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To ensure the highest quality forecasts, Moody's Analytics periodically revises our forecast methodology for selected variables. The attached documents describe these changes in detail, with overview (for example, what changed and why), revised equation specifications, and implications for other parts of our forecast. Equation specifications may also appear in Mnemonic 411.
The impacted baseline series are the following. The corresponding alternative scenarios are similarly affected.
Respecified
- FSMTROQ.IUSA = Lodging: Total - Occupancy, (%, NSA)
- FRTINETQ.IUSA = Retail E-Commerce Sales, (Bil. USD, SAAR)
- FMUVIM.IUSA = Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, (Index Jan1995=100, SA)
Additionally, Moody's Analytics has added a forecast for total capacity utilization. The equation specification and further details are attached.
- FCUQ.IUSA = Capacity Utilization: Total index, (%, SA)
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