Moody’s Analytics is committed to providing clients with the Federal Reserve Board’s Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review scenarios built out across a number of forecast products in the most timely fashion possible. Moody’s Analytics made the U.S. forecast of the CCAR 2017 scenarios available three calendar days after the Fed’s release on February 3. We released the global forecasts five days following the Fed’s release, and the U.S. state and metro scenario forecasts were made available seven days following the release.

However, Moody’s Analytics and a number of clients identified a data error with the BBB Corporate yield.  As a result, on February 10, the Fed released corrected scenarios. Moody’s Analytics reran the scenarios with the corrected assumptions. We were able to shave some time off the release dates in the second iteration. The U.S. forecast was released in two days, on February 12, the U.S. state and metro forecasts were reposted a day later, and the country scenarios were released in four days, on February 14.

Moody’s Analytics plans to provide the build-outs of the CCAR 2018 scenarios at a more accelerated pace than the CCAR 2017 scenarios. The forecasts’ databases will be posted according to the following schedule. 

Day 0 – Fed releases CCAR scenarios
Day 2 – U.S. macro (USFOR)
Day 4 – U.S. states (STFOR)
Day 4.5 – Global macro (WDFOR)
Day 6 – Global financial (WDFIN)
Day 6 – U.S. metro areas (MSFOR)
Day 6 – Call report forecasts (CRF)
Day 7 – Case-Shiller house price indexes (CSWFOR)
Day 8 – Credit forecast (CF.com)
Day 9 – AutoCycle
 
This timeline could be adjusted if the Fed releases more than three scenarios or if an error entails a revised Fed release, as in 2017.
 
This year, the mid-cycle scenarios will be published in June according to the following schedule:

June 21 – U.S. macro (USFOR)
June 23 – U.S. states (STFOR)
June 25 – Credit forecast (CF.com)
June 26 – Global macro (WDFOR)
June 27 – U.S. metro areas (MSFOR)
June 27 – Call report forecasts (CRF)
June 28 – Case-Shiller house price indexes (CSWFOR)
June 29 – AutoCycle
June 30 – Global financial (WDFIN)

We also plan to rerun the CCAR scenarios on a quarterly basis: in February, April, June and October.