro Model [Nov 2019]
Friday, 08 Nov 2019 14:56 ET
By Richard Cross
Summary
November 2019 -- For the November vintage of the Moody's Analytics "Global Macro Model", a summary of revisions to its historical inputs, our choice of inputs, and related amendments (29 countries impacted, plus relevant regional aggregates).
Detail

Changes to model inputs

Inputs to the Moody's Analytics forecast models encompass both historical verbatim datasets and Moody's Analytics historical estimates. Changes originate at the source (revision or redefinition), our choice of inputs (source entity, specific indicator, or variant of an indicator), and our pre-processing of inputs (frequency conversion, seasonal adjustment, etc.).

We may construct estimates as an interim solution when a source does not report in a convenient analytic form, but always prefer to use a source verbatim. A change from a cross-national source to a national source improves timeliness, transparency and consistency, unless otherwise noted.

In the table below, when a country name is marked (*), the change flows from a single country into relevant regional aggregates.

Changes to mnemonics

None.

Changes to metadata

None.

Summary table

CountryVariableCommentRevised interval if not entire seriesForecast mnemonic(s)
Argentina Employee compensation Upward revision and more history, because now benchmarked to quarterly compensation from national source.   FYPEWS?Q.IARG
Belgium Household income Revised.   FYPDLQ.IBEL
FYPDL$Q.IBEL
FYPDPCL$Q.IBEL
Canada Population New projections.    
Croatia General government interest expense Seasonal factor revisions.    
Croatia General government operations Seasonal factor revisions.    
Cyprus Household income Revised.   FYPDLQ.ICYP
FYPDL$Q.ICYP
FYPDPCL$Q.ICYP
Denmark (*) LFS Changed methodology.    
Finland Household income Revised.   FYPDLQ.IFIN
FYPDL$Q.IFIN
FYPDPCL$Q.IFIN
Germany General government interest expense Seasonal factor revisions.    
Greece (*) IPI Rebased from 2010 to 2015. See historical.   FIPQ.IGRC
Hong Kong (*) IPI Rebased from 2008 to 2015. See historical.   FIPQ.IHKG
Hong Kong (*) PPI Rebased from 2008 to 2015. See historical.   FPPIQ.IHKG
Hungary Employment by industry Revised.    
Hungary General government operations Revised.    
Hungary Household income Revised.   FYPDLQ.IHUN
FYPDL$Q.IHUN
FYPDPCL$Q.IHUN
Ireland Employment by industry Clarification from Eurostat re: series breaks.    
Italy General government debt Revised upward.   FGGDEBTLQ.IITA
Laos General government debt Revised.    
Laos General government operations Revised.    
Lithuania Household income Revised.   FYPDLQ.ILTU
FYPDL$Q.ILTU
FYPDPCL$Q.ILTU
Luxembourg Household income Revised.   FYPDLQ.ILUX
FYPDL$Q.ILUX
FYPDPCL$Q.ILUX
Luxembourg (*) National accounts Annual revision. From 2015  
Malaysia GVA by industry Revised. See estimate.    
Malaysia (*) Retail sales Rebased from 2010 to 2015. See historical.   FRTSALESIQ.IMYS
FRTSALESI$Q.IMYS
Mexico (*) PPI Rebased from 2012 to 2019. See historical.   FPPIQ.IMEX
Mexico Vehicle sales Seasonal factor revisions.   FRVEHLQ.IMEX
Myanmar General government debt Revised.    
Myanmar General government operations Revised.    
Nigeria (*) Unemployment rate More history.   FLBRQ.INGA
Philippines Employee compensation Changed source from UN to national. See historical.   FYPEWS?Q.IPHL
Poland GVA by industry Revised.    
Portugal BOP current account balance Seasonal factor revisions.   FTABLQ.IPRT
FTABDQ.IPRT
Portugal General government debt Revised upward.   FGGDEBTLQ.IPRT
Romania Employment by industry New CDASA data, improved break adjustment.    
Romania Household income Revised downward.   FYPDLQ.IROU
FYPDL$Q.IROU
FYPDPCL$Q.IROU
Slovakia General government operations Revised.    
South Korea Employee compensation Revised. See historical.   FYPEWS?Q.IKOR
South Korea Household income Revised. See historical. See estimate.   FYPDLQ.IKOR
FYPDL$Q.IKOR
FYPDPCL$Q.IKOR
Spain Household income Revised.   FYPDLQ.IESP
FYPDL$Q.IESP
FYPDPCL$Q.IESP
Spain (*) National accounts Benchmark revision.    
Sweden GVA by industry Benchmark revision. See historical.    
Sweden Household income Revised. See historical.   FYPDLQ.ISWE
FYPDL$Q.ISWE
FYPDPCL$Q.ISWE
U.K. Employment by industry Revised.    
U.K. General government operations Revised.    
U.K. (*) IPI Changed methodology.   FIPQ.IGBR

See also

Forecasts:

Historical and estimates not linked above:

  • None

Background and terminology:

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