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Forecast Note: Cross-Country - Data Inputs to global macro model [Aug 2018]
Monday, 06 Aug 2018 16:55 ET
By Richard Cross
Summary
August 2018 -- A summary of changes to historical datasets that will be integrated into the August vintage of the Moody's Analytics Global Macro Model.
Detail
Changes to historical datasets
For Austria, IPI has been rebased from 2010 to 2015.
For France, national accounts have been re-referenced from 2010 to 2014 euros.
For Ireland, PPI ("wholesale price index") has been rebased from 2010 to 2015.
For Ireland labor force statistics, CSO has replaced its survey (QHNS » LFS).
The LFS quartet (LBR, LBE, LBU, LBF) have been substantially revised.
For Lithuania, CPI has been rebased from 2010 to 2015.
For the Netherlands, national accounts have been re-referenced from 2010 to 2015 euros.
For Oman's stock price index, we have switched provider from IMF to SIX Financial.
Levels are noticeably altered.
Trends are similar.
The lag is much reduced.
For Saudi Arabia, CPI has been rebased from 2007 to 2013.
For Turkey's national accounts, we now use the SA indexes published by Turkstat rather than performing the adjustment ourselves.
Units are not changed.
Quarterly pattern is revised slightly.
We now match Turkstat's headline figures.
For the U.K., IPI has been re-referenced from 2015 to 2016.
For the U.S., NIPA has undergone its 2018 comprehensive update.
Chained measures been re-referenced from 2009 to 2012.
For chained measures, history has been truncated to 2002.
Changes to forecast mnemonics
For real and nominal USD global aggregates, we have altered the mnemonics used in Scenario Studio.
Deleted “
_D_
” from mnemonics, e.g.,
FGDP$_D_IWRLD » FGDP$_IWRLD
The change was made to facilitate viewing these aggregates in the Dashboard.
Mnemonics in prior vintages will not be changed retroactively.
See also
Data Change: Austria - IPI - Rebased to 2015
Data Change: France - QNA - Re-referenced to 2014
Data Change: Ireland - WPI - Rebased to 2015
Data Change: Lithuania - CPI - Rebased to 2015
Data Change: Netherlands - QNA - Redefined and re-referenced
Data Note: Turkey - GDP(E) and GDP(O) - CDASAAR
Data Revision: U.K. - IPI - Re-referenced to 2016
Data Change: U.S. - NIPA comprehensive update [2018]
Other
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