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TitleAvailability: Data Buffet - Forecast scenarios [UPDATED]
AuthorPhillip Thorne
Question

How can I determine which forecast scenarios are available from Data Buffet, for the U.S. and for other countries? [Updated June 29, 2016.]

Answer

Each month, Moody's Analytics generates economic forecasts, running our macroeconomic models with the latest historical data. Forecasting involves assumptions, and to better capture the breadth of possible futures, we generate alternative forecasts using a range of plausible assumptions. We call these scenarios. Every run of the model has a vintage date. Corresponding series across scenarios have concept codes that are differentiated by a suffix.

1. Available scenarios are presented to you when you browse the forecast catalog, via the lower half of the Geography Wizard dialog. Each scenario is listed with its vintage date.

As of June 2016, there are 12 actively-updated scenarios, in these groups:

  • Current baseline (no concept code suffix)
  • Scenario-consistent baseline (_B), which is equal to the baseline but synchronized with the alternatives
  • Standard alternatives (_S1 to _S8)
  • Constant severity (_CS)
  • Consensus (_CF, formerly _SC)

Still available, but frozen:

Previously:

2. The assumptions of each scenario are explained in scenario narrative documents, accessible from the Geography Wizard (the hyperlink to [View Assumptions] which opens a second dialog box) and the reference files.

3. As of May 2016, narratives under DataBuffet.com » menu:Reference Files » Scenario Descriptions appear with these names:

  • Scenario Descriptions - United States (describing _B, _S1 to _S8, _CF), Jun. 2016
  • Scenario Descriptions - United States Fed CCAR (_FEDB, _FEDM, _FEDS), Feb. 2016
  • Scenario Descriptions - United States Fiscal Cliff (_CLIFF and _NOCLIFF)
  • Scenario Descriptions - United States NIPA Benchmark Revision 2013 (_NBR), Aug. 2013
  • Scenario Descriptions - United States Oil Shock (_O1 and _O2), May 2011
  • Scenario Descriptions - United States Constant Severity Scenario (_CS), Dec. 2015
  • Scenario Descriptions - United States Fed Baseline (_FEDBASE), Nov. 2011
  • Scenario Descriptions - United States Fed Supervisory Stress Test (_FEDSS), Nov. 2011

We update (i.e., run the model for) the standard scenarios (_B, _S1 to _S8, _CS, _CF) each month, but the other scenarios pertain to special topics or circumstances and are run less often (as noted by the vintage dates in the Geography Wizard and individual series descriptions). The major assumptions are applicable to our U.S. macro model and, unless otherwise noted, to every model and scenario which derives from it.

4. We maintain a separate set of narratives for our Global National Forecasts. This product includes over 40 countries. From time to time we add narratives, which as of May 2016 consist of:

  • Regions (seven): Asia, Europe, central and eastern Europe, euro zone, global, Scandinavia, South America
  • Individual countries (25): Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Philippines, Russia, Singapore, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Taiwan, Thailand, United Kingdom

Updates

  • Oct. 5, 2012
  • Nov. 23, 2015
  • May 26, 2016
  • Jun. 29, 2016 - CCAR 2016 midcycle update. Consensus suffix changed from _SC to _CF.


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