The equations for both revolving and nonrevolving credit have been respecified as of the October update. Previously, the forecasts had been specified based on the log of the ratio of outstanding credit to total income for each state and the U.S.

The new equation uses a differenced log (dlog) specification instead. This results in a smoother transition from the end of the historical period to the first forecast quarter, while also ensuring that consumer credit as a share of income aligns more closely with the corresponding U.S. ratio.

This adjustment has downstream impacts on total consumer credit, as well as the debt-to-income ratio. Note that even though outstanding credit is a driver of refinance mortgage originations, those forecasts have been preserved at levels close to the prior vintage.

These changes will also flow into the state alternative scenario forecasts.