The Sahm Rule, proposed by Claudia Sahm of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, describes a proposed trigger for stimulus payments to individuals based on movements of the national unemployment rate. The Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to its low during the previous 12 months.
Data Buffet now carries this recession indicator, as well as a boolean variable which indicates when the indicator reaches the 0.5 threshold. The series start at March 1949.
The series reside in the historical catalog:
and are:
- CI%SAHMRECUM.IUSA = Index points, (%, NSA)
- CIBSAHMRECUM.IUSA = Indicator if index exceeds 0.5% threshold, (Boolean, NSA)
References
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