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TitleFAQ: CreditForecast 4.0 Vintage Observation Reconciliation
AuthorAndrew Vickrey
Question

Why do I find additional loan attrition or expansion of the vintage sample after origination that are unexplained by loans or balances in their final disposition from the prior month?

Answer

In addition to loans dropping out of a vintage pool through prepayment, account closure, default, or amortization, there is a reconciliation provided to us by Equifax for outcome “Other”, which is different from the “Other” in the category for Line of Business. The “Other” outcome, which is excluded from any calculations performed by Moody's Analytics, is a flow variable which documents loans that have dropped out of the sample for unspecified reasons. It is the number of accounts that have moved into a miscellaneous status due to a number of potential factors including consumer disputes or late/incomplete trade reporting from data contributors.

 

The data is available historically using syntax XEQ(LOB)OTH( , $)(RISK)M_(VINTAGE).(GEO). This is concept is also available in all of the downloadable data files and are labeled in a similar fashion. Please see below for an example of this using 1995 vintage data for bankcard loans.

  Current Write-Offs Closed Pos. Other Bankruptcy Total Delinquent
  xeqbccurm.us xeqbcwofm.us xeqbcclpm.us xeqbcothm.us xeqbcbkpm.us xeqbcdelm.us
31-Jul-05 3375607 55431 59557 53842 17493 598010
31-Aug-05 3285628 44007 37747 21208 11292 573735
30-Sep-05 3181813 50946 46089 26499 13438 540578
31-Oct-05 3089582 42659 42163 25670 14799 507518
30-Nov-05 3013391 41298 36260 18330 20983 466838
31-Dec-05 2942383 33800 37113 17681 9686 439566
31-Jan-06 2881226 24580 30155 13207 3473 429308
28-Feb-06 2826541 24630 29345 20486 1953 407579
31-Mar-06 2773289 29618 42488 10866 2577 375282
30-Apr-06 2731087 21234 30900 14704 1945 348701
31-May-06 2681877 21358 29115 12438 1889 333111
30-Jun-06 2623061 21678 36776 9941 1970 321562
31-Jul-06 2573239 19387 25241 13720 1617 311419
31-Aug-06 2407307 21286 29492 128571 2039 295963
30-Sep-06 2443567 16426 23358 -74739 1589 293069
31-Oct-06 2354069 17310 22352 56809 1658 284438
30-Nov-06 2311371 18989 21834 8429 1652 276232
31-Dec-06 2262321 20244 24755 9286 1615 269382

 

  Sum of All Outcomes Cur + Del + Foreclosure Default + Prepay + Bankrupt
Active Begin Active End  Terminated (t) Begin(t)-End(t-1)
31-Jul-05 4159940 3973617 132481  
31-Aug-05 3973617 3859363 93046 0
30-Sep-05 3859363 3722391 110473 0
31-Oct-05 3722391 3597100 99621 0
30-Nov-05 3597100 3480229 98541 0
31-Dec-05 3480229 3381949 80599 0
31-Jan-06 3381949 3310534 58208 0
28-Feb-06 3310534 3234120 55928 0
31-Mar-06 3234120 3148571 74683 0
30-Apr-06 3148571 3079788 54079 0
31-May-06 3079788 3014988 52362 0
30-Jun-06 3014988 2944623 60424 0
31-Jul-06 2944623 2884658 46245 0
31-Aug-06 2884658 2703270 52817 0
30-Sep-06 2703270 2736636 41373 0
31-Oct-06 2736636 2638507 41320 0
30-Nov-06 2638507 2587603 42475 0
31-Dec-06 2587603 2531703 46614 0


Related Releases
CreditForecast 4.0 - Historical