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Forecast Note: Cross-country - Data inputs to global macro model [Apr 2019]
Friday, 09 Aug 2019 11:44 ET
By Richard Cross
Summary
April 2019 -- A summary of changes to historical datasets that will be integrated into the April vintage of the Moody's Analytics global macro model, and the impact thereon (six countries impacted, plus geo-composites).
Detail

Changes to model inputs

Inputs to the Moody's Analytics forecast models encompass both historical verbatim datasets and Moody's Analytics historical estimates. Changes include our choice of source entity, source series, redefinition of a series by its source, or revision of a series that is otherwise unchanged.

When a country name is marked (*), the change flows into relevant regional aggregates.

Changes to forecast mnemonics

None.

Changes to forecast metadata

None.

Summary table

CountryVariableCommentRevised intervalForecast mnemonic
Australia Commodities price index Driver (PCITXNCUUM.IAUS) rebased from FY 2017 to FY 2018. See historical.   FCOMMPQ.IAUS
Chile IGPA stock market index Corrected by source. From 2012 FSTOCKPQ.ICHL
Colombia IPI Rebased from 2008 to 2018. See historical.   FIPQ.ICOL
Ireland Average weekly earnings SA Changed source from NSA to SA.   FAWELQ.IIRL
Ireland Average weekly earnings NSA New series.   FAWELUQ.IIRL
Spain Retail sales Changed source from Eurostat to INE.   FRTSALESLQ.IESP
Spain (*) Real retail sales ibid   FRTSALESL$Q.IESP
Euro zone Real retail sales ibid   FRTSALESL$Q.IEUZN
U.S. Per capita income Changed population source from BOC to BEA NIPA for consistency with per capita disposable income.   FYPCPIQ.IUSA
U.S. Real per capita income ibid   FYPCPI$Q.IUSA
Major Seven Retail sales index Replaced consumption deflator with BEA retail sales (FRTFS$.IUSA).   FRTSALESI$Q.IMAJ7
North America Retail sales index ibid   FRTSALESI$Q.INAMR
OECD countries Retail sales index ibid   FRTSALESI$Q.IOECD
World Retail sales index ibid   FRTSALESI$Q.IWRLD

See also

Forecasts:

Historical:

Updates

  • 10 Apr - Initial version
  • 9 Aug - URL syntax corrected
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