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Forecast Changes: Cross-Country - Global macro model [September 2019]
Wednesday, 11 Sep 2019 10:23 ET
By Brittany Merollo
Summary
September 2019 – As a part of the September vintage of the Moody's Analytics global macro forecasts, numerous model equations were revised. Monthly diagnostic testing led to adjustments of several hundred equations in September. The most notable equation changes are in the government blocks, euro zone interest rates, and European house prices.
Detail

Summaries of the concepts changed in the baseline forecast follow. The attached document provides details of the equation respecifications for existing series. The corresponding alternative scenarios are similarly affected.

Equation changes 

•National accounts rebasings (Germany, Norway, Estonia) 

•New historical/forecast series for Laos lending rate 

•Adjustments made to government blocks to ensure greater consistency between government debt and government balance (all countries)

•New equations for European house prices to create more significant shocks in scenarios by using FHPI_I_IEUZN as a key driver 

•Euro zone interest rates adjusted to keep greater consistency with German rates 

Other
Related ReleaseGlobal Country Forecast - Baseline
SourceMoody's Analytics (ECCA)
FrequencyMonthly
GeographyWorld
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Related ReleaseGlobal Country Forecast - Scenarios
SourceMoody's Analytics (ECCA)
FrequencyMonthly
GeographyWorld
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Release DateReference date
14 May 2024May 2024
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Attachments