To ensure the highest-quality forecasts, Moody's Analytics periodically revises its forecast methodology for selected variables. The attached documents describe these changes in detail, with an overview (for example, what changed and why), previous equation specifications, and new equation specifications. New equation specifications will appear in Mnemonic 411.
Respecified:
FXSLAWINQ.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Increased willingness to make - Consumer installment loans - Net percentage of banks, (%, NSA)
FBQCRNCOLLQ.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): FDIC commercial banks: Performance Ratios - Net charge-offs to loans and leases, (% YTD, NSAAR)
FBCFCOFCCQ.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Charge Off Rates: All Commercial Banks - Credit Card Consumer Loans, (%, SAAR)
FXSLASINCCQ.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Tightening standards - For credit card loans - Net percentage of banks, (%, NSA)
FBCFDELLCCQ.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Delinquency Rates: Top 100 Commercial Banks - Credit Card Consumer Loans, (%, SA)
FLBT.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Labor Force Participation Rate: Working-Age Population, (%, SA)
FXCPFCCUQ.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Upland Cotton Price, (USD per lb, NSA)
FYPDIVQ.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Income: Personal - Dividend, (Bil. USD, SAAR)
FYPOINTQ.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Income: Personal Interest Payments, (Bil. USD, SAAR)
FZPAVN.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): NIPA: Profits after Tax - Dividends, (Bil. USD, SAAR)
FSP500Q.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): S&P 500 Composite: Price Index - Average, (Index 1941-43=10, NSA)
FIFNESI$.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): NIPA: Fixed Investment - Industrial Equipment, (Bil. Ch. 2012 USD, SAAR)
FCNOTH$.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): NIPA: Personal Consumption Expenditures - Other nondurable goods, (Bil. Ch. 2012 USD, SAAR)
FIFNESOT$.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): NIPA: Fixed Investment - Nonresidential - Other, (Bil. Ch. 2012 USD, SAAR)
FCS$.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): NIPA: Personal Consumption Expenditures - Services, (Bil. Ch. 2012 USD, SAAR)
FIFNESTR$.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): NIPA: Fixed Investment - Transportation and Related Equipment, (Bil. Ch. 2012 USD, SAAR)
FCDFHE$.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): NIPA: Personal Consumption Expenditures - Furnishings and durable household equipment, (Bil. Ch. 2012 USD, SAAR)
FCSREC$.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): NIPA: Personal Consumption Expenditures - Recreation services, (Bil. Ch. 2012 USD, SAAR)
FCSTRS$.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): NIPA: Personal Consumption Expenditures - Transportation services, (Bil. Ch. 2012 USD, SAAR)
FCDOTH$.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): NIPA: Personal Consumption Expenditures - Other durable goods, (Bil. Ch. 2012 USD, SAAR)
FZFL155035015Q.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Balance Sheet of Households and Nonprofit Organizations: Assets - Real Estate Assets of Households, (Bil. USD, SA)
FCDREC$.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): NIPA: Personal Consumption Expenditures - Recreational goods and vehicles, (Bil. Ch. 2012 USD, SAAR)
FZFL152010005Q.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Balance Sheet of Households and Nonprofit Organizations: Assets - Tangible Assets, (Bil. USD, SA)
FCDXMVP$.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): NIPA: Personal Consumption Expenditures - Durable Goods excluding Motor Vehicles, (Bil. Ch. 2012 USD, SAAR)
FCBC.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Confidence Index, (Index 1985=100, SA)
Re-estimated:
FNCREIFPIRQ.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): NCREIF Property Index: Rates of Return, (%, NSA)
FPDIIFRSMF.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): NIPA: Implicit Price Deflator - Fixed Investment - Residential - Structures - Multifamily, (Index 2012=100, SA)
FHPNM.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Permits: Residential - Multifamily, (Mil. #, SAAR)
FZFL075035503Q.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Flow of Funds: Commercial real estate price index, (Index, SA)
FCN$.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): NIPA: Personal Consumption Expenditures - Nondurable goods, (Bil. Ch. 2012 USD, SAAR)
FCNFAB$_I.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): NIPA: Personal Consumption Expenditures - Food and beverages purchased for off-premises consumption [Interim Variable], (Bil. Ch. 2012 USD, SAAR)
FIFRSOT$.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): NIPA: Fixed Investment - Residential Structures - Other, (Bil. Ch. 2012 USD, SAAR)
Added:
FCPPAPTIQ.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Real estate: Commercial Property Price Index [CPPI] - Apartment, (Index 2002Q4=100, NSA)
FCPPINDIQ.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Real estate: Commercial Property Price Index [CPPI] - Industrial, (Index 2002Q4=100, NSA)
FCPPOFFIQ.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Real estate: Commercial Property Price Index [CPPI] - Office, (Index 2002Q4=100, NSA)
FCPPRETIQ.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Real estate: Commercial Property Price Index [CPPI]- Retail, (Index 2002Q4=100, NSA)
FCPPCOMIQ.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Real estate: Commercial Property Price Index [CPPI] - Commercial, (Index 2002Q4=100, NSA)
FCPPIQ.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Real estate: Commercial Property Price Index [CPPI] - Total, (Index 2002Q4=100, NSA)
FCCDAU30.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: Automobile - Delinquencies - 30 days past due - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)
FCCDAU60.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: Automobile - Delinquencies - 60 days past due - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)
FCCDAU90.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: Automobile - Delinquencies - 90 days past due - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)
FCCDAU120.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: Automobile - Delinquencies - 120 days past due - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)
FCCDBC30.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: Bank Card - Delinquencies - 30 days past due - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)
FCCDBC60.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: Bank Card - Delinquencies - 60 days past due - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)
FCCDBC90.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: Bank Card - Delinquencies - 90 days past due - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)
FCCDBC120.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: Bank Card - Delinquencies - 120 days past due - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)
FCCDCF30.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: Consumer Finance - Delinquencies - 30 days past due - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)
FCCDCF60.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: Consumer Finance - Delinquencies - 60 days past due - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)
FCCDCF90.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: Consumer Finance - Delinquencies - 90 days past due - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)
FCCDRE30.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: Home Equity - Delinquencies - 30 days past due - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)
FCCDRE60.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: Home Equity - Delinquencies - 60 days past due - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)
FCCDRE90.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: Home Equity - Delinquencies - 90 days past due - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)
FCCDRE120.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: Home Equity - Delinquencies - 120 days past due - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)
FCCDRF30.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: First Mortgage - Delinquencies - 30 days past due - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)
FCCDRF60.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: First Mortgage - Delinquencies - 60 days past due - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)
FCCDRF90.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: First Mortgage - Delinquencies - 90 days past due - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)
FCCDRF120.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: First Mortgage - Delinquencies - 120 days past due - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)
FCCDRT30.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: Retail Credit - Delinquencies - 30 days past due - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)
FCCDRT60.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: Retail Credit - Delinquencies - 60 days past due - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)
FCCDRT90.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: Retail Credit - Delinquencies - 90 days past due - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)
FCCDCF120.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: Consumer Finance - Delinquencies - 120 days past due - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)
FCCDOT30.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: Other - Delinquencies - 30 days past due - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)
FCCDOT60.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: Other - Delinquencies - 60 days past due - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)
FCCDOT90.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: Other - Delinquencies - 90 days past due - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)
FCCDOT120.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: Other - Delinquencies - 120 days past due - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)
FCCDRA30_I.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: Residential Total - Delinquencies - 30 days past due - Share of $ volume [Intermediate term], (%, SA)
FCCDRA30.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: Residential Total - Delinquencies - 30 days past due - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)
FCCDRA60.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: Residential Total - Delinquencies - 60 days past due - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)
FCCDRA90.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: Residential Total - Delinquencies - 90 days past due - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)
FCCDRA120.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: Residential Total - Delinquencies - 120 days past due - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)
FCCDRT120.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: Retail Credit - Delinquencies - 120 days past due - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)
FCCDSL30.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: Student Loan - Delinquencies - 30 days past due - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)
FCCDSL60.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: Student Loan - Delinquencies - 60 days past due - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)
FCCDSL90.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: Student Loan - Delinquencies - 90 days past due - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)
FCCDSL120.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: Student Loan - Delinquencies - 120 days past due - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)
FCCDTO30_I.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: Total - Delinquencies - 30 days past due - Share of $ volume [Intermediate term], (%, SA)
FCCDTO30.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: Total - Delinquencies - 30 days past due - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)
FCCDTO60.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: Total - Delinquencies - 60 days past due - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)
FCCDTO90.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: Total - Delinquencies - 90 days past due - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)
FCCDTO120.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: Total - Delinquencies - 120 days past due - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)
FCCDAU.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: Automobile - Delinquencies - Total - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)
FCCDBC.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: Bank Card - Delinquencies - Total - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)
FCCDCF.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: Consumer Finance - Delinquencies - Total - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)
FCCDOT.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: Other - Delinquencies - Total - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)
FCCDRA.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: Residential Total - Delinquencies - Total - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)
FCCDRE.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: Home Equity - Delinquencies - Total - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)
FCCDRF.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: First Mortgage - Delinquencies - Total - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)
FCCDRT.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: Retail Credit - Delinquencies - Total - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)
FCCDSL.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: Student Loan - Delinquencies - Total - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)
FCCDTO.IUSA = Baseline Scenario (October 2019): Consumer Credit: Total - Delinquencies - Total - Share of $ volume, (%, SA)