Timeline
We will publish our regulatory scenarios for the following databases or services as follows (counting in calendar days, EOD unless otherwise noted, times Eastern). We will add specific dates to this table when the CCAR 2019 supervisory scenarios are published by the Federal Reserve Board. Be advised that this timeline may change if FRB issues corrections.
Day | Target | Product | Status | Day/time |
0 |
5 Feb |
FRB releases its CCAR supervisory scenarios |
Released |
5 Feb 4:30 pm ET |
2 |
7 Feb |
U.S. macro forecast (Q) |
Released |
7 Feb 3:10 pm |
2 |
" |
U.S. macro forecast (M) |
Released |
7 Feb 3:10 pm |
2 |
" |
U.S. macro forecast in Scenario Studio |
Released |
7 Feb 3:50 pm |
2 |
" |
U.S. eModel |
Released |
7 Feb 3:50 pm |
4 |
9 Feb |
U.S. state forecast |
Released |
8 Feb 4:20 pm |
4 |
" |
U.S. narratives |
Released |
11 Feb 11:10 am |
4.5 |
10 Feb noon |
Global macro forecast |
Released |
9 Feb 11:40 pm |
5 |
10 Feb |
Global macro forecast in Scenario Studio |
Released |
10 Feb 12:30 am |
5 |
" |
Global financial markets database |
Released |
10 Feb 2:00 pm |
6 |
11 Feb |
U.S. metro area forecast |
Released |
10 Feb 4:20 pm |
6 |
" |
Bank call report forecasts |
Released |
8 Feb 5:30 pm |
7 |
12 Feb |
Case-Shiller® Home Price Index Forecast |
Released |
12 Feb 9:20 am |
8 |
13 Feb |
CreditForecast.com |
Released |
12 Feb 4:40 pm |
9 |
14 Feb |
AutoCycle |
Released |
12 Feb 5:00 pm |
The Moody’s Analytics regulatory scenarios are an add-on product; for details, please contact your sales representative.
The scenario narratives are available in the "Reference Files" section of Data Buffet, and through the forecast catalog Geo Wizard.
Background
The U.S. Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010 stipulates that the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (“FRB”) shall conduct an annual Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (“CCAR”) in which certain banks evaluate their forward-looking capital planning processing to account for unique risks and to ensure they have adequate capital to continue operations during periods of economic and financial stress (that is, “perform stress tests”).
As part of this exercise, FRB publishes three “supervisory scenarios,” each consisting of some 30 time series with history and a short future horizon. These constitute a snapshot (dataset 1), and Data Buffet stores them separately from the “live” series actively updated by respective sources (dataset 2). Our “regulatory scenarios” (dataset 3) use the FRB data as assumptions, and are distinct from our “standard” monthly scenarios (dataset 4). For each of these four datasets, the purpose, concept codes, update schedule and pricing are separate. Please see the "CCAR historical reconciliation" white paper (linked below) for an explanation of the differences.
References
See also
CCAR 2019
Background
Previous years
Updates to this article
- 26 Oct 2018 - Initial version of this article
- 5 Feb 2019, 5:30 pm - FRB released CCAR supervisory scenarios at 4:30 pm
- 7 Feb - Target day 2 items published; CCAR historical reconciliation white paper
- 8 Feb - U.S. state, bank call reports forecast
- 10 Feb - Global macro, global macro in Scenario Studio, global financial markets, U.S. metro
- 12 Feb - Narratives, Case-Shiller® Home Price Index forecast
- 15 Feb - CreditForecast.com, AutoCycle, webinar link
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