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Changes to model inputs
Inputs to the Moody's Analytics forecast models encompass both historical verbatim datasets and Moody's Analytics historical estimates. Changes originate at the source (revision or redefinition), our choice of inputs (source entity, specific indicator, or variant of an indicator), and our pre-processing of inputs (frequency conversion, seasonal adjustment, etc.).
We may construct estimates as an interim solution when a source does not report in a convenient analytic form, but always prefer to use a source verbatim. A change from a cross-national source to a national source improves timeliness, transparency and consistency, unless otherwise noted.
In the table below, when a country name is marked (*), the change flows from a single country into relevant regional aggregates. The abbreviations "NCB" and "NSI" refer to the national central bank and national statistical institute of each country, respectively. The abbreviation "n.o.s." means "not otherwise stated".
Changes to methodology
For housing affordability for Australia, we have learned from the source (HIA) that the input HPIHIAFFUQ.IUSA does not need to be seasonally adjusted.
For the monetary policy rate of Denmark, we changed the input from the central bank discount rate (IR%CBDISCUD.IDNK) to its CD rate (IR%CBCDUD.IDNK). We now forecast the former as FRDISCQ.IDNK.
For the direct investment and portfolio investment components of balance of payments for Spain, we have ceased to use Eurostat as an input, because it is not a reliable source, i.e., it unpredictably retracts and re-releases the pertinent series.
Changes to mnemonics
None.
Changes to metadata
None.
Summary table
| Country | Variable | Comment | Revised interval if not entire series | Forecast mnemonic(s) |
|---|
| Australia |
Housing affordability |
Changed methodology re: HPIHIAFFUQ.IAUS. See historical. |
|
FHAFFQ.IAUS |
| Bahrain |
CPI |
Changed source from IMF to national. See historical. |
|
FCPIQ.IBHR |
| Belgium |
BOP |
Revised seasonal factors. |
|
FTABDQ.IBEL
FTABLQ.IBEL |
| Croatia |
BOP |
Revised seasonal factors. |
|
FTABDQ.IHRV
FTABLQ.IHRV |
| Denmark |
Monetary policy |
Changed source series. See historical. |
|
FRMPOLQ.IDNK |
| France |
Long-term government bond yield |
Changed source from Eurostat to national, to improve timeliness. |
|
FRGT10YQ.IUSA |
| Ireland |
GVA by industry |
Changed source from Eurostat to national. See historical. |
|
FGDP?$Q.IIRL |
| Ireland |
Ibid |
Re-referenced from 2016 to 2017. See estimate. |
|
|
| Lebanon |
Monetary policy |
Incorporated national data, to improve timeliness. |
|
FRMPOLQ.ILBN |
| Lebanon |
LFS |
Revised by source (World Bank). |
|
FLBFQ.ILBN
FLBEQ.ILBN
FLBUQ.ILBN |
| New Zealand |
Lending rate |
Changed source from IMF to national. Different definition: from weighted average lending rate, to business lending. See historical. |
|
FRLENDQ.INZL |
| Singapore |
Compensation of employees |
Changed source from Moody's Analytics to national. See historical. |
|
FYPEWSLQ.ISGP
FYPEWSL$Q.ISGP
FYPEWSDQ.ISGP
FYPEWSD$Q.ISGP |
| Slovakia |
National accounts |
Revised by source. |
Before 2010 |
|
| Spain |
BOP current account balance |
Revised seasonal factors. |
|
FTABDQ.IESP
FTABLQ.IESP |
| Spain |
BOP direct investment |
Changed methodology re: Eurostat. |
|
FBPDIALQ.IESP
FBPDILLQ.IESP |
| Spain |
BOP portfolio investment |
Ibid |
|
FBPPIBLQ.IESP |
| Sweden |
National accounts |
Benchmark revision. See historical. |
|
|
| Turkey |
Government debt |
Changed source from IMF to national. |
|
FGGDEBTLQ.ITUR |
| Turkey |
Retail sales |
Incorporated national data, to improve timeliness. |
|
FRTSALESIQ.ITUR
FRTSALESI$Q.ITUR
FRTSALESLQ.ITUR
FRTSALESL$Q.ITUR |
| U.K. |
National accounts |
Comprehensive revision: methodological changes, new data. |
|
|
| U.S. |
Z.1 household assets and net worth |
Revised by source (FRB): Owner-occupied residential real estate: changes to source data and methodology. |
|
FZFLHHA1Q.IUSA
FNWRE.IUSA
FNWRE$.IUSA
FZFLHHNWQ.IUSA
FZFLHHNW$Q.IUSA
FZFL152010005Q.IUSA
FZFL155035015Q.IUSA |
| U.S. |
Z.1 debt and equity shares of asset financing |
Revised by source (FRB): nonfinancial corporate data, valuation of direct investment. |
|
FDEBT.IUSA
FEQUITY.IUSA |
| U.S. |
NAR existing home sales |
Revised seasonal factors. |
|
FHX1MED.IUSA
FHX1SUPQ.IUSA
FHXCUSPQ.IUSA
FHXAFF.IUSA |
See also
Forecasts:
Historical and estimates not linked above:
Background and terminology:
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