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To ensure the highest-quality forecasts, Moody's Analytics periodically revises our forecast methodology for selected variables. The attached documents describe these changes in detail, with overview (for example, what changed and why), revised equation specifications, and implications for other parts of our forecast. Equation specifications may also appear in Mnemonic 411.
The affected baseline series are as follows. The corresponding alternative scenarios are similarly affected.
Respecified
- FIRHYBOASQ = High-Yield Bonds: Option Adjusted Spread, (% pts., NSA)
Additionally, the April vintage includes a new forecast for several federal fiscal series, which have been adjusted in accordance with new assumptions. More information on the new federal fiscal assumptions can be found in the attached PDF and in this Economy.com article.
The forecasts for the following Investment Company Institute series have been removed in the April vintage. Moody’s Analytics will no longer offer a forecast for these series.
· FICIFBI = Mutual Funds: Net New Cash Flow - Bond and Income Mutual Funds, (Mil. USD, SA)
· FICIFMM = Mutual Funds: Net New Cash Flow - Money Market Funds, (Mil. USD, SA)
· FICIFSM = Mutual Funds: Net New Cash Flow - Stock Mutual Funds, (Mil. USD, SA)
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