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Motivation: Our national source, the Philippines Bureau of the Treasury (BTR), reports these indicators at a monthly frequency, but with limited history (from 2003) and with gaps (at January 2004 and all of 2005).
Response: For international consistency, Moody's Analytics has estimated the indicators at a quarterly frequency. We have extended the history and filled the gaps.
Properties: Figures are millions of Philippine pesos (Mil. PHP) at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). The series are quarterly from 1989Q1. The series reside in the historical catalog (Philippines » Government » Central government finance) and are:
- RGVLCBGBAQ.IPHL = Government finance: Central government - Budget balance, (Mil. PHP, SAAR)
- RGVLCREVAQ.IPHL = Revenue
- RGVLCEXTAQ.IPHL = Expenditure
Method
- Frequency-convert from monthly SA to quarterly SAAR: revenue and expenditure (GVLREVTTAM.IPHL and GVLEXTAM.IPHL).
- Frequency-convert annual to quarterly (technique:cubic): IMF revenue and expenditure (IMFWGGRUA.IPHL and IMFWGGXUA.IPHL).
- Infill gaps in (1) using (2).
- Backfill to 1989Q1 (1) using (2).
- Compute budget balance as an additive identity:
RGVLCBGBAQ.IPHL = RGVLCREVAQ.IPHL - RGVLCEXTAQ.IPHL
Definitions: Annualizing is a simple analytic adjustment that assumes activity in a given period will continue unchanged for a full year. For example, if government revenue for Q1 is $100, revenue AR for Q1 is $400. Exactly the same applies to seasonally adjusted values, i.e., multiply by four.
See also
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