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Estimates Revision: Canada subnational - GDP for CMAs
Friday, 11 Jan 2019 17:06 ET
By Daniel Luckenbach
Summary
January 2018 -- To improve the quality of our estimates of gross domestic product by industry for metro areas in Canada, we have changed the calculation method for total GDP (99 quarterly series revised from 1991).
Detail

Background: Moody's Analytics estimates gross product originating, by NAICS industry and aggregate thereof, for Canada at the geo levels of country, province, and census metropolitan area (CMA). Additivity across industry aggregates exists at current prices but not chained prices.

Motivation: At the CMA geo level, the three-sector industry aggregates (primary, secondary and tertiary, a.k.a. A*3) are calculated as the sum over 2-digit industries, whereas the all-industry aggregate is calculated as the sum over 3-digit industries. This causes a minor discrepancy between the sum over A*3 and the all-industry aggregate.

Response: We have altered the methodology for the all-industry aggregate to be compatible with the A*3 aggregates, i.e., the sum over 2-digit industries.

Methodology

  • Before: Create annual benchmark for available periods using source-reported total GVA. To quarterize data, apply the growth rates of the sum of 3-digit industries. Extend forward and backward using the sum of 3-digit industries.
  • After: Create annual benchmark for available periods using source-reported total GVA. To quarterize data, apply the growth rates of the sum of 2-digit industries. Extend forward and backward using the sum of 2-digit industries.

What you will see: For current-price estimates, there is no change to the figures, because the 2-digit to 3-digit industry relationships are programmatically enforced, thus making the two calculation methods functionally equivalent. This enforcement cannot occur for the chained-price estimates (lack of additivity is the chief drawback of the chained-price method of inflation adjustment), so all periods are revised, for all 33 CMAs. There is no change to the corpus of the series, mnemonics, or properties.

Properties: Billions of chained year-2012 Canadian dollars, year-2009 U.S. dollars, or year-2010 euros (Bil. Ch. 2012 CAD, Bil. Ch. 2009 USD, Bil. Ch. 2010 EUR) SAAR), seasonally adjusted at an annualized rate (SAAR).

The estimates reside in the historical catalog (Canada » National Accounts » by Value Add » Moody's Analytics Estimated » Constant prices) and include, for example:

  • RGDP$Q.ICAN_MQUC    = Gross product - Total, (Bil. Ch. 2012 CAD, SAAR) - for Quebec
  • RGDPUSD$Q.ICAN_MEDM = (Bil. Ch. 2009 USD, SAAR) - for Edmonton
  • RGDPEUR$Q.ICAN_CAL  = (Bil. Ch. 2010 EUR, SAAR) - for Calgary

Because catalog locations are subject to change, the upper-right search box on DataBuffet.com provides a "find in catalog" mode that accepts a mnemonic.

Other
Related ReleaseGross Value Added - Subnational
SourceMoody's Analytics (ECCA)
FrequencyQuarterly
GeographyCanada
Upcoming
Release DateReference date
04 Jun 20194Q 2018
11 Nov 20194Q 2018