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The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the 2013 Comprehensive Revisions to National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) data in phases from July 31 through August 16 (citation). The changes to tables and data measurement methodology necessitated extensive changes to the Moody's Analytics U.S. macroeconomic model, which prevented us from including the revisions in our August baseline vintage (see related article).
We have produced a preliminary version of our U.S. baseline forecast that includes both the NIPA revisions and new population projections. The "NIPA Benchmark Revision" forecast (USFOR_NBR.db) is now accessible on Data Buffet and will serve as the starting point for the creation of our September baseline forecast, to be published around September 9 (see production schedule). The changes will remain in all subsequent baseline and alternative scenario vintages. For more information about the forecast implications, please consult "Scenario Descriptions - United States NIPA Benchmark Revision 2013" in the Reference Files section.
Definitional changes have necessitated that we add, drop and rename select historical series (see related article) and the corresponding forecast series; a concordance appears in the attached Excel workbook. To ensure that legacy baskets with schedules run properly, we have aliased the renamed series to their former mnemonics, but this is transitional; we will phase out the aliases over several months. New series are temporarily unavailable through the Geography Wizard (until the September baseline) but may be retrieved by mnemonic in Basket and Chart modes.
Note that new series (footnoted "5" in the attached concordance) have transitional names in USFOR_NBR.db, e.g., FIFNIPQ_NBR.US. When the September vintage of USFOR.db is posted, they will be named as, e.g., FIFNIPQ.US.
When using the NIPA dataset, keep in mind that:
- Indexes are seasonally adjusted (SA) and price levels are at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR).
- The index base year and currency reference year have changed from 2005 to 2009.
- Real (inflation-adjusted) series have a "$" character in their mnemonics; the corresponding nominal (current-price) series do not.
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