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Forecast Changes: International Macro Models [June 2017]
Monday, 12 Jun 2017 13:22 ET
By Paul Matsiras
Summary
June 2017 – As a part of the June vintage of the Moody's Analytics international macro forecasts, we have introduced four new concepts. Additionally, several concepts were either rebased or revised.
Detail

To ensure the highest quality forecasts, Moody's Analytics will periodically add forecasts for series for which country data become available, as well as revise them based on changes to how they are reported from their national offices. Equation specifications, as well as implications for other parts of our forecasts, may also appear in Mnemonic 411.

The added and removed baseline series are as follows. The corresponding alternative scenarios are similarly affected.

Added

  • Real and nominal disposable income for Israel (FYPDL$Q.IISR, FYPDLQ.IISR)
  • Capacity utilization for Argentina (FCUQ.IARG)
  • Bilateral GBP and JPY rates for 14 countries (FTFXIGBRQ.?, FTFXIJPNQ.?)
  • Private indebtedness for all multinational aggregates (FDCREDGDPQ.?)

Rebased

  • National accounts for Hong Kong were rebased from 2014 to 2015 (FGDPL$Q.IHKG)
  • Real retail sales in Canada were rebased (FRTSALESL$Q.ICAN)
  • PPI in India was rebased (FPPIQ.IIND)
  • Retail sales in Brazil were rebased (FRTSALESL$Q.IBRA)
  • National accounts for Sweden were rebased (FGDPL$Q.ISWE)

Revised

  • Retail sales in Canada were rescaled to be seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) (FRTSALESL$Q.ICAN)
  • Data for Egypt current accounts and government debt were improved by switching to native quarterly data from the Central Bank of Egypt (FTABLQ.IEGY, FGGDEBTLQ.IEGY)

 

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