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Forecast Note: U.S. - Fiserv Case-Shiller® Home Price Index Forecast - Scenarios Updated Monthly
Thursday, 18 Dec 2008 17:09 ET
By Celia Chen
Summary
December 2008 -- The scenarios portion of the Moody's Economy.com® Fiserv Case-Shiller® Home Price Index Forecast will now be updated monthly, rather than quarterly.
Detail

The forecast packaged produced by Moody's Economy.com® based on the Fiserv Case-Shiller® Home Price Index (CSI) consists of two parts: a Current forecast, plus a set of five Scenarios (a Baseline plus four Alternatives).

The Scenarios will now be updated monthly, 12 times per year, as with the Current forecast.

As before, the Current model will be posted in the first two weeks of every month.  The Scenarios will follow on about the 20th of every month.  These time frames are approximations, as the updates depend on completion of the U.S. macro forecast and its scenarios, which may be delayed by rapidly changing economic conditions or other circumstances.

Until now, the Current forecast model has been updated once per month, incorporating not only the quarterly CSI data but other higher-frequency indicators.  However, the Scenarios have been updated only once per quarter.  These two divergent schedules have caused some confusion among clients, in particular when comparing the Current and Baseline forecasts; these are computed using the same assumptions, and therefore sometimes match.  The window during which they do not match has now been reduced from two months to approximately one week.

Other
Related ReleaseCoreLogic Case-Shiller House Price Index Forecast Scenarios
SourceMoody's Analytics (ECCA)
FrequencyMonthly
GeographyUnited States
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