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Forecast Note: Cross-country - Data inputs to global macro model [Nov 2018]
Monday, 05 Nov 2018 17:28 ET
By Richard Cross
Summary
November 2018 -- A summary of changes to historical datasets that will be integrated into the November vintage of the Moody's Analytics global macro model (five countries impacted).
Detail

Changes to model inputs

Inputs to the Moody's Analytics forecast models encompass both historical verbatim datasets and Moody's Analytics historical estimates. Changes include both choice of series and revisions to series.

  • Germany (FPPIQ.IDEU) - Producer price index. Rebased to 2015.
  • Laos (FBPDIALQ.ILAO) - BOP direct investment. Revised by IMF.
  • Nigeria (FRGTSTQ.INGA) - Treasury bill rate. We switched source to country's central bank because of accuracy issues with IMF IFS.
  • Nigeria (FRLENDQ.INGA) - Central bank lending rate. Ibid.
  • Oman (FLBRQ.IOMN) - Unemployment rate. Significant revisions by the World Bank.
  • Switzerland (FGGDEBTLQ.ICHE) - General government debt. Source adopted a new framework, which revised the level.

Changes to forecast mnemonics

None.

See also

Other
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Related ReleaseU.S. Forecast - Baseline
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Related ReleaseU.S. Forecast Alternative Scenarios
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13 Sep 2019Sep 2019