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To ensure the highest quality forecasts, Moody's Analytics periodically revises our forecast methodology for selected variables. The attached documents describe these changes in detail, with overview (for example, what changed and why), revised equation specifications, and implications for other parts of our forecast. Equation specifications may also appear in Mnemonic 411.
The impacted baseline series are as follows. The corresponding alternative scenarios are similarly affected.
Respecified
- FMOF14PQ = Mortgage Originations: 1-4 Family - Purchase (Bil. USD, SAAR)
- FMUVIM = Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (Index Jan1995=100, SA)
- FSCARD = Automobile Inventory-to-Sales Ratio (%, SA)
- FXCPMGASUQ = Motor Gasoline Prices: Unleaded (Cents per gallon, NSA)
- FXSLASCILQ = Net Percentage of Banks Tightening Standards for C&I Loans to Large and Middle-Market Firms (%, NSA)
- FZFL153165105Q = Balance Sheet of Households and Nonprofit Organizations: Liabilities - Home Mortgages, (Bil. USD, SA)
Additionally, the March vintage includes a new forecast for the U.S. labor force participation rate. The new path for participation is produced by combining forecasts of the labor force participation rate for 14 age and gender cohorts with forecasts of the civilian noninstitutional working-age population for each cohort. Changes to the forecast were minor until the mid-2020s after which the new participation forecast becomes materially lower than the prior forecast. Further details are attached.
The forecast for the Bond Buyer Index: General Obligation 20-Years to Maturity (FRBB20Q) has been removed in the March vintage. Moody’s Analytics will no longer offer a forecast for this series.
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