Question
How can I determine which forecast scenarios are available from Data Buffet, for the U.S. and for other countries? (Updated July 31, 2017.)
Answer
Each month, Moody's Analytics generates economic forecasts, running our macroeconomic models with recent historical data. Forecasting involves assumptions, and to better capture the breadth of possible futures, we generate alternative forecasts using a range of plausible assumptions. We call these scenarios. Every run of the model has a vintage date. Corresponding series across scenarios have concept codes that are differentiated by a suffix.
1. Available scenarios are presented to you when you browse the forecast catalog, via the lower half of the Geography Wizard dialog. Each scenario is listed with its vintage date.
Scenarios updated monthly ("the standard scenarios"), as of July 2017:
- Current baseline (no concept code suffix), which we refresh first
- Scenario-consistent baseline (_B), which is equal to the baseline but synchronized with the alternatives, which we refresh slightly later
- Standard alternatives (_S1 to _S8)
- Constant severity (_CS)
- Consensus (_CF, formerly _SC)
Scenarios updated once a year:
- Fed CCAR 2017 original, Jan. 2017 (baseline, adverse, severely adverse) (_FEDB, _FEDM, _FEDS)
- Fed CCAR 2017 midcycle update, Jun. 2017 (_FEDBMC, _FEDMMC, _FEDSMC) (see related article)
- Fed CCAR 2016 (see related article) and midcycle update (see related article)
- Fed CCAR 2015 (see related article)
- Fed CCAR 2014, Nov. 2014 (see related article)
- Fed CCAR 2013 (see related article)
- Fed baseline and supervisory stress test, Nov. 2011 (_FEDBASE and _FEDSS)
Special scenarios:
- Trump Baseline, Lite and Unplugged, Nov. 2016 (_DT1612B, _DT1612L, _DT1612U) (see related article)
- Brexit suite, Jul. 2016: Baseline, EU partial fracture, euro zone crack-up, reject Brexit, UK splintering (_BREXITBL, _BREXITEURFR, _BREXITEZCR, _BREXITREJ, _BREXITUKSP)
- NIPA benchmark revision, Aug. 2013 (_NBR) (see related article)
- Fiscal cliff, Aug. 2012 (_CLIFF and _NOCLIFF)
- Oil shock, Apr. 2011 (_O1 and _O2)
2. The assumptions of each scenario are explained in scenario narrative documents, accessible from the geo wizard (the hyperlink to [View Assumptions] which opens a second dialog box) and the reference files.
3. As of July 2017, narratives under DataBuffet.com » menu:Reference Files » Scenario Descriptions appear with these names and in this order:
- Scenario Descriptions - Brexit, Jul. 2016
- Scenario Descriptions - United States (describing _B, _S1 to _S8, _CF), Jul. 2017
- Scenario Descriptions - United States Fed CCAR (_FEDB, _FEDM, _FEDS), Feb. 2017
- Scenario Descriptions - United States Fiscal Cliff (_CLIFF and _NOCLIFF), Dec. 2012
- Scenario Descriptions - United States NIPA Benchmark Revision 2013 (_NBR), Aug. 2013
- Scenario Descriptions - United States Oil Shock (_O1 and _O2), May 2011
- Scenario Descriptions - United States Constant Severity Scenario (_CS), Jul. 2017
- Scenario Descriptions - United States Fed Baseline (_FEDBASE), Dec. 2011
- Scenario Descriptions - United States Fed Supervisory Stress Test (_FEDSS), Dec. 2011
- The Trump Economy, Nov. 2016
We update (i.e., run the model for) the standard scenarios (_B, _S1 to _S8, _CS, _CF) each month, but the other scenarios pertain to special topics or circumstances and are run less often or just once (as noted by the vintage dates in the Geography Wizard and individual series descriptions). The major assumptions are applicable to our U.S. macro model and, unless otherwise noted, to every model and scenario which derives from it.
4. We maintain a separate set of narratives for our Global National Forecasts. This product includes over 40 countries. From time to time we add narratives, which as of July 2017 consist of:
- Regions (seven): Asia, Europe, central and eastern Europe, euro zone, global, Scandinavia, South America
- Individual countries (26): Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Cyprus, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Philippines, Russia, Singapore, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Taiwan, Thailand, United Kingdom
Updates
- Oct. 5, 2012
- Nov. 23, 2015
- May 26, 2016
- Jun. 29, 2016 - CCAR 2016 midcycle update. Consensus suffix changed from _SC to _CF
- Jul. 31, 2017 - CCAR 2017 original and midcycle, Trump, Brexit, reference files
Related Releases
CoreLogic Case-Shiller House Price Index Forecast
Global Country Forecast - Baseline
U.S. Forecast - Baseline
U.S. MSA Forecast
U.S. State Forecast